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RCT Bets the Big 12: Week 6

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Maths are hard.

NCAA Football: Baylor at Iowa State Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

Here we are again, another weekend in the books.

Speaking of books – I believe I’ve discovered a flaw in my mathematics.

Stay with me now. If I bet $50 each on two games, and win one and lose one, I’m in the hole, right? Because the house generally takes 10%. So in this two game example of a win and a loss, I’ve been representing it as, lose $50 and win $95. (Because you get your $50 back plus 90%, or $45.) But in reality, it’s lose $50 and win $45, which is a net loss of $5.

Right?

Which means I’m not up as much as I thought I was…

Right?

So, this probably isn’t as lucrative as I thought. I’ve gotta go back and re-figure each week now.

Recalculating...

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
+41 -42 -65 +10 +4

Ok.  Ugh that was humbling. Guess I’m not as smart as I thought I was. (Although with all the smart people that read this site, I can’t believe no one pointed it out to me…)

Maths are hard.

Weeks 2 and 3 were brutal, especially Week 3. Fortunately, there’s a lot of football left.

Let’s continue!

Starting bank: $500

New +/- for the year: $-56

Last week’s corrected bank: $444

Last week: 3-3

Overall picks: 18-17

Last Week

Kansas @ Texas Tech -28.5, WON $54

Kansas State @ West Virginia -3, LOST $40

Baylor -16.5 @ Iowa State, LOST $50

Texas +2.5 @ Oklahoma State and the Over, LOST $50 and WON $45

Oklahoma @ TCU, Over, WON $45

Week 5 Won/Loss: +$4

New bank: $448

Criminy. So much for my kickstarter idea. You guys probably oughta just stick with the mafia sounding dudes that are on sports radio stations early on Saturday mornings.

Now that this humiliating experience is behind me, let’s see if we can buckle down and actually make some actual (fake) money.

Standard reminder that this is purely for entertainment purposes only, and if it ever isn’t, never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Let’s roll.

TCU @ Kansas

Line: TCU -28.5

O/U: 63.5

Since TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012, they haven’t defeated the Jayhawks by more than 14 points in any of the four matchups. Let that marinate for a second.

All nice and juicy?

Good. Now forget it. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Kansas has no business staying within four touchdowns of TCU, even in their "down" year, and we all know it. The smart money here is not with the Jayhawks.

My bet: $50 TCU -28.5

Texas vs Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl)

Line: Oklahoma -10

O/U: 73.5

Throw out the records, right? Can I throw out Texas’ defense, too?

My bet: $50 Oklahoma -10 AND $50 on the OVER

Iowa State @ Oklahoma State

Line: Oklahoma State -17

O/U: 66.5

The Iowa State offense has come alive over the past three weeks, putting up 20 points with 355 yards on TCU, 44 points with 503 yards on San Jose State, and 42 points with 465 yards against Baylor. Oklahoma State also likes to score lots of points. The way Iowa State is playing, I’m not certain the Cowboys can cover, but the over seems like a good bet here.

My bet: $50 on the OVER

Texas Tech @ Kansas State

Line: Kansas State -7.5

O/U: 70

Um, am I reading that right? Texas Tech is getting points? Three times since 2012, K-State has held Tech under 27 points. If K-State is going to have a chance, they’re gonna need to do that again. But if there’s anyone struggling on offense even close to the magnitude KU is, it’s K-State.

My bet: $50 Texas Tech +7.5 AND $50 Texas Tech MONEYLINE +250

DrCrushALot’s Picks of the Week

Each week, DrCrushALot will provide a maximum of five games that he likes.

Season record: 9-9

Last week: 3-1

Stanford +3 @ Washington, LOSS

Miami -7 @ Georgia Tech, WIN

Northwestern +14 @ Iowa, WIN

Wisconsin +11 @ Michigan, WIN

Doc has now evened his record by virtue of having two winning weeks in a row. Can he make it three? Whaddya got for us this week, Doc?

This week:

I’ve been fighting picking KU plus the points, there’s lots of bad games and bad lines this week. I was hoping KU would go to +31. I think TCU will be in a funk Saturday morning. So since I’m not taking the Jayhawks, here are three picks for your consideration this week:

Western Kentucky -2.5 @ Louisiana Tech. Simply put, WKU > LTU.

Auburn -2.5 @ Mississippi State. With Gus fighting for his job against a struggling team, I’ll take the Tigers.

Michigan -26 @ Rutgers. I claimed this line as soon as I saw it on Monday. It’s already up to -27.5, and I expect this line to hit -32 or -33 by the weekend. Rutgers just got blanked by Ohio State and now two starting linemen are out for the year.