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Texas Tech Preview

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It’s the annual Homecoming game in Lawrence.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 05 Oklahoma at Kansas Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Kansas makes its way back to Lawrence after a game that was both exciting and disappointing down in Austin last week. The Jayhawks will host Texas Tech for Homecoming, which has been a bad idea in the past, as you’ll see shortly.

The game kicks off at 6 PM from Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, KS, and will be televised on FS1.

PREGAME

KU has had Tech as its Homecoming opponent three times over the past 10 years, dropping all three matchups.

KU’s last Homecoming win was in 2009 against Iowa State.

Tech leads the Big 12 with 13 takeaways so far in 2019.

Darrell Stuckey will be added to KU’s Ring of Honor at halftime, the fifth member of the 2008 Orange Bowl team to do so.

Pooka Williams ranks fourth in the NCAA in career all-purpose yards per game among active players.

Carter Stanley has 115 consecutive pass attempts without an INT.

Stanley is tied with Bill Whittemore for fourth in career TD passes at KU with 29. Stanley needs just 7 more TDs to take sole possession of second on that list.

Kansas is 8-9 all-time on October 25, but has lost its last 6 games played on this date.

Kansas is just 1-19 all-time versus Texas Tech.

KU has never defeated Texas Tech in Lawrence.

FIRST DOWN

Texas Tech hasn’t missed a beat at the quarterback spot despite Jett Duffey filling in for an injured Alan Bowman. The two players have thrown nearly the same amount of passes so far this season, and as you can see, have eerily similar numbers:

Duffey: 109-159, 1149 yds, 6 TD, 2 INT

Bowman: 100-153, 1007, 6 TD, 3 INT

If anything, Duffey has actually been a bit of an upgrade, as he’s averaging 0.6 yards per attempt more than Bowman was while completing 3.2% more of his pass attempts. What I’m trying to say is, don’t let the fact that TTU is on their backup QB give you any thoughts that KU might have an advantage there.

SECOND DOWN

Back in the preseason, I thought Tech might be a little questionable on defense, and that certainly seems to be the case. Through seven games, it looks like the Texas Longhorns might have the worst defense in the Big 12, but it should be noted that Tech has allowed its P5 opponents to average 37 points per game. Even though there’s now some film on Brent Dearmon’s offense out there, Kansas should be able to add to it each week and find some big plays against this Tech defense.

THIRD DOWN

For the second week in a row, Kansas is facing a team that has been on the positive side of turnover luck, as Tech (+5) ranks first in the Big 12 in takeaways, while Kansas (-3) ranks 8th despite a +2 margin last week in Austin. As we discussed last week, turnovers are mostly luck. Once again, if we can see some regression to the mean from both teams, this game could swing in KU’s favor.

FOURTH DOWN

Texas Tech is currently ranked #41 by S&P+, with the #37 offense and the #54 defense. The Red Raiders are one of four teams in the S&P+ top-45 with a losing record (3-4).

Following last week’s game at Texas, KU’s offense moved from #72 to #63, but the defense dropped from #73 to #90. Yikes. KU comes in at #80 overall.

PREDICTION

Texas Tech opened up as an 8-point favorite, and bettors quickly moved that line down to 3.5. It has now stabilized at 5, give or take a half point. Unlike last week where I though the Jayhawks were getting too little credit, here I think Kansas might be getting way, way too much, and we’re seeing an overreaction after scoring 48 points in Austin.

The Tech offense is solid, and TJ Vasher could give KU nightmares. This Kansas defense gives me the chills, however, so once again, I think we’ll see a lot of points in an exciting, up and down game. I just don’t see how the Jayhawks stop the Red Raiders enough times to come out on the plus side of the scoreboard.

The recipe for this game is the same as last week: win on third down (offensively and defensively), throw the ball down the field, get Pooka the ball in space, and I’ll add one more - MAKE YOUR FIELD GOALS. Or at the very least, don’t let any get blocked.

When it all boils down, I think we’ll have to wait one more week to get a statement win for Les Miles. I’ll take Texas Tech 48, Kansas 42.

EXTRA POINT

Todd Reesing obviously ranks #1 at KU in career passing TDs (90). David Jaynes (35) and Frank Seurer (30) sit at #2 and #3 - for now.