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A Look Back at the 'Way Too Early' Predictions for 2014

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At the end of December 2013, I took a look at the fall 2014 schedule for KU football and made some predictions. Let's see if anything needs to change.

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

 

Inspired by fetch's article last week and Jim Hammen's recent pep talk I'd thought I would revisit my article at the end of last season looking forward to 2014.  (Go ahead and take a look at it again if you like, I'll wait.)

In case you decided to not go back and read an article that is eight months old, here's the nuts and bolts version.   Last December, I went through every game on KU's 2014 schedule and assigned it "mikeville's % chance of winning."  I tried to think of the percentage change of winning as, "If these two teams played this game 100 times, who wins the most?"

The results went thusly:

vs SEMO: 99% - A KU win would be: Expected

I predicted: A KU blowout win.

@ Duke: 25% - A KU win would be: Unexpected

I predicted: A narrow KU loss.

vs CMU: 90% - A KU win would be: Expected

I predicted: A KU blowout win.

vs UT: 15% - A KU win would be: A major upset

I predicted: A comfortable Texas win.

@ WVU: 33% - A KU win would be: Surprising, a minor upset

I predicted: A narrow West Virginia win in a shootout.

vs OSU: 25% - A KU win would be: Surprising and an upset

I predicted: A comfortable Oklahoma State win.

@ TTU: 20% - A KU win would be: Surprising and an upset

I predicted: A Texas Tech blowout victory.

@ BAY: 10% - A KU win would be: A shocker and a major upset

I predicted: A Baylor blowout victory.

vs ISU: 60% - A KU win would be: Not necessarily expected, but not a surprise

I predicted: A comfortable KU win.

vs TCU: 40% - A KU win would be: Unexpected and a minor upset

I predicted: A narrow KU victory.

@ OU: 10% - A KU win would be: A shocker and a major upset

I predicted: An Oklahoma blowout win.

@ KSU: 20% - A KU win would be: Surprising and a major upset

I predicted: A narrow KU loss.

That made a final prediction of 4-8.  Eight months later, I honestly don't see much that I would change at this point.  (Coincidentally, during our last roundtable I also predicted four wins.) - I don't know if that's the kool-aid talking or what.  I suppose I could be talked into lowering the "percent chance of winning" by 5% or so for each of the Duke, OU, Baylor, and maybe even K-State matchups.  But, I just feel like we really are going to be better this fall through a combination of Reaganomics and Captain Heeney and the Avengers.

I would also like to point out that out of 267 votes:

40% (106 votes) thought TJ Millweard would win the starting QB job

24% (64 votes) thought Jake Heaps would win

36% (97 votes) thought Montell Cozart would win

So congrats to everyone who correctly picked Cozart.

Anyway, stay tuned for the ultimate Kool-Aid article coming out soon, where we'll walk more in-depth thru each game (with real fake stats and everything!) and I will break down just exactly how KU will go 14-0 (no offense to fetch, after all he was my inspiration) and win the inaugural College Football Playoff.  mikeville's percent chance of that actually happening?  0.0001%