Kansas Basketball Advanced Stats: Big 12 Marginal Performance Rankings

Last week, I introduced a new means of ranking the teams in the Big 12. This ratings system is based entirely on efficiency, measured in terms of points scored and points allowed per possession in conference play. While I had a colorful suggestion as to the name of the ratings courtesy of 2.1, this is a family site, so we’ll stick to Marginal Peformance Rating (MPR).

To revisit the methodology, each team is rated for each game they play based on their PPP scored versus their opponent’s PPP allowed in conference play, and vice versa. These add up to give us the team’s efficiency margin versus the opponent’s overall efficiency margin. This gives us an idea of how the team has performed versus expectations based on their opponents’ results to date.

For example, if KU scores 1.1 PPP against a team allowing 1.0 PPP, they essentially earn an offensive point for that game. If their efficiency margin against said team ends up being +.15, and that opponent’s EM in conference play had been -.25, KU would get a point overall. It’s then looked at in terms of points per 100 possessions, meaning that point becomes 10 points in the grand scheme of things.

Anyway, one quick change from last week. A commenter from the old days, Dagger108, emailed me and recommended using averages instead of totals, since bye weeks are coming and not every team will have played the same number of games. Touche, Dagger, touche. I’ve heeded his wise words and turned the total score into the average score per game. It only affects the numerical rating, not the relative distance between teams or the order in which they appear, so it makes more sense to do it that way.

Anyway, here are this week’s updated rankings:

As you can see, the biggest movers were West Virginia and TCU, and it’s easy to see why. West Virginia blew out the former #1 Baylor, destroying a Baylor defense that, until then, had been suffocating in conference play, and helped knock the Bears from a net positive offensive team to a net negative. TCU went 2-0 on the week and really boosted their previously poor offensive rating by putting up 1.24 PPP on an Iowa State defense that has generally been stingy so far.

Kansas’ offense is still at the top, but not by as much after struggling with Oklahoma State, and their defense remains at the lower end of the middle of the Big 12.