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No. 8

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At halftime, I turned to my friend and said "we're not 12 points better than them over the course of a half."

With 15 minutes left, I turned to my friend and said "we're not 13 points better than them over 15 minutes."

With 8 minutes left, I turned to my friend and said "we're not 10 points better than them over the course of 8 minutes."

With 4 minutes left, I turned to my friend and said "we're not 5 points better than them over the course of 4 minutes."

Whoops, whoops, whoops and whoops. Marcus Denmon missed a 30 foot heave at the end of the shot clock, Thomas Robinson made a layup and the free throw to go with it, and, though it took all 20 minutes, a 12 point lead had been erased. The overtime was the same mixture of feelings of terror, exhilaration and relief. After Missouri didn't even get a shot off on their last possession Allen Fieldhouse exploded in jubilation, even sweeping Bill Self up in the mania. Ten minutes after the game ended, 85% of the students were still in their seats.

And could you blame them? 25 minutes of game time, nearly an hour and a half of real time, after likely needing to win at Oklahoma State and vs. Texas just for a share of the Big 12 title, it was all ours. After the sickening feeling that our biggest rival could leave Allen Fieldhouse as victors in the final meeting, both teams seemed to bend to the building's will, as shots that had fallen all day for missouri suddenly were rimming out and Thomas Robinson had a truly POY worthy second half. The final Border War didn't meet expectations; it blew way passed past (whoopsie) them, and was a fitting way to end the rivalry, perhaps for good.

In statistical terms, it's fair to say that Kansas didn't play terribly well. They allowed missouri to grab 31.4% of their misses, both over their average as well as KU's average allowed, but most shockingly they allowed a 54.6% eFG including Missouri shooting 52.7% from two. But Kansas took their best shot and still won.

Offensively Kansas played far better than the eye test would suggest. Though there were certainly times they appeared discombobulated and sluggish, they scored 1.21 points per possession, a product of posting a 56% eFG and turning it over on only 12.5% of their possessions.

The win of course clinches at least a share of Kansas's 8th straight Big 12 title, but there is still work left to be done. A win in either of their last two games will clinch it outright and then there is the matter of chasing not just a #1 seed but perhaps an Omaha-St. Louis route to the Final Four.

Star-divide

  • After a sluggish first half in which I think most people were kissing the POY award goodbye, Thomas Robinson responded in a big way, scoring 11 points in the final 9 minutes, and blocking the shot that would have won it for missouri in regulation. He finished with 28 points (10-21) and 12 rebounds. He also went 8-9 from the line.
  • After Tyshawn Taylor got fouled late, down 1 and needing both for the win, I thought to myself that there's no one I'd rather have on the line than him. He responded by hitting perhaps the two biggest free throws of his career and solidifying this as one of the better seasons by a KU guard in the last decade. He also had just 1 turnover in a 72 possession game.
  • For how much I have ragged on him this year, Conner Teahan was beyond fantastic. He hit all 4 of his threes, and after a shaky first half taking care of the ball he took care of the ball really well and even guarded incredibly well in the second half. Being a local kid this obviously meant a ton to him and I was beyond overjoyed to see him play so well.
  • Kevin Young, defensive wizard! Young had 4 blocks and 8 rebounds (3 offensive) and provided two huge dunks as well. He wasn't great offensively but played decent defense and provided a lot of energy, and his 28 minutes were probably 18 more than he would have played had Withey been healthy.
  • Elijah Johnson continues his transition into becoming a set up master, dishing out 8 assists, and not turning it over once mind you. He also made 2 of his 5 threes as well as a nice floater in the lane. He's not a superstar, but I think we may be seeing him turn a corner a bit.
  • As you can imagine, this was a see saw game (especially in the 2nd half) and things got pretty crazy, win probability wise. How crazy? This crazy (courtesy of KenPom):

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Def echo the Elijah and Young points

We need Elijah to shoot well from the outside, but its nice to see him developing a well-rounded game as well. If he can make a T2 like leap to consistency, especially next season, it’d be huge.

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Feb 26, 2012 12:01 PM CST reply actions  

Someone responded to the 12 point comment

with needing to be 14, which was corrected to 13, when in fact 12 plus OT is good enough.

by dagger108 on Feb 26, 2012 12:18 PM CST reply actions  

In going to the kenpom site (looking for the chart)

Notice somethings regarding SOS:

1. The strength of the BIG12 has actually brought Mizzoo into the top 100.
1. The strength of the BIG12 has pushed KU past Duke (1 & 2 after non-con)
1. The strength of the BIG10-11-12 appears better than the BIG12 as it has pushed MSU into the top spot.

by dagger108 on Feb 26, 2012 12:30 PM CST reply actions  

144 opp's for TO's

and only 1 for our 2 ballhandlers. That’s amazing!

EJ obviously doesn’t have the same game leadership that TT has, but with the makeup of next year’s team I think he is going to be the perfect fit.

Love the way the Young is learning the game from the masters and continuing to bring the energy. By next year, I think he will be very hard to keep off the floor. Maybe he and Justin can become FT buddies and get a reliable shot for next year. Gotta love the way TRob has turned his FT shooting around during the year. It won a NC a few years ago when we hit 14 of 15 in the last game, but more importantly were 10% better the 2nd half of the year vs. the 1st.

by dagger108 on Feb 26, 2012 12:38 PM CST reply actions  

I think winning

Number 8 has been lost in the euphoria of the game yesterday. It does not seem to be talked about very much, understandably though. To me it’s simply amazing with all the players that have come and gone over the years. It started in 2004 and that seems ages ago.

by jb4 on Feb 26, 2012 1:28 PM CST reply actions  

It was.

I was a sophomore in high school then. I’m in grad school now.

by 2.1 seconds left on Feb 26, 2012 3:08 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree, that is the most impressive thing about it.

It’s not like the Big 12 has been a weak conference during those 8 years. The Big 12 has pretty consistently been rated in the top 3 conferences during that stretch.

Just an amazing accomplishment. Unheard of, in this day and age, really.

by Marty_ on Feb 26, 2012 5:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Regional preference

You say you want STL. I’m an advocate for Phoenix. For one thing, Kansas has an enormous alumni base in Phoenix and LA. But just as importantly, take out fellow Big 12 teams Missouri and Baylor. Also, take out Cuse and UK, as both are 1 seed locks. Here are the other teams seeded 5 or higher on Lunardi’s latest.

OSU
MSU
UNC
Marquette
Florida
Florida St.
Louisville
ND
Georgetown
Michigan
Indiana
Temple
Wisconsin
Wichita State

Would you rather play those teams in St Louis or Phoenix? Easy choice for me.

by hiphopopotamus on Feb 26, 2012 1:31 PM CST reply actions  

easy choice for me too

Phoenix is almost 4 times farther away from Lawrence as St. Louis is. Distance from home is probably the most important factor in NCAA tournament success

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 26, 2012 1:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Ha, my thoughts exactly...

And just to drive this home, here are our last 10 pre-FF games:

Year – Location – Opponent – Result
02 – Madison – Oregon – W
03 – LA – Arizona – W
04 – St Louis – Georgia Tech – L
05 – OKC – Bucknell – L
06 – Detroit – Bradley – L
07 – Anaheim – ucla – L
08 – Detroit – Davidson – W
09 – Indy – Mich St – L
10 – OKC – UNI – L
11 – San Antonio – VCU – L

by hiphopopotamus on Feb 26, 2012 2:13 PM CST up reply actions  

how small of a sample size are we trying to get at here?

we might as well be talking about whether we should avoid playing on Friday/Sunday

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 26, 2012 3:01 PM CST up reply actions  

for the record

just by site only:

Teams 200-500 miles away win 52% of the time. St. Louis is 287 miles according to the ever omniscient Google Maps

Lawrence to Phoenix is 1,170 miles. Teams traveling that far win just 42% of the time.

for more:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/in-tournament-theres-no-place-like-close-to-home/

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 26, 2012 3:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Either way.

Most likely our opponents will have to travel farther.

by gerseph on Feb 26, 2012 3:24 PM CST up reply actions  

Distance is one factor ...

but “home” atmosphere counts more. Sometimes they go together, but this year considering the most likely Regional (Sweet 16) participants, with NONE from farther west, the Phoenix regional would be more “ours” than the closer venue. I especially would love to see UNC, Duke, MSU, OSU adapt to the desert for a few days, and one or two of them will have to or I miss my guess.

My ideal Final Four would be a Big12-ACC face off. How awesome would it be for the NC game to become Border War III ?

RRROOOOCK CHAAAALLLK! JAAAAYYYHAAAAWWWK! KAAAAYYY UUuuuUU!

by KU62 on Feb 26, 2012 2:06 PM CST up reply actions  

We had a big "home" atmosphere the last couple of times we played in Oklahoma City

Didn’t end very well for us. I think who we draw is a much bigger deal than who we play. We’ll have fans everywhere. Still, I’d like for us to be as close to KC as we could be.

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Feb 26, 2012 2:24 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

"How awesome would it be for the NC game to become Border War III ?"

There would be nothing awesome about MU making a final four. IMO anyway.

by MJR on Feb 26, 2012 4:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah I want them out as early as possible

If we lost to them in the Final 4 it’d be gut wrenching. I don’t know if I could handle that.

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Feb 26, 2012 4:10 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm thinking that 8 in a row becomes 9 next year

but them not getting a Big12 ever is even better. Same with the FF. I’d just as soon have them be an 0-fer. I’d much rather have K-State or ISU beat them in the regional.

In fact, I’m really hoping that ISU can make it a 3 game skid for the tiggers this week.

by dagger108 on Feb 26, 2012 6:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Agreed.

Never thought I’d see people saying they’d rather KU play in Phoenix than St. Louis.

by MJR on Feb 26, 2012 3:49 PM CST up reply actions  

We have not played wellin Saint Louis

We nearly suffered a 1-16 upset in 2002, and we lost to a weaker Georgia Tvh team in the regional final in 2005.

But I still think closer is probably better than farther.

The key things are staying out if Kentucky and UNC’s brackets.

by KSinDC on Feb 26, 2012 2:06 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm done writing posts on the iPad

I’m surprised anyone is ever able to respond to me given the gibberish that ends up on the screen.

by KSinDC on Feb 26, 2012 3:13 PM CST up reply actions  

we just can't tell the difference :)

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 26, 2012 3:14 PM CST up reply actions  

does KU have that big a following in Phoenix?

The wife and I are looking at moving down there eventually. It would be really cool if there are a fair number of Jawhawks down that way.

Use the forks

by PenHawk on Feb 26, 2012 2:54 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

My sisters has move a few times for her husband's work

and has commented in amazement at how strong our following is EVERYWHERE. As much as there are likely plenty in PHX, there would be just as many from the left coast that would go just because it was more accessible than eastern and a rare opt to see in person.

by dagger108 on Feb 26, 2012 6:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Notice when the win graph takes a nosedive from our end?

Right after T-Rob’s second foul. So again, Mizzou can’t say dick about the officiating.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Feb 26, 2012 7:40 PM CST reply actions  

Also, yesterday's A good example of why raw plus/minus struggles as a useful stat.

Releford at -9. Of course, he was on the court the last 4 minutes of the first half while Robinson had to sit.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Feb 26, 2012 7:45 PM CST reply actions  

It certainly requires some context

But I bet the plus/minus for T-Rob, Tyshawn and Ratliffe and Phil Pressey were pretty telling.

by KSinDC on Feb 26, 2012 8:47 PM CST up reply actions  

We already know TRob is good though,

it’s the guys like Releford that raw +/- is meant to tease out their “x factor” value.

by sax solo on Feb 26, 2012 8:51 PM CST up reply actions  

we also know the other three are too

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 26, 2012 9:08 PM CST up reply actions  

I think we know more about how valuable Pressey and Ratliffe are thanks to +/-

Pressey especially has skills that don’t necessarily show up elsewhere on the stat sheet.

And even though we know how good Robinson and TT are, I still think that there’s plenty they do that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet. We knew Collison was great in college, but his value in the pros is almost only evident in +/-. We probably could have better understood his value to KU in looking at +/- while he was here.

by KSinDC on Feb 26, 2012 9:26 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm confused

Ricardo Ratliffe leads the nation in eFG. I think that’s all we need to know.

Similarly, you can see Pressey is a good passer, good FT shooter and poor shooter from the field. You really can’t do +/- unless you’re evaluating 5 man units as a whole. Especially in college because of the talent disparity between a lot of the teams.

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 26, 2012 10:03 PM CST up reply actions  

What do we know of Ratliffe on defense?

And I actually thought Pressey’s importance to the team was more than i’d have realized just be looking at his assist stats. Their offense ceased to function with him out of the game.

+/- isn’t close to perfect, but it’s one of the only things that gives us any info about defense and it’s about the only stat that tells us about offense beyond assists (a subjective stat) and scoring. In complex offenses like KU and MU, that’s a lot of grund that the stat sheet isn’t covering.

by KSinDC on Feb 26, 2012 11:16 PM CST up reply actions  

that's why people are doing defensive charting now

because +/- doesn’t really cover it. If someone keeps 5 man unit data I’d love to look at it, but I have less than no use for individual data.

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 26, 2012 11:35 PM CST up reply actions  

How do you feel about plus/minus in the pros?

This article is what got me thinking about all of this:


In terms of individual statistics, Collison doesn’t impress. Because he uses so few possessions on offense and rarely blocks shots, Collison rates worse than replacement in WARP and little better in PER. Basketball-Reference.com’s Win Shares provide a superior estimate of Collison’s value but still put him barely better than average.
Meanwhile, Collison’s net plus-minus of +11.1 last season ranked eighth in the league, per BasketballValue.com. Every player ahead of him was an All-Star. The year before, the Thunder was 9.4 points better per 100 possessions with Collison on the floor.
In this case, the issue isn’t one of reliability. Collison’s individual stats are accurate to the extent they describe his skills. However, they are incomplete. Like Shane Battier, another plus-minus All-Star, Collison excels in the areas of the game that aren’t tracked in the box score. He’s a terrific post and position defender, draws charges by the bushel and sets good screens on offense. In this case, watching Collison play explains the discrepancy. We can also support that observation using supplementary statistics, like charges (according to Hoopdata.com, Collison led the league by drawing 57 of them in 2009-10), Synergy metrics and information from StatsCube.

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1987

by KSinDC on Feb 26, 2012 11:58 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

this part
We can also support that observation using supplementary statistics, like charges (according to Hoopdata.com, Collison led the league by drawing 57 of them in 2009-10), Synergy metrics and information from StatsCube.

means a hell of a lot more to me. But yes I like it a bit more in the pros than in college.

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 27, 2012 8:58 AM CST up reply actions  

Yes, I'd obviously prefer advanced defensive data

But, in the absence of it, I like to have plus/minus, which at least gives me some indications of what to look for.

Is anybody doing advanced defensive charting for the Jayhawks this season? Luke Winn had some stuff on various teams, but KU was not one that I saw.

by KSinDC on Feb 27, 2012 11:08 AM CST up reply actions  

I haven't seen any.

I did a few games last year to check what (David Hess?) others were doing and see if we were close. It’s a pain in the ass.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Feb 27, 2012 11:15 AM CST up reply actions  

I remember he was doing it last year

I never really got a chance to immerse myself in it to see what I thought of it. Doing the exercise yourself is a good idea to 1) see how subjective it really is; and 2) see how much the subjectiity matters and how much it cancels out over the course of a game/season.

by KSinDC on Feb 27, 2012 11:18 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm reminded of a couple of Futurama quotes that seem appropriate for yesterday

“It was always our plan to trail at the half, thus deepening [Missouri’s] eventual humiliation.”

and

“You are all fools of the highest caliber!”

by Scott_Pilgrim on Feb 26, 2012 7:59 PM CST reply actions  

Good Ole Jack Harry and Frank Boal

Having a big ole blame the ref fest on KSHB. Its actually funny.

'Bill Self for SEC Federal Reserve Chairman!'

by Carl C on Feb 26, 2012 10:39 PM CST reply actions  

Jack Harry

is a joke. The only reason he has a job is because he says “shocking” things. I can’t stand him and really hope I never run into him in person. I have refused to watch their news broadcast for 12 years in fear that if I hear his voice I’ll break my TV.

by gerseph on Feb 26, 2012 11:58 PM CST up reply actions  

he's the head guy of my camping group

so he does come to all the games, just not in full garb haha

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 27, 2012 8:58 AM CST up reply actions  

someone else made it apparently

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Feb 27, 2012 9:03 AM CST up reply actions  

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