College Baseball 101: Going Pro

Moved from the diaries...

Fifth and last in a series of stories about College baseball and the KU Jayhawks.  Earlier entries:
KU Baseball Preview
College Baseball 101: The Season and the Tournaments
College Baseball 101: Quality of Play and Conferences
College Baseball 101: College Baseball vs. Pro Baseball
Ritch Price on College Baseball and the KU program

Major League Baseball's player control rules are probably among the most complex in all of professional sports.  How many casual baseball fans can accurately explain terms like the "Rule Five draft - minor league phase," and "Super-Two arbitration eligible"?    I've been slowly accumulating information on these rules for a few years now and I think I understand about two thirds of them fairly accurately.  Given that lukewarm statement of confidence, I now bravely wade into an explanation of the MLB amateur draft....

American vs. International players
The only amateur baseball players who are covered by the MLB draft are American citizens and foreign nationals playing baseball at American universities at which they have declare residence.  This is a key point.  Non-American players - probably about 80% of the global talent base - are essentially an uncontrolled group.  Any MLB team can sign a non-American amateur player at any point after their 16th birthday as long as they have not already signed a contract with another professional team.   Keep this in mind when you see any MLB club cutting back on international scouting.  Shutting down overseas scouting is the financial equivalent of an unemployed person saying they are not going to look for a job because it costs too much gas money to drive to interviews.  Overseas scouting can be likened to the "wild west."  It can often involve bribery, falsification and long hours but the potential rewards are enormous and frequent.  Twelve players on the Royals 40 man roster today are international players who were never drafted.

Returning to the American amateur talent base, a great deal more control is exerted over this group.  At about the same time College Baseball celebrates the high point of its season in Omaha the 30 major league clubs get together (at least on speaker phones) and conduct a two day draft that typically involves about 1,500 individual selections.

When is a player eligible for the draft?
There are times when an American is eligible for this draft, and times when he (and theoretically, she) is not.  Players can only be drafted:

1. Upon turning 18 years or after graduating from high school.  At this point a player can sign a professional contract and begin their long journey through the minor leagues.  If the player signs a contract at this point they are permanently banned from playing baseball in college.  Young draftees use the leverage of exercising their option to play baseball in college to gain larger signing bonuses.  If a drafted player enrolls in a college with the intention of playing baseball at that institution the drafting team looses its rights to the player and he can be redrafted by another team the next time he is eligible. Current KU Jayhawk Erik Morrison was drafted and offered a nice bonus out of highschool but instead he decided to come to KU. Given his performance last year I think this decision will end up not only rewarding him with an education and several years of enjoying life in Lawrence, but probably will cause his next signing bonus offer to be an even more attractive one.
2. If a player enrolls in an NCAA college and plays baseball they cannot be redrafted until they have completed their junior year or until they reach 21 years of age.  Teams which draft a player who has played three years must sign them to a contract before he either enrolls in or attends in fall classes. (I'm not sure which one of these actions invalidates his draft.)  Once a drafted player returns for his senior year the drafting team looses rights to that player and he can be redrafted by a new organization the following year.  This quirk to the MLB draft gives junior players a great deal of leverage in negotiations.  It forces the drafting team to make a pretty attractive offer to the player.  After all, he can always return to school, play baseball for another year and finish his degree.  Not a bad fall back option.
3. Finally, players can be drafted each year after their senior year.  The drafting organization controls rights to the player for a year.  If he does not sign a contract with the club he re-enters the draft the following year.  Occasionally players drafted by MLB clubs who have exhausted their college eligibility play for independent league clubs (for example, the Northern League) while negotiating a contract.  While the players are probably only earning a few hundred dollars a week playing for the Long Island Ducks, they are still given an opportunity to showcase their talent and can continue to build leverage in negotiations.  Some big names have followed this route recently, Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew and last year's #1 draft choice, Luke Hochevar.  
4. The only exception to this process is with those who play baseball at two year colleges.  These players can be drafted anew each year until they either sign a professional contract or enroll in an NCAA (4-year) school.  If they enroll in an NCAA school, they can be drafted again after their junior year, and again finally after their senior year.  Thus theoretically a player can be drafted five times over a five year period if he goes High School - Juco - NCAA. If he goes straight into the NCAA from high school he can be drafted three times in five years.

Out of this group of roughly 175 minor leaguers in an organization, probably only 15 to 20 are considered true prospects.  A prospect is a player who has been identified as someone capable of enjoying a major league career, someone who might go beyond the "replacement level" ceiling.

Sidebar about that loaded word, "prospect." The theory behind "replacement level is that there always exists a large pool of minor league players who can play in the major leagues but who will never be better than roster fillers.  Sometimes these players are called AAAA players to signify they are better than most AAA players, but will never be good enough to make an impact in the bigs.  Teams are not trying to develop a large pool of "replacement level" players, there are always hundreds of these guys who can be obtained fairly inexpensively on waivers or via minor league free agency.  Think Jeff Keppinger or Dee Brown here.  The goal is to develop players who will be good MLB players, "prospects."  Thus most teams would gladly allow several "replacement level" players to leave before they would part with one of their "prospects."  Think Alex Gordon or Billy Butler here.  Even a prospect who only has about a one in ten chance of becoming truly good will normally be more valued than a very solid and seasoned 28 year old AAA player who seems to have peeked at "replacement level."  Players fight hard to gain the "prospect" title, but it seems to me that very few players who are not seen in this light in their first year of professional ball ever improve their stock and gain the status.  After the draft it is more a thing to be lost than to be won.  That is why it is so uncommon to see an unheralded minor leaguer suddenly pull it together and get himself on the organization's fast track.  But I digress...

Even though each organization only has a relatively small number of prospects, the entire minor league system must be staffed to a reasonable level of skill and competence to give these golden boys the competitive structure they need to develop their skills.   If you go see a low-A minor league team next year, you probably will see 50 young men working their asses off in pursuit of the dream, but in the eyes of a MLB General Manager, the whole show is only being put on for the benefit for one or two players on each team who have been ordained "prospects."

If you want to know who the prospects are in each MLB organization a good place to visit is John Sickel's web site "Minor League Baseball."  Here is the 2007 pre-season list for the Kansas City Royals:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/11/14/14436/066

If a player is older than 22 and is not receiving at least a C+ rating, he probably is not attracting much attention from the parent club.  The Royals system is not so bad this year but they still only have 18 players who can legitimately be called prospects by this system.  The other 160 or so players in the Royals minor league system are there as long-shots and roster fillers needed to provide the competitive environment used to develop the prospects.

Of the roughly 1,500 amateurs drafted each year only about 200 will earn a signing bonus larger than a few thousand dollars.   The first 20 or so players taken will receive a million or more dollars, the next hundred will be offered something in the six figures.  Most players drafted after the first few rounds will be offered something like $5,000 and a ticket to some small town.  Signing bonuses are a huge issue for college players because after the initial influx of money they are likely to earn about a thousand dollars a month for the next three or four years.  Even players who get within sniffing distance of the show, players at AA and AAA, normally earn something in the $30K to $60K range.  Not a bad living, but in the Chevy, not Acura, range.  If a drafted player manages his signing bonus money well he can use it to live more comfortably during his hungry years in the low minors.  Players without this financial cushion have to scramble to find off-season jobs from October to February. "And now pitching for your hometown Burlington Bee's, the night stock clerk at the local Hy-Vee." Former big leauge Third baseman Chris Sabo used to work a fast food job in Sarasota during the off season so he could be near the Reds spring training site and work shifts up to the day he had to report to camp.

College vs. Minor League Life
Despite the many romantic images our society puts forth about minor league baseball, I understand the actual experience is far from idyllic.  About 10 or 20 players drafted each year are considered very well developed and are pushed into the high minors right away, maybe even as high as the AA level such as Alex Gordon was last year.  The remaining 1,000 or so other players face a long road if they are going to live the dream.  Those who live up to expectations will likely spend half a year in rookie level ball, another season in low A, a third in high A, another in AA, and then they will go into a holding pattern at AAA waiting for the shot.  A lucky player, one who beats the odds, will have to put up with 2-3 years of  poverty and eight hour bus rides four times a week, followed by another 2 years of "getting by."  Nine out of ten will not be so lucky and wash out in the first couple of years.  Sometimes these players are cut, but normally they can read the writing on the wall and make an exit on their own terms.

College players are normally expected to progress through the low levels more quickly, but just the same all but the highest draft choices must spend at least a few years buried deep in the organization.  Most minor league facilities are less comfortable and modern than those found at major college programs.  Instead of pursuing a life of stimulating classes, quality time with friends, and sleeping in decent hotels while on the road, life after college is a real step down for most baseball players.  Even in the group of players who are "pretty good," those who have some hope of time in the major leagues, "C" prospects, it is not uncommon at all to see many dropping off after one of two years of minor league life.  Life as a teacher or office worker starts to look pretty good to a lot of young players after going through the grind for a year or two.

Knowing what they have to look forward to in the minor leagues helps explain why so many young men choose to play baseball in college in the first place, and also why so many stay in college after being drafted and tempted by what might look to them at the time like a substantial pile of money.  College gives players the opportunity to pursue the game seriously, but also to enjoy life a bit more and earn a degree that in the long run will probably be more beneficial to them then the baseball skills they work so hard to develop.  A very talented baseball player who spends four years at KU can potentially earn a much larger signing bonus when he does turn pro while at the same time cutting down his time in the minors by one or two years.  And even if baseball doesn't end up being the vehicle driving his life forward in later years, a college player now has a degree on his wall.

Scouts love college baseball players as they are much easier to project.  Their years playing in the NCAA can be seen as a replacement for the low levels of the minor leagues.  A player who has already succeeded at KU can be seen as a player who has already proven he can overcome the opening hurdles between the sandlot and the major leagues.  Increasingly the top rounds of the draft are dominated by college players.  They are safer bets, will be ready to contribute at the major leagues more quickly, and presumably are more mature and serious minded about their craft.  

tick tick tick
The only downside to this equation is that a college player enters the minor league system three or four years later than does a high school player, so he must progress up the ladder more quickly or loose his shot at "prospect" status.  The rule of thumb is that a baseball player who will succeed should be established in the majors by the time he is 26 years old, regardless as to his age at the time he was drafted.  A "prospect" should have his "cup of coffee" no later than at age 24, and should be a fixture on the club within the next two years.   The peak performance years for baseball players start around 28 and extend into thier early thirties when their physical abilities start to decline. This biological fact means that slow development cuts down on the amount of time a player will be able to contribute at the major leauge level during these peak years. While there certainly are many players in their late 20's and early 30's still playing minor leauge baseball, I would be surprised to find anyone older than 26 on a "prospect" list.  College players understand this, and that is why any bump in the road on their journey up the system which occurs below the AA level is considered potentially career ending.  "Prospects" are not given the opportunity to repeat levels.  When players talk about their time in the minors they often describe a stressful and cut-throat atmosphere in the clubhouses.  If a prospect stumbles through a bad spell, if he fails to show that he can dominate a league before the season comes to an end, in most cases the major league team starts to look past him for his replacement.  Of the six Jayhawks drafted last year, most will probably break camp with low-A teams.  Unless they can prove by the end of the year that they have the ability to perform at the high-A level they will probably find themselves being nudged out of organization's future plans.  A 23-year old in Burlington is the "old man" on the team.  And, unless you are lucky enough to hook up with someone like Susan Sarandan, being the old man on the team is not a lot of fun.

This is the last (and longest) chapter of the Baseball 101 series.  Starting next week I will begin posting a series of four season preview articles about the 2007 KU team.  Those articles will be more focused on the Jayhawks rather than college baseball in general.

Don't Forget! There are 12 days before Opening Day, February 1st at Hawaii-Hilo. The first home game for the mighty Jayhawks is February 9th vs. South Dakota State @3PM, Hoglund Park!