Big 12 Tournament Preview: Seedings, Clinching Scenarios with 1 Game to Go

We are down to the final game. Monday and Tuesday gave us a full slate that helped clarify the top of the conference a bit, but the bottom stayed just as muddled as before. But at least now there is only 1 game left, so we can give you definitive clinching scenarios for each seed for each team.

As a reminder, the tiebreaker rules for the Big 12 tournament can get a bit complicated, starting out simply enough with head-to-head. After that, it looks at records against each rank, with all tied teams considered in one block before any tiebreakers are applied to that block. There is an exception if there are only two teams tied in that block and one of them swept the other. After that, it gets really wild, looking at the road records of the tied teams. Fortunately, none of our tiebreaker scenarios can get to that point.

So as it stands right now, the Big 12 Tournament seeding is this:

1. Kansas (13-4).
2. West Virginia (11-6).
3. Texas Tech (10-7).
4. TCU (9-8). Wins tiebreaker over Kansas State due to record against West Virginia (1-1 vs 0-2)
5. Kansas State (9-8).
6. Baylor (8-9).
7. Texas (7-10). Wins tiebreaker over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State due to round-robin record (3-1 vs 1-3 and 2-2).
8. Oklahoma State (7-10). Loses tiebreaker to Texas and wins tiebreaker over Oklahoma due to round-robin record (2-2 vs 3-1 and 1-3)
9. Oklahoma (7-10).
10. Iowa State(4-12)

Here are the clinching scenarios for each team (with range of possible seeds in parentheses):

Kansas (1)
Clinched 1 seed.

West Virginia (2-3)
Can clinch 2 seed with:
Win vs Texas OR
Texas Tech loss vs TCU.

Texas Tech (2-3)
Can clinch 2 seed with:
Win vs TCU AND West Virginia loss vs Texas.
Wins all tiebreakers over TCU and Kansas State, so the 3 seed is their floor.

TCU (4-5)
Can clinch the 4 seed with:
Win vs Texas Tech OR
Kansas State loss vs Baylor.
Even if both teams lose (and Baylor wins), the tie of TCU, KSU and Baylor at 9-9 results in a TCU win due to round-robin record (3-1 vs 2-2 and 1-3).

Will receive the 5 seed with:
Loss vs Texas Tech AND Kansas State win vs Baylor.

Kansas State (4-6)
Can clinch 4 seed with:
Win vs Baylor AND TCU loss vs Texas Tech.

Can clinch 5 seed with:
Win vs Baylor AND TCU win vs Texas Tech (loses to both TCU and Texas Tech on round-robin record) OR
Loss vs Baylor AND TCU loss vs Texas Tech (loses to TCU and beats Baylor on round-robin record)

Can clinch 6 seed with:
Loss vs Baylor AND TCU win vs Texas Tech (loses tiebreaker to Baylor on record vs Kansas)

Baylor (5-7)
Can clinch 5 seed with:
Win vs Kansas State AND TCU win vs Texas Tech

Can clinch 7 seed with:
Loss vs Kansas State AND Oklahoma win vs Iowa State AND Oklahoma State loss vs Kansas AND Texas loss vs West Virginia

Any other scenario will give Baylor the 6 seed.

Texas (7-9)
Can clinch 7 seed with:
Win vs West Virginia AND
Oklahoma State loss vs Kansas AND/OR Oklahoma win vs Iowa State
OR
Loss vs West Virginia AND Oklahoma State loss vs Kansas AND Oklahoma loss vs Iowa State
Can clinch 8 seed with:
Win vs West Virginia AND Oklahoma State win vs Kansas AND Oklahoma loss vs Iowa State OR
Loss vs West Virginia AND Oklahoma State win vs Kansas AND Oklahoma loss vs Iowa State
Can clinch 9 seed with:
Loss vs West Virginia AND Oklahoma win vs Iowa State

Oklahoma State (7-9)
Can clinch 7 seed with:
Win vs Kansas AND
Oklahoma loss vs Iowa State OR
Texas loss vs West Virginia AND Baylor win vs Kansas State
Can clinch 8 seed with:
Win vs Kansas AND Oklahoma win vs Iowa State AND
Kansas State win vs Baylor AND/OR Texas win vs West Virginia
OR
Loss vs Kansas AND
Texas loss vs West Virginia AND/OR Oklahoma loss vs Iowa State
Can clinch 9 seed with:
Loss vs Kansas AND Texas win vs West Virginia AND Oklahoma loss vs Iowa State

Oklahoma (6-9)
Can clinch 6 seed with:
Win vs Iowa State AND Baylor loss vs Kansas State AND Oklahoma State loss vs Kansas AND Texas loss vs West Virginia

Can clinch 7 seed with:
Win vs Iowa State AND Texas loss vs West Virginia AND
Baylor win vs Kansas State AND Oklahoma State loss vs Kansas OR
Oklahoma State win vs Kansas AND Baylor loss vs Kansas State

Can clinch 8 seed with:
Win vs Iowa State AND
Oklahoma State loss vs Kansas AND Texas win vs West Virginia OR
Oklahoma State win vs Kansas AND Texas loss vs West Virginia AND Baylor loss vs Kansas State

Can clinch 9 seed with:
Win vs Iowa State AND Texas win vs West Virginia AND Oklahoma State win vs Kansas OR
Loss vs Iowa State

Iowa State (10)
Clinched 10 seed.