Rock Chalk Talk :: Baseball

I'll will write up a recap as soon as time permits. I am afraid I am in a pretty busy phase until Tuesday morning.

The Kansas-Missouri Saturday night game has been rained out. A double header will be played Sunday starting at noon.

One thing is that you don't have to say one motivational thing in this series. If you don't get fired up to play these guys, there's something wrong with you." - Coach Price on the Kansas-Missouri baseball series.

Kansas came up just short last night vs. Aaron Crow and the Tigers. Robby Price made a rare error and KU stranded 12 baserunners allowing Missouri to escape Hoglund with a 5-3 victory. Photo courtesy of the LJ World.

Going into last night's game I knew Kansas had to play a very solid game, and find a little luck, if they were going to beat Aaron Crow and the Tigers. Both these things happened. Nick Czyz delivered a good start, the Hawks managed to produce 17 baserunners and the bullpen pitched well. In the end it came down to one clutch hit, or, more accurately, the lack of that one last clutch hit. Trailing 5-3 Kansas loaded the bases in the ninth before going down swinging.

Aaron Crow came as advertised. The Missouri ace struck out 11 Jayhawks in seven innings without surrendering an earned run. Kansas made some luck in the bottom of the third by scoring two unearned runs off an Andrew Thigpen throwing error. Nick Czyz pitched well enough to keep the team in the game, going five innings while giving up four runs (three earned). The Hawks forced Crow to throw a lot of pitches, drawing five walks and six hits. After the game Coach Price said, "We just tried to run his pitch count up and see if we could get him out of the game." After seven innings and 117 pitches the Tigers turned a 5-2 lead over to the bullpen.

Kansas scored quickly in the bottom of the eighth to cut the led to two runs. The ninth inning was edge-of-your-seat baseball. After recording two quick outs Missouri reliever Ryan Allen loaded the bases on a John Allman double and back to back walks to Buck Afenir and Ryne Price. Missouri wanted this win badly. In a move that surprised just about everyone at Hoglund the Tigers brought in Kyle Gibson, their Saturday starter, and asked him to secure the final out. Erik Morrison worked a 3-1 count before Gibson came back to strike him out swinging and finally quiet the remaining crowd.

It was a great night of baseball. A good crowd of about 1,400 showed up, including at least a couple hundred Missouri supporters. I came into last night's game knowing that the odds were against KU getting a win on Crow Night. The team kept me there all 27 outs and almost stole a win. I am optimistic about the next two games. Hopefully the weather will cooperate and the game today will go off without delay. This series still is very much Kansas' to win. First pitch Saturday scheduled for 6PM, Sunday 1PM.

Other Big-12 Scores
Texas A&M 6 at Nebraska 3 (16 Innings! Wow!)
Texas Tech 2 at Oklahoma State 3
Kansas State 6 at Oklahoma 4 (KU & KSU tied for 7th now)

vs.

Kansas Jayhawks (29-22, 8-13) vs. Missouri (32-16, 11-10)

Kansas host Missouri for a three game series this weekend. There is absolutely no need to hype this series. Anytime Missouri and Kansas play fans and players know what to expect.

Friday 6PM: Nick Czyz (2-5, 6.09 ERA) vs. Aaron Crow (10-0, 3.08 ERA)
Saturday 6PM: Andres Esquibel (3-4, 5.37) vs. Kyle Gibson (7-1, 3.84)
Sunday 1PM: T.J. Walz (4-0, 4.34) vs. Rick Zagone (1-3, 5.40)
Media: KLWN AM-1320 will broadcast all three games live. For those outside the Lawrence area steaming audio and video will be available through this site. The Friday night game will be broadcast live on KUJH-TV (Sunflower 31)

Complete Missouri stats are located here. Jayhawk stats here.
Missouri's SB Nation blog, Rock'M Nation will be covering the series as well.

Scouting Missouri
I will leave scouting reports on individual players to Aman - the Tigers have a few very impressive prospects. If you like to catch future pros while they are still playing at the college level definitely make time for the Friday and Saturday night games. Aaron Crow, the Tigers Friday night pitcher, will go very early this June. The Royals may take him with the #3 overall pick.

The Missouri Tigers are a good baseball team, but not a great team. Their parts are greater then their whole. They have several stars but overall their roster is more shallow than that of Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas, Baylor and Nebraska. I believe this is the reason the Tigers were upset in mid-week games by low ranked teams several times this season - Minnesota, Western Illinois and Southern Illinois. When Crow or Gibson are on the mound, they can beat anyone in the nation. The other two or three games they play that week, the Tigers are a pretty average NCAA team. In Big-12 series the Tigers record on Fridays is 6-1, on Saturdays 4-3, on Sunday they fall to 1-6. When Crow or Gibson pitch the Tigers have a Runs Against average of 3.8, when anyone else is pitching the average grows to 6.3. It is an unbalanced team. Most days they have only one path to victory, a strong start by one of their stud pitchers.

Offensively Missouri and KU match up pretty evenly. MU is averaging 7.3 runs scored per contest, although these numbers are inflated due to their 31-12 victory over Texas in a game played in 40mph wind gusts. If that game is factored out I think we get a more realistic view of what the Tigers produce on a given night, 6.8 runs, just below Kansas' 7.0 average. The Tigers have two terrific bats in their line-up, Aaron Senne and Jacob Priday. These two players have accounted for more than half the team's homeruns (26 of 44). Overall Missouri is a bit more patient than Kansas at the plate. They rely on high batting average and the power of Senne and Priday. KU is more physical and aggressive top to bottom. With the games being played at Hoglund KU has an edge here. The two teams matchup evenly in terms of defense and baserunning as well.

Wrapping it up - The Sunday match up favors KU, so the key for the Hawks will be scratching out a win on either Friday or Saturday. If KU can find a way to get to Crow and/or Gibson and score a few runs, if Czyz and/or Esquibel provide effective starts, the Hawks have an excellent chance of winning this series. If Friday's game goes badly for the Hawks they have to put it out of their mind quickly and come back with fire for the next two games. Few teams have had any success against Crow, he is a special pitcher but he can only factor into one of the three games this weekend. Kansas probably needs to win two of their remaining six conference games to be assured of an invite to the Big-12 tournament. Here is hoping they get both of them this weekend.

I have to start with the obvious
JR Aaron Crow 6'3, 195 RHP -Crow is one of the top players in the country and i believe him to be the best pitcher in the country (Brian Matusz of San Diego gets a close 2nd). Crow has 2 very strong pitches he relies on. His fastball and his slider. His fastball is in the lower to mid 90's with good late movement. He has great command of it and throws it on both sides of the plate and will use it up in the zone. His control is extremely good. Having control and command of a mid 90's moving fastball is a sick thing to have as a pitcher. He couldn't do it all with just a fastball however. His second pitch is a slider in the mid 80's. This is usually his strikeout pitch i would assume. He gets ahead of hitters with his fastball and then flashes the slider to finish them off. He also has a change up but at this point it is just an average pitch and he doesn't use it a whole lot. He has a 3.08 ERA with 92 K's in 76 innings. He has only walked 24 and has given up 66 hits. I will be watching him very close tonight. I want to see his 3/4 arm delivery and how smooth he looks with it. I will be anxious to seethe movement on his fastball and to see how much his slider breaks. Crow is a feisty competitor as well so i will be anxious to see him talk smack and show his emotions out there. He is from right up the street in Topeka so he should really be out to beat the Jayhawks today. I hope we can scratch some runs across.
SO Kyle Gibson 6'6, 195 RHP -I actually like Gibson about as much if not more than I like Crow. Gibson is a tall kid with very good stuff. He has 3 very good pitches. His fastball is in the low 90's and upper 80's and has good movement. His slider isn't decent and comes in at the mid 80's. He has a good combination of skills and has a high ceiling to go with his youth. He has a 3.84 ERA in 70.1 innings with 74 K's, 18 walks and 72 hits. He was drafted in the 34th in 06 by the Phillies and i would expect him to be a top 5-10 draft pick this time next year. He will be playing on the USA team this summer. I will be watching his delivery very close and I'm anxious to see what his 3 pitches look like. He pitches tomorrows game at 6pm.
SO Aaron Senne 6'2, 201 OF - Senne was drafted in the 13th rd. in 06 by Minnesota. That is a pretty high pick coming out of HS and choosing college. Senne has very nice numbers. He is batting .361 with 11 HR and 55 RBI. He has 12 Doubles, 24 K's and 32 walks. Senne appears to be a very good hitter with plenty of pop in his bat. He has good strike zone judgment as well. He will also play on the USA team this summer. He is an exciting player and i will be watching him tonight to see if he can be a first round pick after next season.
SR Jacob Priday 6'1, 215 OF -Priday has some very good power but also hits very well for average. He is batting .348 with 15 HR, 55 RBI, 14 Doubles, 37 K's and 21 Walks. Priday is a great hitter and will be tough to keep under control this weekend. I will be anxious to see his power and to gauge where his draft slot will be next month.
SO Trevor Coleman 6'1, 214 C - Coleman is a young catcher with some very good upside. He was drafted in the 38th round in 06 by the Reds and last year he was the Big 12 Freshman of the year. Being a catcher with a good bat is always a rare thing. Coleman is hitting .284 with 2 HR and 25 RBI, 5 Doubles, 23 K's and 22 Walks. I will be watching his defense behind the plate and also to see if he has any pop in his bat at all. If he can put together a good offensive campaign next year, he could move up the draft charts very quickly.
FR Nick Tepesch 6'5, 224 RHP -Tepesch was drafted in the 28th round in 07 by Boston. He is a very big kid. He has a 5.24 ERA in 22.1 innings with 13 K's and 8 Walks and has given up 24 hits. Hittable at this stage of his young career but i will be looking to see what upside he may have (if we get to see him at all).
JR Ryan Lollis 6'1, 190 OF - Lollis was drafted in the 20th round in 05 by Pittsburgh. He is a solid hitter for average with gap power and some decent speed. He is batting .326 with 1 HR, 34 RBI, 15 Doubles, 19 K's and 29 Walks. He is an exciting young prospect that may be drafted in the middle rounds next month.

A few other guys i will be watching for:
FR Brad Buehler 6'1, 204 RHP - drafted in the 43rd last year by Tampa Bay
FR Tyler Clark 6'2, 196 RHP - Clark is a strikeout pitcher drafted in the 46th last year by the Cubs
FR Andrew Thigpen 5'11, 190 SS - Thigpen is having a great freshman year batting .361 in 72 at bats
SO Greg Folgia 5'11, 195 INF - Folgia is batting .309 with some decent gap power (15 doubles) and a nice strikeout/walk ratio (34/38)

Paul Smyth was named to the College Baseball Foundation's National All-Star team for his performance last week vs. Missouri and Oklahoma. Smyth pitched in all four games, earning one win and three saves. The Junior closer is coming on strong in the big games. He now has 10 saves on the year and seems to have shaken the control problems that crept into his game in March. Smyth is the second Jayhawk honored by the CBF this year. T.J. Walz was also named to a team in April.

Justin Ellrich was named to the Academic All-District 7 First Team by ESPN. Ellrich carries a 3.90 GPA into his last semester at KU, and he didn't rack up that GPA by padding his schedule with easy classes. He is a Chemical Engineering major. Ellrich is also have a good year at the plate, hitting .313 with power.

In other college baseball news, Nebraska is hosting Texas A&M this weekend for a monumental Big-12 series. These are the top two teams in the conference and the series is attracting a lot of national attention. Kendall Rogers of Rivals.com made the trip to Lincoln to watch the series and will be providing analysis throughout the weekend. The Big-12 regular season championship will be decided this weekend by two teams which each have a shot at being awarded super-regional host status by the NCAA committee in a few weeks.

For those who follow NAIA baseball, their national championship tournament is already underway. Kansas is well represented. Bethany knocked off top seed St. Mary to earn the Kansas Collegiate Athletic Conference auto-bid. Bethany joins Kansas Wesleyan and Park University to make up half the team competing for the Region IV crown. This regional tournament is being played at Hutchinson on Kansas Wesleyan's campus. The winner of this region will go on to the NAIA National Championship series played in Lewiston, Idaho May 23-30. To follow the local teams in the tournament here is a link to the NAIA tournament site.

*** Disappointing news. The game was cancelled due to the likelihood of thunderstorms tonight.***

Kansas host Oral Roberts tonight at 6PM. Just as in basketball, the Golden Eagles are a regional power in college baseball. ORU enters the game with a 34-12 record and are ranked #46 in the latest RPI. ORU has won four of the six meetings between the schools during the Ritch Price era, including the last three. The Hawks will need to bring their best game to win tonight. While KU will be playing to defend their house and to keep their momentum, the Golden Eagles are trying to lock up a post-season bid. Should they stumble in the Summit Conference tournament right now the Golden Eagles would not be assured of receiving an at-large invite to the field of 64.

Shaeffer Hall (4-2, 5.27 ERA) will get the call for KU. Oral Roberts has not yet announced a starter. The KU news release anticipates Kelly Minissale (1-3, 6.67 ERA). I would not be at all surprised if the Eagles go with either Mark Serrano (2-1, 4.46 ERA) or Jerry Sullivan (6-2, 4.06 ERA) instead. Minissale started and lost a game on Sunday vs. South Dakota State. He only lasted one inning. As ORU hosts a fairly weak Oakland club this weekend I expect they will be willing to shuffle their weekend rotation to improve their chances tonight.

Scouting Oral Roberts: Full ORU stats can be found here. It is a little hard to judge ORU's performance based on statistics as they frequently match up with low ranking conference opponents. They have plenty of offense, averaging over 8.5 runs per game. Their pitching and defense fall more into the average category (5.4 runs given up per game). ORU plays four games this weekend so they will be reluctant to use starters for multiple innings in relief tonight. If KU can chase their starter early they will have a good chance to work over a somewhat thin Golden Eagle bullpen. Oral Roberts is not a strong defensive team (.963 team fielding percentage) and they do not run very often (30/39 on stolen bases). From their stat sheet they look like a team that plays for the big inning.

The game will be broadcast on KLWN AM-1320. For those outside the Lawrence area just click here to access the streaming audio.

The weather is a bit iffy tonight. I think there is about a 50-50 chance this game will be played without interruption. If it rains this afternoon check in at KUathletics.com for a possible delay or cancellation.

I really hope the weather cooperates tonight. Not only because this looks to be a good baseball game but also because Hoglund will honor one of the better movies of the last thirty years, Office Space. Fans will be given a piece of "flair" as they arrive and there will be movie related events between innings. I understand one of these will be a printer smash. You have to figure the crowd will be "celebrating Michael Bolton's whole catalog" between innings as well. So set your TPS Reports aside for a few hours and get down to Hoglund tonight. Just sit there, watch the game, and do nothing. Remember Peter's message to us all:

"It's not just about me and my dream of doing nothing. It's about all of us. I don't know what happened to me at that hypnotherapist and, I don't know, maybe it was just shock and it's wearing off now, but when I saw that fat man keel over and die - Michael, we don't have a lot of time on this earth! We weren't meant to spend it this way. Human beings were not meant to sit in little cubicles staring at computer screens all day, filling out useless forms and listening to eight different bosses drone on about about mission statements." So, go to the ball game.

Texas A&M makes a big move and now leads the conference both in winning percentage and in RPI ranking. The Aggies moved from 22 all the way down to 6! A&M also became the first NCAA team to read the magic number of 40 wins, generally considered to be a mark of a great season. Nebraska comes in right behind A&M at #7. The Huskers moved up eight slots. Oklahoma State falls from #6 to #13, and into third place in the conference rankings. The Cowboys only lost one game during the last two weeks but it was against Utah Valley State (#243). Just playing teams ranked as low at UVS hurts a team's RPI, loosing to them comes with an even harsher penalty.

Right now A&M and Nebraska look like they might be awarded Regional Host status by the NCAA. The UVS loss by Oklahoma State might take the Cowboys out of the running or one of these rare honors. The NCAA names eight Regional Hosts each year - giving these teams the honor and advantage of playing at home for the first two rounds of the 64 team tournament. The eight teams that emerge from these sites travel to Omaha to compete in the College World Series.

Texas seems to have found some stability these last two weeks, winning back to back conference series. The last time I updated this chart the Longhorns looked to be slipping into "bubble" status. Now they look pretty well like a lock for an at-large invite. Baylor holds steady. The Bears are on the bubble and will need a strong finish. Missouri continues to slide. Even though the Tigers are ranked below Baylor I think they are in a better position to win a tournament invite due to their better conference record and high profile pitching staff. Boyd's World agrees with this assesment. According to Boyd's latest "RPI needs" list Missouri can go 5-3 in thier last eight games and still make the cut. Baylor must win five of their remaining six for the same result.

Kansas State makes a very strong move, moving up fifteen notches to #56. The Wildcats have no chance at earning an at-large, but the way they have been playing they will have to be taken seriously in the post-season Big-12 championship tournament in Oklahoma City. Kansas makes the most impressive move in the rankings, jumping 29 spots up to #93. This is the first time KU has broke into the top-100 all season. Kansas has won four consecutive games vs. Big-12 opponents.

Texas Tech and Oklahoma hold steady. The Red Raiders will need to play their best baseball of the season just to fight their way back into the top-8 of the conference and be given an opportunity to play in the Big-12 tournament.

Tracking KU's out of conference opponents - Wins over LeMoyne (151), Dartmouth (155), Xavier (166), Iowa (180), Northwestern (205), CCSU (231), UMBC (238), two over Missouri State (68) and Chicago State (291) each, plus three over NDSU (254). Loses to Vanderbilt (25), Arkansas (26), Wichita State (27), Illinois (110) and Ohio State (129). Lost a series 3-2 at Hawaii-Hilo (249).

As the 2008 season winds to a close we are increasingly aware that in the next few weeks KU baseball fans will need to say goodbye to a special group of players. Seniors Erik Morrison, John Allman and Ryne Price may leave the team at the end of this season but their names will be written all over the school's record books. Ryne Price (35) and Erik Morrison (30) already hold the top two spots on the Kansas career homerun list. Along with John Allman they are also moving up the career RBI list.

Ryne Price, Morrison and Allman are all great NCAA baseball players. No one can look forward to replacing them. One of the reasons I am so happy about the team's recent surge is because I know with these players on the roster KU has the talent and experience in place right now to be a dangerous team. I'd love to see this group leave as did the class of 2006, on a high note.

Paul Smyth is not a senior, but he is draft eligible and I expect he will receive an attractive offer from a major league club this June. Smyth is already second on the KU all-time appearances list for pitchers with 98. He trails only Don Czyz who finished his amazing career with 128. Smyth is also second on the career saves list with 18 - Czyz complied 31 saves while at KU. We all hope Paul stays with the team, but of course will wish him well should he choose to make the leap to the next level.

[Update] The day after this story was posted John Allman was named Big-12 player of the week. Big congratulations go out to John. He is the first Jayhawk to win the honor since Gus Milner in 2006.

Kansas finished their weekend sweep of Oklahoma this afternoon with a 9-4 victory. T.J. Walz went 6.2 innings to earn his fourth victory of the year. The Hawks hit often and with power, collecting 13 hits and two more homeruns. The 39 runs scored by KU set a new team record for runs in a Big-12 series. Robby Price stayed hot at the plate, going 3-5. The homeruns came from the usual sources, Buck Afenir (8) and Ryne Price (11). Paul Smyth pitched the final 1.2 innings for his 10th save. Smyth finished every game this series, earning a victory and two saves.

This sweep enormously improves KU's post season hopes. On Friday the Jayhawks were tied for last place in the conference with idle Texas Tech. In three days they climbed over Kansas State and Oklahoma and now sit in seventh place. The top eight teams qualify for the Big-12 conference tournament in Oklahoma City. With four of their six remaining games at home (three vs. Missouri next weekend and then one vs. Kansas State) the Jayhawks can start thinking more about toppling Baylor and improving their seed then just making the cut. Kansas is 6-3 at home this year in Big-12 competition. Next weekend's series with Missouri at Hoglund looks bigger every day.

All year long KU baseball fans have known this team is stocked with talent and experience. It is so good to see them coming on strong here at the end. The 2008 Hawks play with enthusiasm and aggression. It is increasingly clear that they simply do not know quit.

The Kansas offense stayed in high gear Saturday as the Jayhawks defeated Oklahoma in another shoot-out, 13-10. While Friday's 17-15 triumph could largely be explained by the cold and windy conditions, yesterday afternoon was picture perfect - sunny and warm, with a moderate breeze from which only a few fly balls took advantage. Once more Oklahoma nearly matched the KU offensive explosion, keeping the game interesting through the final out. Kansas will go for the sweep this afternoon at 1PM. Should the Jayhawks win today they will have moved from last place to 7th in the conference, separating themselves by at least a game from Oklahoma, Kansas State and Texas Tech.

The game started off in fairly typical fashion. Andres Esquibel gave up two runs in the first four innings and looked to be gaining strength as the game wore on. In the bottom of the fourth the Hawks blew the contest wide open by exploding for eight runs. The crowd was quickly reminded that even a 10-2 lead might not be enough this weekend as Oklahoma responded with five of their own runs in the top of the fifth. Esquibel gave up six consecutive hits to start the inning before being relieved by Shaeffer Hall. Hall stayed in the game for three innings, allowing two more runs. Nick Faunce gave KU the insurance runs the crowd wanted in the bottom of the eighth when he hit a two-run homer to stake the Jayhawks to a 13-9 lead. For the second consecutive night Paul Smyth came on to pitch the final two innings and nail down a victory.

Yesterday as I stepped into the parking lot on my way to the game I was immediately hit with such a strong gust of wind that I had trouble putting my coat on. I could feel the wind pushing my body around as I walked. I thought, "This is going to be one freaky baseball game."

In retrospect it is surprising that Nick Czyz kept the Sooners under control for as long as he did. Czyz took a 2-0 lead into the 4th inning. He lost the strike zone and surrendered his first home run of the season, a grand slam, before the inning was over. Once the flood gates were open no pitcher could reseal them last night. Oklahoma and KU traded offensive outburst throughout the last five innings. Even when Kansas fell behind 12-7 I had more than a little hope that 12 runs would not be enough for a win.

Tailing 15-11 in the bottom of the eighth inning Kansas rallied for six runs to take a 17-15 lead. Paul Smyth, who had allowed three runs to score in the top of the inning (two inherited and one of his own) had to protect a two run lead in the top of the ninth to seal the comeback. This was no simple task. With a runner on and two outs Oklahoma clean-up hitter Aaron Baker smacked a deep shot to center. "I thought it was gone," said Price in a post game interview. "He hit it right on the button. That ball was gone all night." Nick Faunce, with his back to the centerfield fence, caught the ball.

KU improves to 6-13 in the conference and is now tied with Kansas State for 8th place. K-State and Missouri hooked up in another wild offensive game in Columbia last night which the Tigers won 13-10. Oklahoma is still one half game ahead of the Hawks in the standings. A win today will take care of that. Also of note, last night's win was Price's 200th at KU.

I probably shouldn't get too much into individual statistics here. After all, this was no ordinary baseball game. Conclusions about player performance should not be drawn from what happened at Hoglund yesterday. Just the same, KU's two high-profile freshman position players simply demand some notice. Jimmy Waters (on the left) entered the game with three RBIs on the season. Last night he went 3-5 with a double and homerun, collecting five RBIs. Tony Thompson was not retired all night. He went 3-3 with a double, a homerun and three RBIs. Casey Larson and Erik Morrison also both collected three hits.

The miserable game conditions kept the crowd very low. I estimate there were no more than 500 people there in the early innings, and even this group of die hard Hawk fans thinned out as the night beat them down. The weather should be less abnormal for the remaining games. Roger Kahn once described watching a baseball game in the upper deck of Candlestick Park as similar to an Eskimo manhood initiation ceremony. I think I have a better idea of what he was describing after last’s night game.

vs.

Kansas Jayhawks (26-22, 5-13) vs. Oklahoma (29-17-1, 6-11-1)

Final Score Game One: Kansas 17 - Oklahoma 15
Final Score Game Two: Kansas 13 - Oklahoma 10
Final Score Game Three: Kansas 9 - Oklahoma 4

Kansas hosts Oklahoma this weekend at Hoglund Park. This will be a very important series for both teams. Oklahoma enters the weekend in 7th place in the Big-12, but they only lead Kansas and Texas Tech by one and a half games. Only the top eight teams make the conference tournament. The post-season will very much be on the minds of both teams this weekend. The Sooners have a tougher remaining schedule than Kansas. They still must play in-state rival Oklahoma State. They cannot be counting on picking up more than one win vs. the Cowboys. I am sure the Sooners know that if they lose in Lawrence the Jayhawks will likely pass them in the standings before the season wraps. On the Kansas side this home series gives them an excellent opportunity to hurt one of the three teams with whom they are competing for the two remaining tournament invitations. This series has all the makings for a terrific weekend of college baseball.

Friday 6PM: Nick Czyz (2-5, 5.72 ERA) vs. Andrew Doyle (6-3, 3.84 ERA)
Saturday 2PM: Andres Esquibel (3-4, 4.68) vs. Jeremy Erben (1-1, 4.47)
Sunday 1PM: T.J. Walz (3-0, 4.17) vs. Ryan Duke (5-3, 3.06)
Media: KLWN AM-1320 will broadcast all three games live. For those outside the Lawrence area steaming audio and video will be available through this site.

Scouting Oklahoma
Oklahoma started the year very hot. They entered conference play with a 17-5 record. For me at least this made them one of the two surprise Big-12 teams. I kept waiting for their pitching staff to implode and for them to fall to a level closer my expectations. Despite their struggles in conference play this implosion never really happened. The Sooners have stumbled here and there, including one very embarrassing loss at home to Southern Nazarene, an NAIA opponent, but they have continued to play tough and score occasional upsets. Two recent examples: after losing the first two games vs. Missouri two weekends ago the Sooners stormed back on Sunday to rout the Tigers 22-4. In their first mid-week game since the loss to Southern Nazarene the Sooners pulled off an enormous upset by toppling Wichita State 12-11. OU needs to be taken seriously. The Hawks cannot expect to win this weekend if they are not playing at their highest level.

By the numbers, Oklahoma is hitting .314/.385/.469 and scoring 7.1 runs per game. This gives them an offensive edge over KU. The Sooners starting lineup does not give opponents easy innings. Eight of their nine regulars are dangerous. Only Matt Harughty has an OPS under .800. Oklahoma has a nice balance of power (42 home runs and a .469 team slugging average), speed (60/83 stolen bases) and patience (.385 team on base percentage).

The OU pitching staff also sports impressive numbers. Oklahoma surrenders just a bit over five runs a game, which is a bit better than the NCAA average. Two of the three starters KU will face this weekend (Duke and Doyle) have ERAs under four. The success of the staff does not come through power pitching, instead they hold opponents to a low batting average (.272) and minimize extra base hits (2.3 per game). One area of weakness is that the Sooners have not established an effective closer this year. Jake McCarter leads the team with 23 relief appearances and 9 saves. McCarter has an ERA of 6.60 and has given up nine homeruns in thirty innings.

Oklahoma's defense is below average. Their overall fielding percentage is .964. One other potential factor in this series, the great plains of Kansas. If the game time wind is anything like it has been over the last day KU might be able to exploit the OU "pitch to contact" staff approach. Any fly ball on a gusty day is dangerous. All three KU starters can adjust well to these conditions. Czyz has an excellent flyball/groundball ratio (0.6). This, combined with his high strikeout ratio (9.61 K/9), makes him an ideal pitcher for windy conditions. Esquibel has managed to keep his FB/GB ratio on the positive side as well (0.8), while Walz put together a brilliant start two weeks ago in Lincoln on a windy day.

Be sure to check out bkmhoxx' preview of Oklahoma prospects here in the comments section. Print out a copy and bring it to the game. OU has a few players with real shots at making the bigs.

I am looking forward to seeing some nice crowds at Hoglund this weekend. I should be able to make all three games. Eight of KU's ten remaining games are at home. Soak up as much baseball as you can over these next few weeks. When the season is over all our lives will be that much poorer.

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