Another week of games, another week of heartbreak. This gambling thing isn’t for the faint of heart. If it wasn’t for a backdoor cover by Texas Tech, I’d be looking at a pretty big loss for the weekend. I’ve got to figure out a way to do better than .500!
I should’ve known better on Kansas, but come on, after Ohio and Memphis, you’re crazy if you take the Jayhawks. One of these days, TCU. One of these days....
Anyway, moving on!
Starting bank: $500
+/- for the year: -$56
TCU -28.5 @ Kansas, LOST $50
Texas vs Oklahoma -10 and the Over, LOST $50 and WON $45
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State, Over, WON $45
Texas Tech +7.5 @ Kansas State and the Texas Tech Moneyline (+250), WON $45 and LOST $50
Week 6 Won/Loss: -$15
Last week’s bank: $444
New bank: $429
Last week: 3-3
Overall picks: 21-20
Thank you Jesus for that backdoor cover by Texas Tech. Oh how I would have celebrated if Tech would have connected on that Hail Mary after they recovered the onside kick!
I’m going to start including the Moneylines for the underdog as well to spice things up a bit. (The Moneyline is the amount you would win on a $100 bet.) Standard reminder that this is purely for entertainment purposes only, and if it ever isn’t, never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma
Line: Oklahoma -10.5
This game opened with Oklahoma -14, meaning lots money came in early on K-State. I’m not sold on the Wildcats, but for some reason I feel like this could be a repeat of the Stanford game from back in Week 1. You know, KSU hangs around, but just can’t complete the upset. For what it’s worth, K-State has won the last two matchups in Norman – but KSU got pounded 55-0 in Manhattan last year, a game in which the Wildcats visibly gave up in the second quarter. I don’t think they’ll quit, but I don’t think they’ll hang, either.
My bet: $40 Oklahoma -10.5
West Virginia @ Texas Tech
Line: West Virginia -1
So this is the definition of a pick ‘em. Interestingly, these two teams have played mostly defensive games, with the highest total being 71 points back in 2014. I thought coming in that I would take the Over, but wow, 83 is a lot. I’m not sure West Virginia’s defense is as good as the stats say, as the one team they’ve played with a pulse put up 32 on them (BYU). And we KNOW Tech’s defense is bad. Am I trying to justify taking the over? Yes. Yes I am. The only problem is, we don’t know how badly Mahomes is hurt (and don’t lie to yourself, he is hurt). It might be a sucker’s bet, but I think I have to take it.
My bet: $40 on the OVER
Kansas @ Baylor
Line: Baylor -34
Unfortunately, one good game for Kansas against TCU doesn’t tell us much about the Jayhawks. I intimated last week that the Jayhawks are un-bet-able, and one game just doesn’t change that. Make it two in a row, with one on the road, and we’ll talk. Meanwhile, Baylor hasn’t shown the propensity to run the score up on people this year, so I think you almost have to look at the Over/Under on this game. Kansas has hit the under each of its previous four games this year, and not only has the defense been playing better, they should be getting two starters back from injury this week. And, if you think Kansas turned the corner last week, there’s lots of value in the Moneyline. Now, I’m not sold on that, but it might be worth a small flyer.
My bet: $40 on the UNDER, AND $10 Kansas Moneyline +8500
Iowa State @ Texas
Line: Texas -13.5
So if you’ll recall, last year ISU blanked Texas 24-zip in Ames. In 2014 and 2013, ISU probably should have beaten the Longhorns, but UT escaped each time. ISU has been putting up lots of points in the last several games as their offense has been improving since Week 3. Meanwhile, Texas is giving up points by the bucketful. ISU likely sees this as a winnable game, whereas Texas should know that outside of Kansas they might not be favored the rest of the year.
My bet: $30 Iowa State +13.5, AND $40 on the OVER, AND $20 Iowa State Moneyline +405
DrCrushALot’s Picks of the Week
Each week, DrCrushALot will provide a maximum of five games that he likes.
Season record: 11-10
Last week: 2-1
Western Kentucky -2.5 @ Louisiana Tech, LOSS
Auburn -2.5 @ Mississippi State, WIN
Michigan -26 @ Rutgers, WIN
I tried to warn “Doc” about the Bulldogs from Ruston, but he wouldn’t listen. He’s pretty hot right now, with a winning record for three weeks in a row. Let’s see if he can keep it going.
Stupid Western Kentucky.
Also, I knew I should have taken KU +29. I said TCU would be in a funk, but wow. I think this week the funk gets on KU, as I see a big regression coming after not getting the W. But, I’m not sure I see Baylor caring enough to actually run up the score like they used to. There’s no smart money in that matchup.
I’d like to pick against Rutgers again this week, but I don’t think Illinois is good enough to risk it. So without further ado, here are my picks for this week:
Georgia -14 @ Vanderbilt. Vandy sucks and Georgia still has a shot to win the SEC East despite the big loss to Ole Miss and the heartbreaker to Tennessee earlier this year.
USC -7 @ Arizona. USC is finally realizing they are faster than everyone else and although they lack depth due to scholarship restrictions they can still outscore people.
Tulsa @ Houston -20. This is my “it may double the point spread pick of the year.” Houston is pissed about losing to Navy and likely the College Football Playoff and will obliterate Tulsa.