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The Definitive Texas Tech Preview

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Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas comes into Lubbock kind of needing a win, which makes it fortunate that the Red Raiders are tonight's opponent. Kansas is an 86% favorite via KenPom, and it's fairly easy to see why as the Red Raiders rank last in the Big 12 in offense and defense. Texas Tech is being outscored by .251 points per possession, while the Jayhawks are outscoring opponents by .118 points per trip.

The Red Raiders are last in the Big 12 in eFG, turnover percentage, 2 pointers, eFG allowed, and 2 point% allowed.

One thing the Red Raiders are good at is getting to the line: Tech ranks second in the Big 12 in free throw rate. Interestingly, the Jayhawks rank 7th in free throw rate, so even though I hear they totally get all the calls, this will likely be another game in which the opponent gets an advantage at the line.

Instead, I will use this space to complain about Kansas not taking threes. I realize it's worked well for Bill Self over his career, and it's even worked fine this year as the Jayhawks are second in the league in scoring, averaging 1.08 points per possession in league play. Kansas is also third in the league in shooting twos, making 47.4 percent of their shots inside the arc. However, it's clear that they still aren't adjusting when the original plan isn't working. If the Jayhawks struggle at the rim, they still try to go to the rim, and still attempt wild shots that have basically no chance at success. Meanwhile, they are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, making 40.2 percent of their shots behind the arc. Even so, the Jayhawks rank 8th in the league in 3-point shooting. I'm not saying they need to take half their shots from three, but they need to take more threes if they want to get where they need to this March.

In any event, I'm 13-9-1 ATS, Kansas is favored by 12, and I'm picking the Red Raiders to cover but the Jayhawks to win 71-61. They better, anyway.