Well… that’s it. After yet another terrible week, I’m nearly down to my last $100. This means I’ve managed to blow almost $400 in less than three months.
Wow. Kinda puts it all in perspective.
On the bright side, I did get my first moneyline win of the year, thank you Texas Tech. However, it still might be time for an “opposite week.” If not for a backdoor cover by Iowa State with 51 seconds left, this week would have been even worse.
Starting bank: $500
+/- for the year: -$292
Kansas State @ Iowa State +6.5, Won $27
West Virginia -4 @ Oklahoma State, Lost $50
Texas Tech @ TCU, Over 84.5 and the Texas Tech Moneyline, Lost $20 and Won $44
Baylor -3 @ Texas, Lost $50
Kansas +40 @ Oklahoma and the Kansas Moneyline, Lost $20 and Lost $10
Week 9 Won/Loss: -$99
Did I calculate that Moneyline win by Texas Tech correctly? It was +320 on $20. So (20*3.2)-20=44 profit.
Last week’s bank: $208
New bank: $109
Last week: 2-5
Overall picks: 26-35-1
So those guys you hear on the radio advertising 70% winning percentages? Worth every penny (if true). Going a combined 3-10-1 over the last two weeks has been absolutely brutal for both my (fake) bankroll and my (absolutely real) confidence.
Time for a cash infusion or this column is going to get real boring real quick. Since I’ll try to keep it going into basketball season, I’m likely gonna need some solid capital to work with. Luckily, my pal DrCrushALot hooked me up with his cousin, Alfonso, whom I’ll call “Fonzie.” Fonzie thinks we’ll make a lot of money together.
Apparently my thumbs depend on it, whatever that means.
Cash infusion: $1,000
Revised “starting” bank: $1,500
New bank: $1,109
Well let’s see what unexpected shenanigans will happen in the Big 12 this week. Hopefully I learned a valuable lesson last week, though. If I ever say, “Here, just take my money already!!” then I probably should go the other way on the game, because Vegas does indeed know something I don’t.
Standard reminder that this is purely for entertainment purposes only. I am not actually betting real money on these games. But if you are, obviously don’t take my advice ever, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
After all, nobody wants broken thumbs. (Or worse.)
Oklahoma @ Iowa State (Thursday, Nov 3)
Line: Oklahoma -20.5
Oh boy, this has trap game written all over it, right? OU travels to Ames on a Thursday night in November, nine days before starting a season-ending stretch of Baylor, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State. Oklahoma should be able to play their scout team and beat Iowa State by several touchdowns. The problem is, do you how upset I’ll be if Iowa State is within 50 points of Oklahoma? I don’t care if the Sooners don’t have Joe Mixon (suspension). If ISU plays them well, that means my beloved Jayhawks don’t even belong in the Sun Belt. According to odds conversion (gambling math), this Moneyline number means the Cyclones chance to win is approximately 9.25%. Last week, KU was less than a 0.495% chance to win (per Moneyline odds conversion).
I digress (but I really hope I used odds conversion correctly). Everything is telling me to take Oklahoma here, so obviously the correct play is Iowa State.
My bet: $30 Iowa State +20.5
Texas @ Texas Tech
Line: Texas -3.5
I honestly can’t decide on this one. I’ll try and talk it out. Just like Tech’s offense, my picks for Tech have been both hot and cold. Texas clearly has the better athletes, but is also a much better team at home than on the road. This is likely a huge home game for the Red Raiders, because how often do they get a “struggling” Texas program at home? But then again, Texas is out to prove something; they’re trying to save Charlie Strong’s job, which is likely a futile effort, although with its remaining schedule UT still has a shot at 8 wins and a decent bowl game. So it’s the battle of intangibles here.
Say hello once again to my old friend, #Motivation, but which side to take? I think Texas Tech clearly has more #Motivation than Texas, so the pick then is clear. But Texas has let me down on the road every time I’ve taken them, so I can’t in good conscience let the opposite pick play here. I’m sticking to my guns on this one.
My bet: $40 Texas Tech Moneyline
TCU @ Baylor
Line: Baylor -7.5
O/U: 69 (nice)
Now see, this one is interesting. How will Baylor react to their first loss of the season? Will they crumble and fall apart (like everyone hopes they will) now that the College Football Playoff is a pipe dream? Will the pressures of the offseason scandal finally get to them? Although I really, really hope so, I just don’t see it. Even though TCU has the ability to slow Baylor down (see the Tech game last week), I think the Bears rally for a big win after the letdown in Austin. So obviously, that won’t happen.
My bet: $20 TCU +7.5
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State
Line: Kansas State -3
What? I don’t get this line. Isn’t Oklahoma State way better than K-State? Didn’t they just pummel West Virginia, who up until last week had played like the best team in the Big 12? What does Vegas know that I don’t know? I want to bet OSU and they know it. Joke’s on them this time.
My bet: $30 Kansas State -3
Kansas @ West Virginia
Line: West Virginia -34.5
Is Kansas even bet-able anymore after whatever that was in Norman last week? The Jayhawks can’t score at all, not even on bad defenses. And KU’s trips to Morgantown since West Virginia joined the Big 12 have all been unmitigated disasters. I look for more of the same Saturday, which of course means as much as I don’t want to, I have to take the Jayhawks.
My bet: $30 Kansas +34.5 and $10 Kansas Moneyline
DrCrushALot’s Picks of the Week
Each week, DrCrushALot will provide a maximum of five games that he likes.
Season record: 13-18
Last week: 1-3
Virginia Tech -3.5 @ Pittsburgh, LOSS
Michigan -21 @ Michigan State, LOSS
Baylor -3 @ Texas, LOSS
Auburn -4.5 @ Ole Miss, WIN
Well at least Doc isn’t very good at this, either. Makes me feel a little better about myself anyway. Looks like the hook got him in the Virginia Tech game, and let’s be honest, we’re all glad Baylor lost, even if it cost us in our pick ‘ems.
Also I’ll point out that Doc is 2-2 when betting Michigan this year. Will he try the Wolverines again?
I’ve also noticed he likes taking road favorites, a strategy that doesn’t seem to be working very well. Is he gonna change it up?
Whaddya say, Doc?
I’ve been pretty busy this week, so I haven’t really had time to look at the lines. That said, here are this week's last-minute darts throws.
Texas A&M -13.5 @ Mississippi State. Texas A&M doesn’t want to give anyone a reason to move Washington or Ohio State up in the playoff poll.
Pittsburgh @ Miami FL -3. Miami. No real reason.
Florida @ Arkansas +5.5. Why Arkansas? Because they’re not playing Alabama this week.
Alabama -7.5 @ LSU. Not sure why this line is so low – Alabama.