Well, thanks to a little bit of luck, I had my best week of the season so far. Hooray for moneyline bets! Join with me as we “LOL” at Texas throughout the rest of the article this week.
Starting bank: $1500
+/- for the year: -$504
Last week’s bank: $996
Kansas State @ Baylor +2, LOST $40
Texas @ Kansas +24 and the KU Moneyline, WON $36 and WON $215
Oklahoma State @ TCU -4.5, LOST $40
Texas Tech @ Iowa State +3, WON $36
Oklahoma @ West Virginia +3.5, LOST $40
Week 12 Won/Loss: +$167
Last week’s bank: $996
New bank: $1163
Last week: 3-3
Overall picks: 33-45-1
Now see, here’s the dilemma I have. Deep in my heart of hearts, I KNEW I should have taken K-State last week. I also KNEW I should have taken Oklahoma State. I also KNEW I should have taken Oklahoma. Those were all well-reasoned, logical picks, but with the losing streak I was on, I had already decided to change it up and go with the opposite.
But here’s the flip side. I also KNEW I should have gone with Texas Tech, and they lost by 56 points. I also KNEW I should have gone with Texas, and they lost straight up to one of the worst teams in Division 1!
I SHOULD have had a perfect week. I easily COULD have had a perfect week. But that’s why it’s called “gambling” I suppose. Hindsight is 20/20. Insert third cliché here.
Yeah, my winnings were buoyed by finally hitting a KU moneyline wager. But I’ll take it! I’ll continue to wager against my well-reasoned thoughts, since that’s worked as well as anything recently.
Standard reminder that this is purely for entertainment purposes only. I am not actually betting real money on these games. But if you are, obviously don’t take my advice ever, and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Bet with your head, not over it.
TCU @ Texas
Line: Texas -3
Ok, first of all, everyone LOL one more time at Texas for losing to Kansas.
Now, Texas just lost to Kansas last week (LOL) and all reports are that Charlie Strong will be run out of town by the end of the weekend regardless of the outcome here. There’s no way you can take the Longhorns. They are un-bet-able.
Except the opponent is TCU, whose offense has been anemic in Big 12 play with the exception of the Oklahoma and Baylor games. Seems like TCU plays to the level of their competition. Hopefully they have an inflated opinion of Texas (like every preseason football poll).
$40 TCU +3 $40 Texas -3
Baylor vs Texas Tech
(AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)
Line: Baylor -5.5
So as bad as Texas losing to Kansas was last week (LOL), Texas Tech’s loss in Ames - by 56 points! - may have been even worse. Talk about your Jekyll and Hyde teams, I just cannot figure out when Tech’s offense is gonna show up and when it isn’t. There are more than grumblings about Coach Bro’s job security now; a big win over the rival Bears could really help smooth over the offseason for Tech.
On the flip side, the tire fire that is Baylor athletics is really roaring now, and it’s finally affecting the football team. They’ve lost four in a row and haven’t scored over 25 points in any of their last three games. They couldn’t even beat Texas, which is something that even Kansas, of all teams, was able to do (LOL).
I honestly don’t know what to do here, so I guess I go with the favorite?
$40 Baylor -5.5 $40 Texas Tech Moneyline
Kansas @ Kansas State
Line: Kansas State -27
So going by odds conversion, the odds of KU straight-up beating Texas last week was double their current odds of beating K-State this week. (The Moneyline was half this number.)
So everyone expects a huge KSU victory on Saturday, and I gotta admit, I agree. K-State isn’t what they were 15 years ago, but KU is arguably worse. Even though Jesse Ertz couldn’t hit the ocean with a football from a boat, and although the Jayhawks seem to be trending up, Bill Snyder has made it his mission to pummel Kansas at every opportunity. In his last 20 meetings with KU, Snyder is 19-1, and Mark Mangino isn’t roaming that sideline anymore. The White Wizard will be more than happy to snap the Jayhawks back to reality as Kansas comes off that high of beating Texas (LOL).
$40 Kansas State -27 $40 Kansas +27 and $20 KU Moneyline
West Virginia @ Iowa State
Line: West Virginia -7
You want a team trending up? How about Iowa State, who unloaded a can of whoopass on Texas Tech last week. It’s Senior Day for the ‘Clones, but will that matter? West Virginia is coming off an embarrassing beat-down by Oklahoma, and they’ll surely want to atone for that. I’ll take the 8-2 team with the good defense over the 3-7 team with the suddenly explosive offense. I mean, come on, unlike Kansas, Iowa State couldn’t even beat Texas this year (LOL).
$40 West Virginia -7 $20 Iowa State +7 and $20 on the OVER
DrCrushALot’s Picks of the Week
Each week, DrCrushALot will provide a maximum of five games that he likes.
Season record: 22-21
Last week: 3-0
Washington State @ Colorado -4.5, WIN
Kansas State -2 @ Baylor, WIN
Stanford -10.5 @ California, WIN
Doc promised to get over .500 a week too early, but he’s finally there. With just a couple of weeks left, let’s see if he can get a few games over that mark and finish the season on a high note.
I am an avowed Texas hater, and I was as happy as anyone that Kansas got the win last week. For this week, I honestly think KU is the right play, but of course I wouldn’t be surprised if Snyder finds a way to win by 40+.
Arkansas -8 @ Missouri. The “any two teams that get matched up on Thanksgiving weekend every year is now a rivalry” bowl. I got the Hogs.
Washington -6 @ Washington State. The Huskies still have a shot at the playoff and I actually expect an easy win for them here. Washington.
Baylor @ Texas Tech +5.5. Baylor is falling apart. There is already talk of turning down any bowl bids, the Bears are giving points, and are on the road (ok, neutral field)? Wrong team favored here. Texas Tech it is.