#9

Checking in at #9 in our Top 10 Performances of 2008 Countdown we have our first duo.  We head to a longstanding area of demise for Kansas fans and perhaps what was the best chance to break a streak that’s been around since the 1960’s. 

In case you haven’t figured it out I’m referring to Lincoln Nebraska and the sea of red.  Mark Mangino and the Jayhawks headed into Nebraska fresh off a big win over instate rival Kansas State.  The ship appeared to be headed in the right direction following that victory and Kansas fans and players had high hopes for their first win in Lincoln in years. 

An up and down offensive battle ensued and two Jayhawks led the charge for Kansas through the air. 

Jump into the post for a performance and game recap…

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After residing elsewhere for several weeks Rock Chalk Roundtable returns to Rock Chalk Talk. This week our contributors are Denverjhawk from Rock Chalk Talk, DJ from Hawk Digest, and HipHopopotomus from Kansas Football It's Business Time.

Here are this weeks questions...Jump to the post for the Answers...

1. First off and then we'll move on, what disappointed you the most
about last week's game?
 
2. How funny was it to watch head Powercat, Tim Fitzgerald, bumble the 
Gary Patterson story (if there ever was one)?
 
3. At 6-4, with two very tough games remaining, what are you looking 
for out of this team?
 
4. Though clearly still the favorite, Texas has not looked dominant 
since the Methzou shellacking. Is there a chance they peaked too early?
 
5. In order for Kansas to win this game, they must...

6. Big XII picks: MU@ISU, NU@KSU, A&M@Baylor, OSU@CU

Again...answers after the jump...

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A look at news and notes about Jayhawks and upcoming opponents...

• How costly a setback was the Nebraska loss.
• Big 12 North hopes begin to fade with the loss.
• KC Star Game Report.
• KU Athletics Recap.
• Final Stats and Box Score.
• KU Athletics game notes.

My Thoughts...Normally in a situation like this I would prefer to be a half full type of person but this morning as it all sinks in I would just assume get the negative out there.

Start with the offense.  Once again we regressed to our earlier habits offensively and an inability to establish a multi-dimensional offense.  The first half saw Todd Reesing as our most effective running option and that leads to injuries.  Clearly we weren't able to get a push in the middle as we did last week and that was apparent to nearly everyone watching very early on.  The blame lies with the lack of adjustment by the coaching staff to what would become an effective outside running game until the second half.  All that said we did get to halftime at 14-14 but with the turnovers we should have had a lead.

Positives on offense continue to be the same story line week after week.  Todd Reesing has a ton of heart and now stands alone as the top passer in Kansas history.  Jake Sharp quietly had a solid game, I think any struggles he may have seemed to have were more a result of poor playcalling than him.  Dezmon Briscoe is establishing himself as the playmaker we need and now sits atop the KU career touchdown reception list with 18 and he's only a sophomore.  I pains me to say but I think Kerry Meier is hurt more that we know, he seems a bit hampered out there and not nearly as effective as early in the year.

Defensively we just aren't there yet.  Kansas doesn't have the athletes or the players to compete against the pass happy Big 12.  The linebackers a group which I have long enjoyed watching were built for a different Big 12 and even more dissapointing yesterday is they didn't seem able to stop the run which has long been their strength.  Anytime a quarterback has 7 seconds to throw the football your not going to cover everybody and that's the frustrating reality of Kansas on defense this year.  Giving up 500+ yards isn't going to win a lot of games and the final two have some juggernaut offenses lining up.

One Positive is clearly James Holt.  A smaller, leaner, quicker linebacker that has shown the ability to rush the passer, play traditional linebacker and cover the pass.  This guy might be the mold for what we need to see in the future. 

Special teams...well I don't even want to talk about this one.

Overall this game stings a bunch.  I've never felt good about this one and always felt it would be a very possible stumbling block but it had become so much more critical for us that I had hoped as well.  Kansas will still be bowling this year as the country is short on even mediocre teams.  Still this is 4 years in a row without a losing record in Kansas football so if I can just keep it in perspective and avoid the sky high expectations that I think were so tempting after the Orange Bowl there is still a lot to look forward to with Mark Mangino and the Jayhawks in the future.  If there is one thing that is clearly different now from in  our past it's that this school and the athletic department are committed to making this a viable program and we can all rest a little easy when you think about the fact that we are angry because we didn't beat Nebraska in Lincoln.  I say that again, when in my lifetime did I expect to be angry about not beating Nebraska in Lincoln...Never!  We have still come a long way from the first 2-10 season under Coach Mangino, but I'm sure he'd be the first to say we have a long way to go.

Rock Chalk Jayhawk

                                                                                     image source: KUSports.com

Another year, another loss in Lincoln and yes this one stings a little more than usual.  Kansas brought it's best team in years into the frigid temperatures of Lincoln Nebraska but the result remained the same as an up and down season continues for the Jayhawks and their fans.

Looking at this from a football standpoint it's hard to sit here after forcing three turnovers and having a couple big calls go our way and feel like we were thoroughly beaten but that's the way it is.  Kansas' Orange Bowl season from a year ago has given way to a much tougher schedule filled with highs and lows and the one game I have been pointing to since the beginning of the season with concern has turned into the potential backbreaker.  Yes Kansas will regardless the outcomes of the final two games finish bowl eligible and in all liklihood play in a bowl, but it's awful frustrating to realize how much more work there is to be done.

The offense is it's own worst enemy, when they aren't getting penalties or giving up sacks they move the ball fairly effectively.  That said the offensive line was a shell of it's self compared to last week.  Granted the level of competition increased but I anticipated last week was a sign of things beginning to gel, that appears not to be the case. 

The defense forced three turnovers and played pretty strong in the first half but anytime you give up 500+ yards of offense it's hard to win a game.  It's clear that on this side of the ball we still need to develop the talent and athletes to compete week in and week out in the offense happy Big12.

Special teams is a joke...this is the area where some heads need to roll.  Our returner from last year who was so effective looks like he's playing football for the first time in his life.  The punting game was horrible even taking into account the cold weather.  Finally kickoffs, your offense goes down scores a go ahead TD and you manage to squib the kickoff 15 yards into the arms of a Husker who then gives them the ball at the 50 with little or no effort.  This is setting yourself up for failure and the special teams or not so special teams has been doing this all year.

Despite the negatives I never felt good about this one from the beginning of the year.  Going into Lincoln and getting a win is not easy and that's why I felt the South Florida game was so critical.  So here we are staring 6-6 in the face, my hope is the staff and players can man up for one final effort and beat someone they will be a dog against in either Texas or Missouri. 

Even without it though this team has still gone to back to back bowls we are building a program and that takes time.  The expectations probably rose quicker than they should have because of last years good fortune but we will be practicing into December, getting the young guys extra reps and continue to "saw wood."  

This was a tough one fellow Jayhawks but let's try to stay positive about the future and perhaps bring our expectations back to reality a bit while supporting this team for the remainder of the year.   

Rock Chalk Jayhawk and good game to our Husker foes.

Pay-Per-View.

A must-win game.

A win here lets us lose next week to Texas and still have a chance at winning the Big 12 North.

Let's get it on, boys.

A look at news and notes about Jayhawks and upcoming opponents...

The Good Guys...

• Daymond Patterson continues to adapt to his new responsibilities.
• KU Notebook
• A look back at last years incredible game against NU. 
• KU Prepares for a new look Husker team.
• Jeff Spikes learning from last years All American Kansas tackle.
• Tyler Lawrence and brother Blake will be on opposite sidelines this weekend.
• Jacob Branstetter shows off tackling skills.
• Kansas' offensive line is beginning to gel.
• Game Preview.

The Bad Guys...

• Huskers doing their best to block out last year.
• Some concerns this week over Coach Pelini's temper.
• Husker view of five keys to beating Kansas.

My thoughts...Coach Mangino has this team coming off its strongest performances of the year.  The Kansas State game saw an offensive line dominate from the outset and help to put up some huge numbers on the ground.  Defensively Kansas had by far it's most effective scheme of the year disrupting Josh Freeman and the Kansas State offense and forcing turnovers. 

This weekend the Jayhawks head to Lincoln and play a tougher opponent overall and certainly will be in a far more hostile environment.  There is a lot of history on the line and pressure for both sides.  If Kansas comes out again establishes a ground game and a balanced offensive attack I don't expect the Huskers will be able to stop them consitently.  If they can do this and again exceed expectations defensively look for Kansas to come out of Lincoln with the win.

The most important thing the Jayhawks can do is come out strong like they did last week and keep the Husker faithful out of the game.  While both teams will be playing strength against weakness the whole game I think Kansas' strengths are more of a mismatch for the Huskers weaknesses than vice versa. 

Final Score:  Kansas 37  Nebraska 31

Also here is your friendly reminder to join fellow Hawks in the open thread if you don't already have plans...I will be sporting blue in a sea of red as I per tradition will be watching the game at a Husker bar with a friend.  It's his home game so I have to go to his turf...sucks.

Full list of supplemental notes...and highlights after the jump...

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			VS.
Conf	National	Actual	Category	Actual	National	Conf
Rank	Rank				Rank	Rank
7	61	146.56	Rushing Offense	155.22	54	6
5	10	299	Passing Offense	287.78	14	7
6	18	445.56	Total Offense	443	20	6
7	24	34.44	Scoring Offense	32.56	31	8
3	30	110.78	Rushing Defense	143.44	67	7
4	55	121.83	Pass Effic. Defense	137.98	96	11
7	82	381.33	Total Defense	375.33	76	6
6	68	26.33	Scoring Defense	28.44	80	8
7	77	34.05	Net Punting	32.59	98	9
3	23	12.68	Punt Returns	14.54	17	2
12	119	15.79	Kickoff Return	22.59	37	8
8	57	.11	Turnover Margin	-1	103	11
9	110	270.56	Pass Defense	231.89	84	3
7	17	150.80	Passing Efficiency	152.46	16	6
5	37	2.22	Sacks	1.78	62	7
4	47	6.00	Tackles for a Loss	5.33	77	9
8	T-63	1.89	Sacks Allowed	1.56	42	6

As expected Kansas saw a noticable increase in the rushing offense that has been trending upward since the Iowa State game.  Defensively not much changed although the Jayhawks are back on the right side of the turnover magrin.

What stands out to me this week is clearly Nebraska is a middle tier team in the Big 12 in almost every category.  Kansas is much more up and down statistically and that is a little concerning depending on what team shows up in Lincoln.

  I think this game is decided because Kansas is better at stopping the run and are more potent passing the ball on offense.  The blackshirts are still on sabatical and when they return watch out but this year Kansas pulls it off and ends the streak.

Rock Chalk Jayhawk.

1968, that was the last time a Kansas Jayhawk football team went into Lincoln and emegred with a victory.  Could this year be different?  Mark Mangino brings Kansas' best team in a long time to face the Cornhuskers and Bo Pelini and the Huskers are a team rebuilding.  Make no mistake though beating Nebraska in front of 80,000+ rabid Husker fans will never be easy and Kansas certainly has it's work cut out for themselves.

So what should we expect when the Kansas offense takes the field? How about the defense?  Special Teams?  Here's a look at what team takes the ede in various scenario's on the field.

Why Kansas?	Edge	Scenario	Edge	Why Nebraska?
Kansas put together it's most balanced attack of the year last week and confidence appears to be at an all time high.  I look for Kansas to again establish the run against a middle of the pack defense and that will allow Todd Reesing the room to make enough plays against the 11th ranked pass defense in the conference to win this game.  The black shirts aren't back yet and Kansas get's the edge in this matchup.		KU Offense vs. Nebraska Defense		Nebraska can gain an edge here if they do two things.  Reign in the rediscovered Kansas running game and then force Todd Reesing and the Kansas passing game into mistakes.  The first one is possible but don't expect the Huskers who rank 96th in pass defense, 80th in scoring defense and 103rd in turnover margin to hold down the Kansas passing game
For several weeks this was an easy edge to the other team.  However the defensive scheme and success last week have led to a little extra thought.  I think as a whole at Lincoln the Nebraska offense which ranks 20th in the country does have the edge but I think if the James Holt move sticks, we get Richard Johnson back in the rotation and the revamped secondary shows equal improvement from K-State to Nebraska as it did from Tech to K-State, Kansas could cause Joe Ganz some fits and force a turnover or two to win this game.		KU Defense vs. Nebraska Offense		I'll give Nebraska the nod here as they do field the 20th ranked overall offense and 14th ranked passing offense.  They also gave a Tech defense that shutdown both Kansas and Texas for a good chunk of the game trouble.  I don't expect Joe Ganz to implode like he did last week and while Kansas should contain the running game I'm not yet sold on our ability to stop a pass happy quarterback.  Edge here to Nebraska although the margin was slimmer.
While Kansas seems to have plugged the holes here to some extent they still rank last in Kickoff returns and without a couple touchdown saving tackles last week by kicker Jacob Branstetter things might have been a little different.  Still not ready to say Kansas has an edge here.		Special Teams		Nebraska has put together a decent return game this week and an excellent piece on their return man on Gameday last weekend.  At the same time they are average on coverage but that shouldn't be a factor against a KU team that doesn't return well.  If anyone is going to change the game with this category it's the Huskers so in terms of special teams, edge Corn.
Mangino & Company accomplished a 180 following the Tech loss with a masterful gameplan against K-State.  Oh yeah did I mention he took Kansas to the Orange Bowl last year		Coaching		Defensive minded Bo Pelini has a bright future in an offense happy Big 12.  However his self professed anger problem shows he still isn't a polished head man.

Here's the thing...winning in Lincoln is never going to be easy, at the same time Kansas may never have this good a chance again.  While looking at the analysis it seems split pretty evenly, but I expect where Kansas has an edge it is a bigger edge than where Nebraska has an edge.  The matchup to me that ultimately determines if we Kansas handles business is when the KU defense is facing Joe Ganz and the Husker offense.

After the way the defense performed last week I am again confident in them and see a Kansas win by a close margin in the end.  The hawks are not favored in this one anymore but again in staying with our election week theme.  Yes We Can!!!

Highlights from today's press conference w/Coach Mangino and KU Players...

Head Coach Mark Mangino

Opening remarks:

“We had a great effort from both the offense and the defense (last week vs. Kansas State). We played well. We played sound, fundamental football. I was pleased overall with the performance. There are still things to build off of, but certainly it was a good springboard as we head into the home stretch of the season.”

“This week we travel to Lincoln to play Nebraska. They are a good football team and they are much improved from a year ago. Defensively, they are much improved. They have a different system. They are teaching their kids good, fundamental football. On offense they have been very effective. Joe Ganz is a quality quarterback. He is sometimes forgotten in this league, but I haven’t forgotten about him. I think he has passed for about 2,500 yards this year. They have quality receivers to throw the ball to in Todd Peterson and Nate Swift. To put things into perspective, Nate Swift passed Johnny Rogers on the all-time reception list at Nebraska. He is moving in here to take over as the all-time leader in career receiving yardage at Nebraska. You are talking about a quality football player when you mention somebody in the same breath as Johnny Rogers.

“They are running the ball pretty well. They have a couple of really good running backs. (Marlon) Lucky is a talented kid and so is (Roy) Helu. We are preparing hard and hopefully we will continue to have a good week.”

New This Week...After the Jump get player quotes, notes and quick look at some team statistics.

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Quick disclaimer...I do not enodrse or intend to endorse any presidential candidate with this story.  To be honest I can't wait until this election is over because I'm tired of the phone calls.  That said it is clear to me that this years presidential election is a clear indicator that the Kansas Jayhawks will break their streak of losses in Lincoln...

What do Barack Obama and the Mark Mangino led Kansas Jayhawks football team have in common.  Well in a historic year they could both bring success for their respective parties in states where it has long eluded them.  Barack Obama presents "change" to the country and that message seems to be ringing true in republican strongholds around the nation.  Mark Mangino preaches "sawin’ wood" across the Big 12 landscape and has an opportunity to change the fortunes of the Kansas Jayhawks in a former Big 12 power's stronghold.  The locations are different but the goal is the same Barack wants to win an election and Mangino wants to win a game.  Taking into account the most recent CNN polls let’s analyze the odds and see what seems to be taking shape.

Kansas and Nebraska first squared off in 1892 and the football game has been continually played since 1906.  This certainly hasn't been a series Kansas has been the most successful in, only managing an overall record of 22-88-3.  This record included a 36 consecutive game losing streak that stretched from 1969 until 2005.  Fortunately recent years have brought a little bit of balance to the matchup as the Jayhawks snapped the streak in 2005 with a 40-15 victory in Lawrence.  After losing in a 2006 thriller in Lincoln, Kansas returned home in 2007 to shock the Huskers with a 76-39 victory.  However, one streak has remained and that is the fact that Kansas hasn't won in Lincoln since 1968.

The republicans and democrats first squared off in the presidential election of 1792.  That battle has waged on through Civil Wars, World Wars and a Great Depression.  While the tide of this rivalry has had a more balanced result over the years recent history has not been kind to the democrats in certain states much like the past years have not been kind to Kansas in the State of Nebraska.  As we approach this historic election nothing is certain but it would appear based on “100% accurate polls” that Barack Obama and Mark Mangino might well be breaking a few streaks in some critical battleground states.

The State of Virginia...

• Barack Obama and John McCain are in a dead heat but recent polls have Barack Obama winning this state for the first time since 1964.

Indiana

• Again a state long considered a republican stronghold has not selected a democratic President since 1964.  Here again Obama appears poised to possibly break that streak

North Carolina

• Roy Williams, Dean Smith and the rest of the State appear ready for change and prepared to vote for the first Democratic candidate since 1976.

North Dakota

• Another republican stronghold in a dogfight to fend off the Obama change express and the democrats who haven’t received the electoral from the Fighting Sioux since 1964.

Finally and Most Importantly Nebraska.......

• While Barack and the Democrats really have nothing to do with this state Mark Mangino is carrying the flag for the campaign for change and takes a formidable Kansas team to the doorstep of destiny during election week 2008.  Kansas has a 3 point lead in the latest CNN polls and has a chance to make it happen.

One could argue that Tuesday is the most important day for our countries future and states like Virginia, North Carolina etc. will determine the fate of our great nation.  I however think it is clear that the fate of our Nation will be decided not on election Tuesday but on a Saturday in Lincoln when Mark Mangino and the Kansas Jayhawks laugh history in the face and go all out for the first Kansas win in Lincoln since 1968.  Yes we can!!!! Hope, Change and all that other stuff.

I’m Denverjhawk and I approve this message….

A preview of the weeks programming after the jump...

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This year's Kansas team is good. One could argue, and I did prior to the season, that this year's team is actually more talented than last year's 12-1, Orange Bowl Champion team. Whether it is or isn't is of little consequence, the facts clearly show that this team is better than nearly all of the teams in Kansas football history, and is nothing to be ashamed of. If last season would have been more of a gradual step up to, say, 8-4 or so, we would all be quite enthused by this 3-1 start, despite the heartbreaking loss in Tampa. And, realistically, we are likely expecting what would be another 4-loss season as the very best possible finish to this season, with a 6-6 step back not being entirely out of the question.

Entering the year expectations were at an all-time high for Kansas football. While there was no National Championship talk, and even winning the Big 12 was largely considered out of the question, we all expected, based off of last season's tremendous ride, for the Jayhawks to make some noise in the national picture, have a chance to win the Big 12 North and, hell, maybe even sneak into a BCS Bowl if everything were to fall just right. My preseason predictions pegged us at roughly 9-3, with 8-4 being the relative worst to expect and 10-2 being the ceiling.This, while considered a down year, even a potential fireable one, at plenty of schools nationwide is a newfangled idea in Lawrence.

However, the four games that we have seen since those expectations were showered on this team have not, well, let's just say they haven't exactly been achieved. A loss in Tampa was a setback, sure, but the actual loss in itself isn't too big of a concern. In all seriousness, while expecting a win against the Bulls, it wasn't a terrible shock to lose in such a hostile environment against such a good, talented team. How it happened, however, and the problems it gave rise to weren't so expected and weren't part of the equation that spat out a 9-3 regular season record in July and August.

And now here we are, sitting out a crossroads, unsure just where we will end up when all is said and done. However, while we just could improve enough to keep our preseason expectations a realistic goal, 9-3 seems to be a near impossibility at this point. Of course, that has as much to do with our Big 12 slate as it does with the offensive line and defensive line problems.

Just for fun, take a look at the most recent AP Top 25. And then, in case you have yet to engrain it into your brain, take a gander at Kansas' schedule. We still have a trip to the current #1 team in the entire country in Oklahoma. Then, the very next week, we will take on the current #7 Red Raiders of Texas Tech. A month-or-so later the 5th ranked Texas Longhorns pay a visit to Lawrence and then, in late November, we will take on the 4th ranked Missouri Tigers in Arrowhead.

But you knew all of that. But when put in such a way where half of our remaining 8 games are going to take place against teams currently among the Top 7 in the country, you kind of freak out. Not in a terribly, well, frightening way, sure, but in a sorta way that makes you seriously question, given our obvious holes, whether we can win even one of that set of four games.

While this likely goes without saying, I think we should be willing to accept a 7-5 year this year. Well, maybe not accept it, but at least be prepared for such a season. Sure, we could still, conceivably, find a way to win 9 games this year. Just to make things clear, I am, by no means, giving up on the season. I am looking forward to one of the most exciting conference seasons in Kansas football history and for our program to continue to rise up and reach the top of the college football ladder. We are, without a doubt, a program on the rise and a near-surefire contender for a Big 12 North title each and every year.

And now, just to close out this unnecessarily long post (I got carried away; sorry if it became unbearable), here is my revised prediction for how all of the conference games will fare:

@ Iowa State - WIN

vs. Colorado - WIN

@ Oklahoma - LOSS

vs. Texas Tech - WIN

vs. Kansas State - WIN

@ Nebraska - WIN

vs. Texas - LOSS

vs. Missouri - LOSS

Sorry, that is just how I see things shaking down. Discussion and disagreement is certainly allowed, and considering that I will actually get to attend the Kansas vs. Texas game (YAY!), it is depressing to currently mark it down as a L. However, they have looked substantially better thus far. But I digress. More on the UT Longhorns a little later on.

For now, just remember one thing: even if we go 8-4 (or hell, even 7-5), it doesn't mean we are on the downturn. In fact, it may be a positive, given the relative youth of our impact players and the treacherous schedule.