Big 12 Football Week 10 Picks

Last Week: 2-2

Overall: 27-28-1

Texas Tech @ TCU (-8) Sat. 11:00 FOX TCU 37-27

In my weekly game of guess the lines, I went with TCU by 7. I do not think the Horned Frog train stops rolling this week. At home a week after winning by 10 on the road, I believe they win by 10 again.

Baylor @ Oklahoma (-3.5) Sat. 2:00 ESPN+ OU 31-24

I think this line is right on the nose, and I believe OU is the better team, especially at home. The question then is do the Sooners win by more or less than 3 points? I say more and will take OU.

Okla. State @ Kansas (-1) Sat. 2:30 FS1 KU 38-31

It looks like a battle of the backup quarterbacks this week in Lawrence, advantage KU. The SP+ offensive ratings for these teams are OSU 12 and KU 22. A change at quarterback would definitely lower expectations for the Cowboys’ offense, and probably make KU the better offense. The Cowboys have the better defense, their SP+ rankings are OSU at 60 to KU at 88. As a result, this should be a high-scoring affair. A week of rest should help the Jayhawk defense and give KU just enough to pull this game out and be bowl eligible for the first time in over a decade.

West Virginia @ Iowa State(-7) Sat. 2:30 ESPN+ WV 33-27

I am a bit baffled by this line. Not that Iowa State is favored, though that does surprise me, but by how much they are favored. Have the linemakers not watched Iowa State this season? They are in the business of tight losses. Specifically 3-point losses to Texas and Kansas, and a 1-point loss to K-State. Throw in a 7-point loss to Baylor and it is hard for me to make the Cyclones a favor against any Big 12 opponent this season. Maybe they break through for their first conference win of the season, but I am taking the Mountaineers.

Texas (-.2) @ K-State Sat. 6:00 FS1 K-State 38-31

This is the second line of the week that surprised me. I know the SP+ loves the 5-3 Longhorns, they are number 6. K-State is at home and coming off their most complete win of the season. The Longhorns have had two true road games this season. They lost 37-34 to Texas Tech in Lubbock and lost 41-34 to the Cowboys in Stillwater. My question is why do the line setters think the Longhorns are the better team in this game? I put the line at K-State -7, and I am sticking with the Cats.