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Reviewing our over/under predictions for the 2014 Kansas football season

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Back in August, I threw out some over/under measures for the 2014 Kansas football season. Let's take a look at how we did

Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Before the season started, I posted ten over/under marks for the Kansas football team in 2014. The season took some twists and turns, with season-ending injuries to two running backs, the firing of our head coach after four games, and the unexpected appointment of a new offensive coordinator at the midpoint of the season. We ended up adding an unexpected boost to the receiving corps in Nigel King, and Michael Cummings took over for Montell Cozart, but despite the hectic feel of the season, the results were about what I expected back in August.

Now that 2014 is in the rearview mirror, let's take a look at those questions and see how things panned out, and just how wrong I was about them

1) Over/under 21 points per game

My prediction: Over

Result: Under (17.8)

After back-to-back 30+ point performances against ISU and TCU, it looked like we may get there. Unfortunately, we all know what happened in the last two games, and we actually ended up scoring fewer points than we did in Weis' first season in Lawrence. I said in August that this would come down to how much of a difference Reagan would make. It turned out he really didn't make one at all.

2) Over/under 40 receptions for Nick Harwell

My prediction: Over

Result: Over (44)

I got this one, albeit just barely. After Cummings took over at quarterback, Harwell's numbers got a boost, finishing with 44 catches, 470 yards and a team-high 5 touchdowns. Not groundbreaking numbers, and not even close to what Harwell did at Miami, but the best season a Kansas wide receiver had put together since Daymond Patterson.

3) Over/under 55% completion rate for Montell Cozart

My prediction: Over

Result: Under (50%)

As it turned out, Cozart only made it about 4 1/2 games into the season, and finished completing an 50%. Michael Cummings was able to eclipse this mark, finishing at 56%, but that wasn't the question. If you're curious, all Kansas passers combined were not able to hit the goal either, finishing at 54.3%. It was an improvement over the hideous passing performances of the Weis era, but not quite what we needed to make up for the lack of a ground game.

4) Over/under 20 sacks for the defense

My prediction: Under

Result: Under (19)

Sooooo close. Michael Reynolds was one of the Big 12's top pass rushing specialists with 7, but he didn't get enough help and the defense finished one shy of the 20 mark, a small step down from 2013. I think part of the reason for this was moving Ben Goodman to a block-occupying role as a 3-4 defensive end. Goodman excelled in the BUCK role in 2013, but was moved this year to get Reynolds involved on an every-down basis. This did great things for Reynolds, but we could likely have improved our pass rush had we found a way to get Goodman and Reynolds both coming off the edge. Sadly, it seems we just didn't have the depth on the line to do this.

5) Over/under 10 made field goals by a single kicker

My prediction: Under

Result: Under (9)

Missed another goal by just one! Wyman was actually able to hold on to the placekicking role the entire season, but ended up hitting just 9 of 15 tries. Making 60% of our attempts, however, was a pretty big improvement. The offense just wasn't good enough to get us into range very often, and when we were, we usually needed touchdowns, not field goals.

6) Over/under .5 special teams touchdowns

My prediction: Under

Result: Over (1)

It may have been a meaningless punt return for a touchdown in our blowout loss to West Virginia, but we finally took a kick to the house this year. Congratulations to Nick Harwell for ending a four year long drought of special teams touchdowns.

7) Over/under 7.5 double digit losses

My prediction: Under

Result: Under (7)

I was kind of hoping we'd clear this bar by a little more, but beggars can't be choosers. We were beaten by double digits in 7 of our 12 games, which was somehow an improvement over 2013. Close losses to Oklahoma State and TCU made the difference in this one.

8) Over/under 115 tackles for Ben Heeney

My prediction: Under

Result: Over (127)

I don't mind being wrong about this one. Heeney's 127 tackles earned him first team All-Big 12 honors. Part of my reasoning for going with the under here was my assumption that the offense wouldn't keep the defense on the field for as many plays this year. That didn't exactly pan out.

9) Over/under 80th place ranking in F/+

My prediction: Over

Result: Over (107th)

The nation's 117th best offense helped hold us down in this measure, though the defense ranked 62nd. I'd like to note that this was actually worse than either of the all-Weis years, for anyone who still believes Bowen got more from his players than Weis did.

10) Over/under 3.5 wins

My prediction: Under

Result: Under (3)

I had this as a 3-9 team all summer, and things panned out just the way I thought they would. Wins in our two non-con home games, with a conference win over struggling Iowa State. Unfortunately, I think this is probably the same mark I'll use in 2015.