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RCT Bets the Big 12: Week 3

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It turns out this is harder than it looks.

Arkansas v TCU Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

And back down to reality last week. My career as a professional handicapper is already over.

Or is it? I feel strong about this week’s slate of games. Let’s see if we can rebound.

Starting bank: $500

Last week’s bank: $631

Last Week: 2-5

Overall picks: 8-6

Last Week

Central Michigan @ Oklahoma State -21, LOST $10

Ohio @ Kansas -3, LOST $20

SMU @ Baylor Over 76, LOST $10

Arkansas @ TCU -7.5 LOST $10

UTEP @ Texas -28 WON $19

Iowa State +15 @ Iowa LOST $10

Texas Tech @ Arizona State Over 79.5 WON $19

New Bank: $609

So I followed up a 6-1 week with a 2-5 week. Blech. This is why we don’t bet real money, kids. Although I did preface last week by saying that I didn’t like any of the games, which is why the wagers were low and I didn’t lose that much in total. I guess that’s one vote for “follow your gut.” Although, this series is called “Betting the Big 12” and what fun would it be if I just said that I hate every game and I’m not betting anything?

No fun at all, that’s what.

So onward we go! The good news is, I already mentioned how much better I feel about this week’s games, and the wagers will reflect that confidence as I bet over half of my bank this week ($350 in total wagers).

Let’s hit it.

Baylor @ Rice

Line: Baylor -30.5

O/U: 65.5

Rice has yet to look good this year, mustering only 14 points in each of the first two games versus Western Kentucky and Army. The Owls have yet to play a home game, but will it matter against the Bears? My money says no.

My bet: $40 Baylor -30.5

Kansas @ Memphis

Line: Memphis -20.5

O/U: 60

The question you have to ask yourself here is, will KU score enough to make it difficult for Memphis to cover? I do think the defense is improved, but the Tigers have only played one game so far this year, and that was against an FCS team. Ergo, we know nothing about them. I’m guessing it will be another case of “they ran stuff against us we didn’t see on film.” The Tigers did turn it over three times in their opener, so if KU can get their special teams blunders fixed up, Kansas could have a decent shot to keep it close.

My bet: $20 Kansas +20.5

Iowa State @ TCU

Line: TCU -24

O/U: 61

TCU is scoring lots of points so far this season. Iowa State isn’t. While this matchup has traditionally been close, the last two years TCU has won by 24 and 52 points. Also, when I picked Iowa State last week, I threw out the stat that the Cy-Hawk game had been competitive for the previous five years. So while indeed past performance is not indicative of future results, I’m going with the home favorite here.

My bet: $40 TCU -24

Florida Atlantic @ Kansas State

Line: Kansas State -22.5

O/U: 49

This game is just screaming at me that it’s going to be one of those typical Bill Snyder cupcake 55-9 affairs. Therefore, I’m making two bets on this one. Don’t let me down, KSU.

My bet: $40 Kansas State -22.5 AND $40 on the OVER

Pittsburgh @ Oklahoma State

Line: Oklahoma State -6

O/U: 59

I think that we may have a case of “wrong team favored” here. Oklahoma State has to rebound from last week’s emotionally devastating loss, a loss that I’m not sure they’re handling very well. I’m pretty sure Pitt is better than Central Michigan, but as Ohio fans found out last week, college football is a funny game. I’d even consider taking the moneyline (Pitt to win straight up) in this one but what the hell, give me the points.

My bet: $40 Pittsburgh +6

Louisiana Tech @ Texas Tech

Line: Texas Tech -10.5

O/U: 80

It’s a battle of the technical colleges and crappy towns as west Lousiana’s Shreveport Bulldogs head to west Texas to face Lubbock’s Red Raiders. Louisiana Tech can kinda play some defense, which is something Texas Tech can’t say, and both teams can really light up the scoreboard. Seems silly to not play the Over/Under here.

My bet: $50 on the OVER

Ohio State @ Oklahoma

Line: Ohio State -1.5

O/U: 63

Most of the college football world will have their eyes on this one as Urban Meyer and Bob Stoops match wits in the first of a home-and-home series for these two schools. So far in the first two weeks we’ve seen good Oklahoma and bad Oklahoma while Ohio State has feasted on cupcakes. Ohio State has actually been carried by their defense as the offense has been slow-starting in both of their first two games. Oklahoma will be fired up for this one, as a loss pretty much ends any hopes of a playoff berth for the Sooners. Although I underestimated home field advantage when Texas took on Notre Dame in Week 1, there’s a completely different set of circumstances surrounding this game compared to UT-ND that makes me feel comfortable taking the Buckeyes.

My bet: $20 Ohio State -1.5

Texas @ California

Line: Texas -8

O/U: 80

Cal is scoring tons of points so far on the year but still fell to San Diego State last week. That doesn’t bode well for the Bears with Texas rolling into Berkley. Texas has the athletes and they’re on a roll right now.

My bet: $40 Texas -8

BONUS

Let’s throw $20 at a three-team parlay. Those typically pay out at 6 to 1, so we’ll see if we can hit it big here. Give me Kansas State -22.5, TCU -24, and the Over on LaTech/TTech.

DrCrushALot’s Picks of the Week

Each week, DrCrushALot will provide a maximum of five games that he likes.

Season record: 2-5

Last week: 0-3

Virginia @ Oregon -24.5 LOSS

Western Kentucky @ Alabama -29 LOSS

Eastern Michigan @ Missouri -25 LOSS

This week:

Last week I mentioned that my gut said don’t pick anything, so this makes it two votes for “follow your gut.” But like mikeville said, what fun would it be to have a series like this and then don’t bet anything?

Here are my top 3 picks for this week:

I will take Baylor -30 @ Rice. Baylor good, Rice not good.

Navy -6 @ Tulane. Navy’s running game is back and Tulane will be unable to stop it enough to keep the game within one score.

Georgia -6 @ Missouri. Eastern Michigan let us all down last week but I just don’t think MU will score enough against a legitimate team to be able to cover.