I didn’t update MPR last week because every team only played one conference game. Now, we see our sample size jump by three games. Normally, I’d say this gives the Big 12 a chance to take shape as we head down the home stretch, but looking at the results so far, it’s hard to say the conference is “taking shape.” Iowa State has worked its way from the middle tier to jumping KU and making the top 3. Oklahoma State, once as low as 8th, is now a net positive team in terms of expected efficiency margin. Oklahoma and Texas suck, but Tech no longer seems to suck quite as much. It’s anyone’s guess as to how this will all play out. Here are this week’s ratings:
KU is still looking good offensively, but not as good as they drop to 3rd, and they’re back in the red defensively after one week of breaking even. Remember that these ratings are all based on expected performance given how their opponents have performed, so it’s not just a measure of scoring margin, it’s how much better or worse you’ve done against the opposition than their opponents have. The schedules are fairly even right now anyway, with this being near the halfway point. The Jayhawks finish the year with four straight opponents in the bottom half, so they just need to weather this stretch of @Kansas State, West Virginia, and @Baylor as three of their next four.