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Kansas Basketball: A (semi) Statistical Recap of Baylor

Midway through the first half I was planning on writing one of the more scathing rants of all time. I had expected the team to come out a bit flat after a deflating loss on Saturday, but I didn't expect them to be down ten early. But in true Bill Self fashion Kansas came back to take a slim lead at the half, and then went on a 21-1 run to start the second half. It doesn't always work out that well obviously, but I can't remember the last time Kansas came out worse in the second half than in the first. I'm not sure how Bill Self keeps pulling off halftime speeches like that, but I'm sure glad he does.

To provide the starkest of contrasts, I'm not terribly sure about the strategy Baylor drew up. They played a lot of zone, which I understand is their bread and butter, but I would take my chances against a zone where the defense isn't packed into the paint any day of the week. Secondly, Baylor took just eight threes all game, 11.1% of the field goals they attempted. They only made 2 of them, one each from Pierre Jackson and Quincy Miller. I certainly understand establishing an inside presence and working inside out, but Jackson shoots 47%, Miller shoots 42%, and Brady Heslip, who only shot one three, shoots 44%. I can't say I know what the thought behind that was. If it was to establish the inside game, they didn't do that very well either as Baylor made only 39% of their twos. As a result the third best offense in the conference scored only .84 points per trip.

Offensively Kansas shot the ball as well as they have all year, with a 57.8% eFG. They shot 55% from two, but Baylor's two point defense has been surprisingly poor in Big 12 play, allowing opponents to shoot almost 50% from two, so perhaps the good feelings from this one should be tempered a bit.

Despite how well they played, there are a couple negatives to highlight: for one, they turned it over on about 30% of their possessions. Baylor forces their fair share of turnovers, but that is far too often to turn it over. And, while Baylor is 8th in the league and 226th in the country in turning it over, Kansas wasn't able to take advantage, forcing turnovers on just 18.8% of the Bears' possessions. Lastly, the rebounding wasn't there yet again, as Kansas had a 29.2% offensive rebounding rate against a poor defensive rebounding team (though they did a decent job at limiting Baylor on the offensive glass).

Lastly, while it was disappointing to see Baylor make a late charge, I don't think it's anything to worry about: it's human nature to let up a bit late when the game is out of hand, and with all of the minutes everyone has had to play all year, it's probably better in the long run they took a bit of a rest out there.

For the record, when lopping off the final three minutes when Kansas let their foot off the gas a bit Kansas had a PPP of 1.12 points per possession and Baylor's was just .81. Every minute counts obviously, but let's not let a couple minutes tarnish the domination that took place last night in Waco.

Star-divide

  • Speaking of total domination, Jeff Withey had a career high 25 points, and did it so efficiently that it conjured memories of Marcus and Markieff Morris. Withey went 8-10 from two and 9-11 from the line for an eFG of 80% and a true shooting percentage of just over 82%. He added 5 rebounds and had 3 blocks, including one that I thought he was going to slap through the backboard. Yours truly made a joke that Withey was the Francisco Pizarro to Baylor's Incan Empire, which I think both sounds ridiculous but also makes total sense given how he played last night.
  • Tyshawn Taylor apparently stole Baylor's three point shooting prowess, going 4-7 from behind the arc and is now up to 44% on the year. But his most memorable shot was going coast to coast and making a spinning layup while being fouled [ed. note: someone remind me to pull the video so I can fanshot it later]
  • Conner Teahan had a great game, going 2-3 from three and 1-1 from two. He didn't turn it over either, though he came remarkably close on the play that set up his layup.
  • Elijah Johnson had another horrendous game shooting, going 0-2 from two and 0-4 from three. But he did have 5 assists to just 1 turnover. It is much too early to talk about this, but I actually am quite bullish on him as a heady pass first point guard next season. There are definite issues to fix there, but I trust both the coaches and Elijah to do so.
  • Releford had just one point, but it looked to me that he played really good defense, and I tend to think of Releford as a guy who you know is having a good game when his name isn't being spoken a lot on the telecast. I definitely think he has the ability to score consistently like he did early in the conference slate, but I also think that it's bad news for the team if he is relied upon to do so a lot.
  • I'm again stealing something I tweeted last night, but I will never ever ever ever get tired of Bill Self giving Scott Drew the blow off handshake.
Poll
Player of the game?
Withey
214 votes
Someone else
6 votes

220 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 72 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I think you can make a pretty serious argument that T2 had a better game

Withey was awesome but for the most part he was just taking what the zone was giving him. I thought T2 played one of his better all-around games of the season.

The name of that song played at KC Comets games in the '80's was Giorgio Moroder's "The Chase." Now you know.

by labbadabba on Feb 9, 2012 9:21 AM CST reply actions  

I'd also lean toward T2 as our most valuable player this game

He kept us close early, and he was instrumental in carving up the Baylor zone and getting Withey great looks. The only question I have is whether Pierre Jackson was his primary defensive responsibility because I felt like Jackson was driving at will against us during much of the game.

by KSinDC on Feb 9, 2012 9:36 AM CST up reply actions  

he was, and he was

that’s mainly why i went away from it. I understand the thought behind having Tyshawn be the MVP though. I just wanted to highlight the Withmeister

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 9, 2012 11:23 AM CST up reply actions  

I have no problem with that

We need more people to understand that There’s Strong, and then There’s Withey Strong

by KSinDC on Feb 9, 2012 11:49 AM CST up reply actions  

How does any post player NOT want to come to Kansas?

Sure, you’re probably not going to be one-and-done, because that’s just not how Self plays his bigs, but you’re going to learn from the best, and when you leave, if you’re any good at all when you come in, you will be A LOTTERY PICK. If you weren’t all that good, you’ll still be drafted. Any post player coming to KU with a skill set ranging from Darnell Jackson as a freshman to Darrell Arthur as a freshman will PLAY IN THE NBA.

Who turns that down?

The poster formerly known as DCJayhawk0208

by PDXJayhawk on Feb 9, 2012 11:56 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't understand how we aren't getting more top big men

We ought to be able to get any big man who’s considering Baylor.

I’ll have to console myself with the fact that the less highly touted big men we do get end up being All-Americans.

by KSinDC on Feb 9, 2012 12:00 PM CST up reply actions  

and National Players of the Year

…knock on wood…

….And lottery picks….

The poster formerly known as DCJayhawk0208

by PDXJayhawk on Feb 9, 2012 12:07 PM CST up reply actions  

Bill & Danny

make their big men work. You think Perry Jones has to work his ass off to see the court for Baylor? A lot of these kids want things just handed to them, they think that they already have all the skill they’ll need.

Pay heed...

by pj_hawk4life on Feb 10, 2012 8:36 AM CST up reply actions  

I'd also lean toward T2 as our most valuable player

and as such his contribution this game is as important. The new performer just needs the reco.

by dagger108 on Feb 9, 2012 9:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Someone commented on what Withey's ORtg might be.

but it’s actually not that great; he had six turnovers which dropped it down to like 115. The KU team that played a lot of the first half was pretty awful.

Good job shutting down Baylor. I’m glad EJ is really taking to this thing called “defense”.

by sax solo on Feb 9, 2012 9:32 AM CST reply actions  

the Kentucky and K-State games

come to mind as games where we came out worse in the second than the first, but in general, we do seem like a second half team

Use the forks

by PenHawk on Feb 9, 2012 9:33 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

I really feel like we win as long as we play the other team even in the first half and last 15:00

We are so good coming out of the halftime break.

Obviously, there are a hundred things to point to when looking at what differentiates a great coach like Self from a terrible one like Gill, but the performance after the halftime break always stands out for me.

by KSinDC on Feb 9, 2012 9:34 AM CST reply actions  

We all remember

the late-game comebacks when whatever team pulls one out of their @$$. But the large majority of games are decided like the one against Baylor on Wednesday – in the interval between the under-4 media timeout first half and the under-16 second half.

That may be one more example of coach Self playing the percentages by having everyone ready to pour it on for that period of the game.

RRROOOOCK CHAAAALLLK! JAAAAYYYHAAAAWWWK! KAAAAYYY UUuuuUU!

by KU62 on Feb 10, 2012 10:16 AM CST up reply actions  

Great analysis on the quality of the defense last night

And how Baylor’s shot selection played into that.

I wonder if part of Pierre Jackson’s ability to drive last night could be the result of a renewed emphasis on 3-pt defense? There certainly seemed to be less help from the perimeter defenders on his drives last night.

by KSinDC on Feb 9, 2012 9:41 AM CST reply actions  

that's a really good point

a really big part of 3 point defense is number of threes you give up, so maybe they wanted to make him drive? I bet you’re right

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 9, 2012 11:24 AM CST up reply actions  

EJ says you can't shoot what you can't catch

denial was definitely a part of the limiting the 3’s with Heslip. Different approach for Jackson, but still a commitment to limiting the 3. Stop the shot and trust team D and recovery to limiting the O.

by dagger108 on Feb 9, 2012 9:43 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't want to rely on Releford to score

But I want him to be confident in his ability to, and that confidence seems to have drained away after his scoring burst around New Year’s.

His defender needs to respect his ability to drive in order to keep his passing lanes open. I hope to see him take it to the hoop a couple times on Saturday.

by KSinDC on Feb 9, 2012 9:46 AM CST reply actions  

yes

when Releford had that stretch he was so confident on the floor and was almost Brandon Rush-esqe. I don’t know where that went

The name of that song played at KC Comets games in the '80's was Giorgio Moroder's "The Chase." Now you know.

by labbadabba on Feb 9, 2012 10:21 AM CST up reply actions  

I think Travis

has bought into the ‘defensive specialist’ role so completely that he rests up during offensive possessions. Most players feel it on offense when their D is at its best, but he doesn’t seem to.

Having him consistently get into the heads of good/great scorers is more valuable, but our offense is formidable when all our guys are a threat every possession.

RRROOOOCK CHAAAALLLK! JAAAAYYYHAAAAWWWK! KAAAAYYY UUuuuUU!

by KU62 on Feb 10, 2012 10:23 AM CST up reply actions  

Blow-off handshake?

I seem to be missing something – can someone enlighten me?

by kuoirad on Feb 9, 2012 9:52 AM CST reply actions  

You have that right –

not only for coach Self, but all the coaches in the league. I’m surprised no one has given him the knock-down shoulder slap like Harbaugh did to someone this year.

Really, Drew isn’t nearly the a-hole he was a few years back, but a reputation is a hard thing to rehabilitate.

RRROOOOCK CHAAAALLLK! JAAAAYYYHAAAAWWWK! KAAAAYYY UUuuuUU!

by KU62 on Feb 10, 2012 10:27 AM CST up reply actions  

IMO, the post-game handshake is overrated

Why the TV networks have to show it every time baffles me. It’s only exciting when fisticuffs ensue.

by jayhawk1996 on Feb 9, 2012 10:01 AM CST up reply actions  

nothing else to show at the time.

Tho there would probably be some votes for the cheerleaders.

by dagger108 on Feb 9, 2012 9:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Is there something I'm missing

is there bad blood between Self and Drew?

The name of that song played at KC Comets games in the '80's was Giorgio Moroder's "The Chase." Now you know.

by labbadabba on Feb 9, 2012 10:22 AM CST up reply actions  

Does anyone know/remember...

Was Withey very highly sought after/hyped at all when he decided to go to Zona? I know he was relatively invisible before this year getting sparse minutes last season behind the Morrii and TRob. Kinda want to know if he’s a ‘built-up-from-nothing guy’ courtesy of Danny Manning or if Zona just wasn’t a good fit for him?

by Scott_Pilgrim on Feb 9, 2012 10:17 AM CST reply actions  

Well, he was a 4-star recruit

The name of that song played at KC Comets games in the '80's was Giorgio Moroder's "The Chase." Now you know.

by labbadabba on Feb 9, 2012 10:21 AM CST up reply actions  

I think he left Arizona because they were on their 4th coach in 3 years

He was recruited by Olson originally. I think he probably just got tired of the revolving door.

by KSinDC on Feb 9, 2012 10:54 AM CST up reply actions  

#36 overall recruit on Rivals.

For perspective, Marcus was #29 and Markieff was #49. Both were in the same class as Withey.

by MJR on Feb 9, 2012 11:43 AM CST up reply actions  

How many teams get 3 top-50 post guys

From the same class? Admittedly, we got in late on Withey, but still. That class has to go down as one of the best classes in KU history. Kieff, Mook, Ty, Withey – that’s four impact players, a 4-year starter, a Big XII POY, a lottery pick, and a guy that will be a lottery pick after next year if he continues to play as he is. Not to mention 3 Big XII titles and 2 No. 1 seeds.

by 2.1 seconds left on Feb 9, 2012 5:35 PM CST up reply actions  

withey's not a lottery pick.

but yes it is a hell of a class.

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 9, 2012 5:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Withey won't be a lottery pick

But he will be the man next year, with a rotating crop of post men to take focus off of him:

A) Jamari Traylor
B) Perry Ellis
C) Landen Lucas
D) Zach Peters

That’s scary.

The poster formerly known as DCJayhawk0208

by PDXJayhawk on Feb 9, 2012 6:08 PM CST up reply actions  

yep

should be a good time. I’m guessing at least one of those guys redshirts though

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 9, 2012 6:14 PM CST up reply actions  

now all we need is a PG...

The name of that song played at KC Comets games in the '80's was Giorgio Moroder's "The Chase." Now you know.

by labbadabba on Feb 10, 2012 8:28 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

call me crazy

but I think EJ + Tharpe will be ok next year

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 10, 2012 6:54 PM CST up reply actions  

My guess is Peters

Lucas has been tearing it up out here in Portland. There’s even a group of alums going to his game tonight to show support!

Starters:

  • Johnson
  • McLemore
  • Releford
  • Ellis
  • Withey

Tharpe will be the fourth guard, unless Anrio Adams gets his grades up and is better than advertised. Traylor and Lucas will be the 3rd and 4th bigs.

The poster formerly known as DCJayhawk0208

by PDXJayhawk on Feb 10, 2012 4:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Withey won't be a lottery if he doesn't improve more in the next year

Personally, I’m betting on him improving more in the next year, and being more offensive as the senior leader. Besides, 7’ shot blockers are just too rare at any level.

by dagger108 on Feb 9, 2012 9:51 PM CST up reply actions  

That we’re even using the words “Withey” and “lottery” in the same sentence blows my mind.

The poster formerly known as DCJayhawk0208

by PDXJayhawk on Feb 10, 2012 4:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Fair enough.

Just glad to see him doing so well after waiting his turn behind our other big guys. It’s nice to see that pay off and watch him become a better player. Also, anyone think Self should make everyone who shoots a lower free throw percentage than Jeff in practice run extra? Jeff’s just an assassin from the line.

by Scott_Pilgrim on Feb 9, 2012 10:24 AM CST reply actions  

I will say one thing I noticed last night -

I knew we were going to win when the camera showed the Baylor players coming off the floor at halftime. Sure they were the #6 team in the country who just blew a big lead on the home floor but seriously these guys looked defeated walking off that floor.

Their faces were down, they were making ‘aw, shucks’ gestures with their hands, they moped into the locker room. If I’m a Baylor fan and I see that, I’m upset. These guys should have been pissed, they should have been hot and fired up. What I saw was a team that simply folded at the end of the first half and nothing happened during the break get get them back up and going.

All KU needed to do was to step on their throats and they were done, no fight at all. I’m sure Mizzou is licking their chops.

The name of that song played at KC Comets games in the '80's was Giorgio Moroder's "The Chase." Now you know.

by labbadabba on Feb 9, 2012 10:49 AM CST reply actions  

I know lots of Baylor fans

And they are upset – hoping the players can feel that frustration turn it around and upset Mizzou on Saturday. Not needed, but it would help.

by jayhawk1996 on Feb 9, 2012 11:01 AM CST up reply actions  

It's needed.

We’re going to drop another game, KSU and Texas can both beat us.

The name of that song played at KC Comets games in the '80's was Giorgio Moroder's "The Chase." Now you know.

by labbadabba on Feb 9, 2012 11:04 AM CST up reply actions  

Also

It would help if Baylor fans stayed to support their team for the whole game. Was easy to see who the hard-core supporters were, compared to those who started heading for the exits with 12 minutes to play. The arena was half-full at the under 8 timeout.

by jayhawk1996 on Feb 9, 2012 12:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Agreed

Not to mention @ Oklahoma St on the monday right after the Mizzou game.

by jhwk316 on Feb 9, 2012 12:31 PM CST up reply actions  

we are playing texas at home on senior night

texas can beat us on a neutral court but I don’t see that happening that night

by fizzle406 on Feb 9, 2012 12:31 PM CST up reply actions  

UT couldn't beat us in their home

as long as the guys wake up for the game, we’ll be fine.

by dagger108 on Feb 9, 2012 9:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Yep to all the above.

Really need someone to hand Mizzou another L, and preferably two of course.

by sax solo on Feb 9, 2012 3:00 PM CST up reply actions  

UT couldn't beat us at their place

not much chance of them doing it in the Phog.

The feralcats were also suppose to be competitive in the Phog, but like Baylor not so much. Is there a chance? Sure. There’s always a chance, but I really like our chances.

We are likely to be as focused against mizzoo as we are against those 2, so I’m not really worried about that game either. The question to me is whether there is an “indifference” game like OSU and TT in different years past.

by dagger108 on Feb 9, 2012 9:57 PM CST up reply actions  

@ OSU will be tough

It’s on Big Monday, just 48 short hours after the Missouri game.

by hiphopopotamus on Feb 10, 2012 8:06 AM CST up reply actions  

I missed them coming out at halftime

But I still remember when they showed a couple guys on the Baylor bench while we were on that run. I’ve never seen players look so dejected and upset during a regular season game. They looked like they were a 1 seed going down to a 16 seed in the first round of the tourney.

by MJR on Feb 9, 2012 11:51 AM CST up reply actions  

I think Baylor is ripe for a major first-round upset because of this lack of mental toughness

If they get on the ropes to a low seed, I just don’t see that this team has the fight in it to overcome that adversity.

by KSinDC on Feb 9, 2012 11:54 AM CST up reply actions  

mizzoo was running all over them for 75% of the game in Baylor

but the bears came back and made a serious game of it. The difference being that KU plays serious D, and Scotty doesn’t know how to deal with that.

by dagger108 on Feb 9, 2012 10:07 PM CST up reply actions  

I think their comeback against MU was helped by a home crowd

I don’t think Baylor Nation travels that well, and fans love an upset, so they’ll definitely have the crowd against them if they’re down in the tournament.

by KSinDC on Feb 9, 2012 11:36 PM CST up reply actions  

This.

Baylor does not respond well to a punch in the nose. If you hammer them hard right out the gate, or hang around them long enough to put together a run, you can almost see the fight leaving them. Now they only have three losses, but the two to us they just collapsed and you could read it. Reminded me of Texas only more on a single-game scale rather than the entire season. They just get tired or frustrated late and if every variable isn’t just perfect, they just don’t play to their potential.

by Scott_Pilgrim on Feb 9, 2012 12:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Not so sure

They looked pissed at halftime. I remember that one of them hit something in the tunnel (kudos to ESPN for getting a great shot).
I think they struggle with us because FHOFNCHCBC makes Scott Drew look stupid. They have crazy talent, so that they can play basic basketball and beat most people. Drew changed up his zone and they had us for the 1st 10 min (we didn’t help out own cause much either). But then Self moved Withey into the zone just oustide the paint and they had no answer (Mizzou did the same with Ratliffe in the other loss). I think in both our games against ud the players were doing exactly what Drew was asking them to do, and it wasn’t working and he had no answers. It wasn’t that they got punched in the nose. It was that they quit on the coach. This would also explain the many late season swoons we have seen Baylor take in the past.

I always drink the Kool-Aid
Going for #8 in a row!

by bt01 on Feb 9, 2012 1:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Good points

I wasn’t saying that we necessarily punched them in the nose, at least not right away. Watched the replay and they were doing fine until we dropped a couple three’s (thank you, Teahan for making those when it was close). They came out the second half got a quick bucket and then things just started going south.

I’m terrible at analysis of positioning and formations but I watch the players’ body language as close as I can and you can see it in the looks on their faces. The frustration that builds when we keep scoring despite Baylor likely doing exactly what their coach instructed as you brought up. Frustration leads to sloppiness without iron discipline and hence he had that lovely technical in Miller which pretty much I summed up what everyone on Baylor was feeling. Adding insult to that is that we turned that event into a seven point play, putting us from up 8 (striking distance for Baylor) to 15 (a real mountain to climb if your shots aren’t dropping and you’re not getting second/third chances from rebounds).

I wouldn’t say we clocked them so much as we put them in a position of unease and got them out of sync. No doubt Baylor expected to win this game given their exasperation or at least play us close and they essentially let us back in it in the first half and we capitalized on that huge drought. They’ve got the talent but they’re being wildly misused. It’s kinda tragic.

by Scott_Pilgrim on Feb 9, 2012 1:29 PM CST up reply actions  

This quote says it all

"Them having a great coaching staff over there, they adjusted to it, and we didn’t answer back."
Baylor point guard Pierre Jackson talking about the why the 1st 10 min was different.

I always drink the Kool-Aid
Going for #8 in a row!

by bt01 on Feb 9, 2012 10:45 PM CST up reply actions  

Withey was great.

TT was also great and even Teahan show notable improvement. T-Rbob got back on track in the 2nd half. Releford and EJ were pretty much invisible on the offensive side but played well on D. We need to bust those two lose on the offensive end. If we can do that, this will be a dangerous team.

Great win and a very important win too. But every game is a must-win still because I don’t think Missouri is likely to lose another game until they come to AFH. It is obvious that we are not going to get much help from the rest of the Big 12 so it will be up to us to prevent Missouri from winning the Big 12 for the first time, just as they head to the SEC.

by Marty_ on Feb 9, 2012 1:45 PM CST reply actions  

I think Mizzou drops one at home

They’ve got KSU, who manhandled them in Manhattan, Baylor, who I still think matches up perfectly against them, and ISU’s band of underdogs coming to town.

by jayhawk3r on Feb 9, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm thinking the same

If Mizzou goes through the rest of their schedule (less the KU game) unscathed then I will concede that they are truly a top 5 team and final four contender. Not that they aren’t a really good team I just don’t know what to think about them yet

by jhwk316 on Feb 9, 2012 2:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Hope you're right...

That would take some of the must-win pressure off. But I was already convinced they were legit before they beat us. They really play well at home too.

by Marty_ on Feb 9, 2012 3:00 PM CST up reply actions  

T-Rob has had pretty slow first halves the last 3 games

OU, MU, Baylor

He seems to bounce back fine in the second half, but I wonder if he’s conserving energy or what.

by KSinDC on Feb 9, 2012 2:10 PM CST reply actions  

Nah

it just takes him a half to wear down the defenders in the blocks, he’s like a bruising running back in that sense…

The name of that song played at KC Comets games in the '80's was Giorgio Moroder's "The Chase." Now you know.

by labbadabba on Feb 9, 2012 2:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Bruiser gaining strength

but he also sat for the second quarter of the game (9-ish minute mark) after his second foul. That could be real therapeutic in helping him realize that his teammates are capable when the opponent focuses too much on him.

by dagger108 on Feb 9, 2012 10:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Seems like he comes out trying to do too much on his own.

He needs to get more into the flow of the game before he can switch into beast mode.

by Marty_ on Feb 9, 2012 3:02 PM CST up reply actions  

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