13 scholarships.
That's the limit. This past season, we had 12 scholarship players, including transfer Jeff Withey. Add in incoming recruits Thomas Robinson and Elijah Johnson, and that's 14. Or, one over the limit.
Obviously, that's a problem, although one that occurs countless times over the landscape of college basketball. However, from all indications, Xavier is going to be a Jayhawk. Hopefully, at least. If that does happen, as expected, that's 15 scholarships. Or, 2 over the limit.
Naturally, this is a problem that needs fixing. Not the worst problem in the world, having too much talent as opposed to not enough, but one that needs solving.There are a couple of potential, um, ways this could be resolved. I don't want to use the word 'solution', because it isn't ilke there is some strategy involved of this. This ain't the NBA: there are no cuts. However, as has been repeated over-and-over here at RCT over the last week-or-so, I highly doubt that Self would continue recruiting without an inkling of some changes forthcoming. As they say, these things have a way of working themselves out.
So, with that said, here are the potential events that could transpire to open up the available scholarships for Robinson, Johnson and, hopefully, Henry.
Note: I know that it is dangerous to count your chickens before they hatch, and I'm certainly not fully "expecting" a Xavier Henry commit. Although, it certainly appears as if he is Lawrence-bound, so all of these, um, ways to resolve the situation will be assuming that two scholarships need to be opened up. Two.
Cole and Sherron Go Pro
Really, no matter what their friend says on Twins blogs or what comes out mere hours after a heart-breaking loss, it means very little. Similar reports have come out through the years, with the player sitll ending up sticking in the Draft. No matter what, I would bet that both declare. Now, personally, I would prefer Cole and Sherron to return than any potential recruit to come in. But, it isn't like we have the choice between the two. If both declare for the Draft, as has been expected for awhile, and actually stick it out and get drafted, poof goes our scholarship issue. Still, not a desireable result.
We'll get into whether they should go pro or not later on in the month, but both have interesting pro/con things going on. Both do have some reasons to make the jump now, and it certainly is a possibility we never see either in a Kansas uniform again. I sure hope not, though.
Odds of Occurring: 10%
Other scenarios after the jump...
2 Transfers
I really don't want this to happen. I hate transfers, unless kids just get homesick and it's entirely their decision (Alex Galindo) or they are just too soft and unwilling to get down and play tough defense consistently (Micah Downs). Or, if they just refuse to play child support, or whatever (C.J. Giles). But, for the most part, I just don't like transfers. Two names are being mentioned far more often than any others as far as potential transfers go. Quintrell Thomas and Travis Releford.
Both, in terms of playing time, make some sense. Particularly Quintrell, who figures to be behind approximately 18 people on the depth chart next year, assuming Cole comes back. Honestly, just 5 (Cole, Withey, Robinson, Morris twins). But still, that's a helluva lot. As far as Releford goes, he probably will see a decrease in his PT next season. Most likely even the year after that, unless X is just a one-and-done. But, he figures to be a starter in 2011-2012, if he makes the necessary improvements and all. Redshirt next year, and he still has two years of being a starter to look forward to.
But, just like pro prospects, we'll get into specific transfer situations later. For now, regrettably, this seems to be the end result most are expecting. I hope it doesn't happen, because I think both (especially Releford) can be really good players in Lawrence. But if it's their decision, then it's their decision. Nothing you can do about it.
Odds of Occurring: 20%
Cole or Sherron Go Pro + 1 Transfer
Really, I think this is the most likely scenario. In terms of playing time, I wouldn't be surprised to see Quintrell transfer. Now, from everything I've read, he seems to be happy and cool with the situation and all of that. Still, I just have a feeling that he's gone. I hope not, but just a feeling. And, the more I look at the situation, I really think that at least one of Cole or Sherron will go pro. Again, I really hope not. And, I honestly couldn't tell you which one it will be. But either Sherron will take the money, now, or Cole will realize that he will almost certainly go Top 10 and jump a year too early.
I would like nothing more, though, than to be wrong on that.
Odds of Occurring: 30%
Cole or Sherron Go Pro/1 Transfer + Brady/Whoever Gives Up Scholarship
This is really two scenarios combined, but I found it silly to break it up. Because, if Brady, or whoever, really, would be willing to give up a scholarship, I'd feel infinitely better about the whole situation. And, as of January, he said he would be willing. So, fingers crossed. While it would suck for anyone else to leave, it's pretty much impossible to bring in Xavier and the other recruits without someone living. Well, I suppose two players could giveup schollies, but that'd just feel weird. And be practically impossible, particularly in this economy. So, no.
The real question is, which player would you be most willing to leave. Obviously, it feels silly to pick-and-choose who you wouldn't mind leaving. But, for me, it would have to be Quintrell. I love him, as I love everyone, but he really is way, way deep down on the bigs depth chart. And, he needs so much work, it's quite crazy.
Odds of Occuring: 40%
Concluding Thoughts
What do I think will happen? Well, really, it's pretty much impossible to tell. While FHOFNCOYDNCHCBS surely has leads as to potential openings, otherwise he wouldn't still be recruiting, I doubt even he knows exactly what should transpire. But, being my ever-optimistic self, I'll go on the record as Quintrell transfers and Brady gives up his schollie. Please, let this happen. Of all of the potential resolutions, that would be the most tolerable.