TCU Preview

Kansas welcomes TCU to Allen Fieldhouse for Senior Night, and it could be the 500th win at Kansas for Bill Self.

It’s been a season to forget for TCU, as they currently rank last in the Big 12 Conference in efficiency. It’s been particularly bad on offense, where the Frogs have scored over a point per possession just five times in Big 12 play. Their main shot to win tonight frankly is by chucking threes: TCU leads the conference in threes taken as a percentage of their field goal attempts. While they’re shooting threes at 33 percent overall, they have shown the occasional ability to light it up from deep, going 14-27 in their first Big 12 game, and 9-20 against Baylor in their most recent victory.

That’s about where it ends for them, however. The Frogs rank 9th in both 2-point and free throw percentage, and last in the Big 12 in turnover rate. For the season they have done an OK job grabbing offensive rebounds, but only rebounded 23 percent of their misses in the first matchup against Kansas.

Defensively, TCU has been a little better, but they still sit 7th in terms of adjusted efficiency. They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 8th in forcing turnovers, the latter of which is obviously good news for Kansas. They did a decent job last matchup, with the Jayhawks shooting under 50 percent from two and committing turnovers on almost a fourth of their possessions, but it is tough to see that happening to Kansas at home in this matchup.

Players to watch

Desmond Bane, 6-6 senior wing

Maybe the most underappreciated player in the league, Bane is shooting 42 percent from three this year on high volume, and has been the best passer on the team as well. Kansas will need a healthy Marcus Garrett to slow him down, but he’s one of those guys you just have to limit moreso than stop altogether.

Kevin Samuel, 6-11 sophomore center

Samuel was held scoreless in the first matchup, but on the season he is shooting 65 percent on twos. He’s also one of the best shot blockers in the entire country, and is a formidable challenge for Udoka Azubuike down low.

RJ Nembhard, 6-5 sophomore guard

Nembhard is the other best passer on the team, almost tripling his assist rate from where it was as a freshman. However, he could probably stand to shoot a bit less, as he is under 40 percent on twos and under 30 percent on threes.

The Pick

Kansas has won 36 straight senior day games, and it’s tough to see them losing against probably the worst team in the league. Even if Udoka Azubuike can’t go in this one, and even if Garrett and Dotson are a bit hobbled, I like the Jayhawks to win relatively comfortably and I think they will cover as well, winning 78-60.

2020 Record ATS: 17-11