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RCT Bets the Big 12: Week 14

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As conference play winds down, so does my bankroll!

NCAA Football: Baylor vs Texas Tech Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Well last week wasn’t terrible. KU didn’t get blown out. Texas and Baylor both lost again. And in the end, I made a little bit of (fake) money! The only thing that could have made it better is if Arkansas would have beaten Missouri, because, well, you know why.

Unfortunately, I discovered yet another mathematical error in my moneyline winnings calculations. Sooner or later I’ll get this right.

Starting Bank: $1500

+/- for the year: $

Last week’s bank: $1163

Corrected bank: $1203

LAST WEEK

TCU @ Texas -3, LOST $40

Baylor vs Texas Tech, TTU Moneyline, WON $74

Kansas +27 @ Kansas State, and the KU Moneyline, WON $36 and LOST $20

West Virginia @ Iowa State +7 and the Over, LOST $20 and WON $18

Week 13 Won/Loss: +$48

Last week’s bank: $1203

New bank: $1251

Last week: 3-3

Overall picks: 36-48-1

Well that wasn’t so bad. This whole betting against what I think I should do just might be the way to go. And the good news is, KU’s season is over, so I can’t throw away money on the Jayhawks’ moneyline anymore!

Standard reminder that this is purely for entertainment purposes only. I am not actually betting real money on these games. But if you are, obviously don’t take my advice ever, and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Bet with your head, not over it.

Kansas State @ TCU

Line: TCU -4.5

O/U: 52.5

Moneyline: +165

So, my initial thought here is wrong team favored. The problem with that line of thinking, however, is that TCU’s offense has been so hit or miss this year. TCU usually hangs its hat on its defense, but that hasn’t been reliable week to week either.

Meanwhile, K-State’s methodical run-but-don’t-pass offense has been effective against all the teams below them in the standings, but ineffective against all the teams above them in the standings.

I really have no idea which way to go here, so just like last week when I was indecisive, I guess I’ll go with the favorite.

My bet: $40 TCU -4.5 $40 Kansas State Moneyline

Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma

Line: Oklahoma -11

O/U: 81.5

Moneyline: +345

This line seems about right to me, although with Oklahoma’s offense, I would have expected it to be closer to 14 points than 10 points. They have scored 34 points or more in every game since Week 4.

However, Oklahoma State has also been on a roll offensively. Since Oct 1, their lowest output was 31 points, and that was last week against TCU. I keep hearing people say things along the lines of, “Oklahoma State can beat Oklahoma this weekend.” Well, great, I guess. Texas can beat Kansas. But they didn’t. Sooners roll in a blowout.

My bet: $40 Oklahoma -11 $40 Oklahoma State +11

Baylor @ West Virginia

Line: West Virginia -17

O/U: 68

Moneyline: +600

The Baylor free-fall continues. However, 17 points seems like an awful lot to cover for a West Virginia offense that has struggled at times. Baylor has six wins, but questions swirl on whether or not they would accept a bowl invite. The Bears literally have nothing to play for.

Then again, neither does West Virginia. The Mountaineers get third place in the Big 12 regardless of the outcome of this game (or the outcome of KSU-TCU due to tiebreaker). I don’t think WVU will pile it on Baylor, as much as I want them to.

My bet: $40 Baylor +17 $40 West Virginia -17

DrCrushALot’s Picks of the Week

Each week, DrCrushALot will provide a maximum of five games that he likes.

Season record: 24-22

Last week: 2-1

Arkansas -8 @ Missouri, LOSS

Washington -6 @ Washington State, WIN

Baylor @ Texas Tech +5.5, WIN

Can Doc finish the season over .500?

This week:

That Texas Tech pick was the easiest pick of the year. Baylor is in shambles.

My picks:

Kansas State +4.5 @ TCU. Which TCU team shows up? Not the one that can beat Bill Snyder. TCU is an easy pick here.

Troy -7 @ Georgia State. I don’t understand how a 4-7 team is only a one touchdown dog against a solid Troy team. Wrap on a Trojan here, Troy it is.

Wisconsin @ Penn State +2.5. Wrong team favored here. Penn State is roaring (although they shouldn’t even be on the field). Penn State is my pick.