Big 12 Football Week 9 Picks

Last Week: 2-2

Overall: 25-26-1

Oklahoma (-1.5) @ Iowa State Sat. 11:00 FS1 Oklahoma 31-17

So, I am dumbfounded by this line. I know OU had a terrible stretch and their only recent victory is at home against a slumping KU team, but they have had a week of rest and the Sooners are a totally different team with Dillon Gabriel on the field. Iowa State is also coming off a bye but has shown no life in the conference this season, going 0-4 to date. Iowa State has a nice defense but has no offense and I do not see that changing this week. OU may not score 31 as I have predicted, but I see no scenario except two where Iowa State is competitive late in the 4th quarter. The two scenarios? One, Dillion Gabriel is hurt early in the game. Two, OU decides the trip to Ames is not worth the effort and sends Norman North High School in their place,

TCU (-7.5) @ West Virginia Sat. 11:00 ESPN TCU 38-18

Unlike the OU/Iowa State game, this line seems much more accurate, and despite the Horned Frogs making the long trip to Morgantown, I think they will handle the Mountaineers rather easily. It could be a letdown spot for TCU, but the Mountaineers seem to be a bit beat up, and despite a victory in their last home game against Baylor, they are trending in the wrong direction. The Mountaineers may be at a tipping point for Neal Brown and his future in Morgantown. His overall record at West Virginia is sub-.500 and the team does not seem to be getting better. The Dana Holgerson era of Mountaineer football must seem like a distant memory. Even if that is extra motivation for his players, I do not think it is enough to win the game or even cover this week.

Okla. State @ K-State (-1.5) Sat. 2:30 FOX OSU 28-24

Just like the OU/Iowa State game, I was surprised by this line. It never occurred to me the Wildcats would be favored in this game, but they are. Why are the Wildcats favored? The answer is defense. K-State seems to have a stingy one, and the Cowboys seem suspect in stopping the run. So why am I surprised by the line? Mainly because most football teams play with a quarterback on offense, and I am not sure K-State has one this week. Will Adrian Martinez play? If not, can Will Howard go and be good enough? Will Deuce Vaugh just take direct snaps? This is where the game turns. If Martinez is healthy and plays significant time, my pick is shaky. If he is not, I think my pick is solid. Either way, I am with the Cowboys this week.

Baylor @ Texas Tech (-2.5) Sat. 6:30 ESPN2 TTU 33-27

This is the most accurate line of the week. This is a battle of two teams that have produced overall similar results this season and are tied in the conference standings. Recency bias is going to be my play here. Despite Baylor looking dominating against KU in the first half last week, they did not look nearly as good in the second half. Texas Tech on the other hand looked totally dominating at home last week against West Virginia. With those results in the front of my mind, I will roll with the Red Raiders.