I hinted in Marty's very fine FanPost that I might try to compile some data showing how KU's NCAA tournament losses stack up to the other teams that lead the nation in NCAA tournament wins since Bill Self came to KU. A couple of notes on the data: I only counted NCAA losses. If a team won the national championship, that did not affect their score. Similarly, if a team missed the tournament in a given year (or years, coughUCLAcoughUCONNcoughFLORIDAcough), that fact did not affect their score.
As a recap, here is the data for KU over the same span:
2004: KU 4; GT 3 (1)
2005: KU 3; Bucknell 14 (-11)
2006: KU 4; Bradley 13 (-9)
2007: KU 1; UCLA 2 (-1)
2008: National Champs
2009: KU 3; Mich. St. 2 (1)
2010: KU 1; UNI 9 (-8)
2011: KU 1; VCU 11 (-10)
Total loss-seed disparity: -5.28 per loss
Follows the data I compiled:
UConn
2004: NCAA Title
2005: 2 (10): (-8)
2006: 1 (11): (-10)
2007: DNP
2008: 4 (13): (-9)
2009: 1 (2): (-1)
2010: DNP
2011: NCAA Title
UConn Total: -28 (4): -7
UNC
2004: 6 (3): (+3)
2005: NCAA Title
2006: 3 (11): (-8)
2007: 1 (2): (-1)
2008: 1 (1): (0)
2009: NCAA Title
2010: DNP
2011: 2 (4): (-2)
UNC Total: -8 (5): -1.6
Duke
2004: 1 (2): (-1)
2005: 1 (5): (-4)
2006: 1 (4): (-3)
2007: 6 (11): (-5)
2008: 2 (7): (-5)
2009: 2 (3): (-1)
2010: NCAA Title
2011: 1 (5): (-4)
Duke Total: -23 (7): -3.3
Mich. St.
2004: MSU 7; Nevada 10 (-3)
2005: 5 (1): (+4)
2006: 6 (11): (-5)
2007: 9 (1): (+8)
2008: 5 (1): (+4)
2009: 2 (1): (+1)
2010: 5 (5): (0)
2011: 10 (7): (+3)
Mich. St. Total: 12 (8): +1.5
Kentucky
2004: UK 1; UAB 9 (-8)
2005: 2 (5) (-3)
2006: 8 (1): (+7)
2007: 8 (1): (+7)
2008: 11 (6): (+5)
2009: DNP
2010: 1 (2): (-1)
2011: 4 (3): (-1)
Kentucky Total: +6 (7): +.85
Florida
2004: 5 (12): (-7)
2005: 4 (5) (-1)
2006: NCAA Title
2007: NCAA Title
2008: DNP
2009: DNP
2010: 10 (7): (+3)
2011: 2 (8): (-6)
Florida Total: -11 (4): -2.75
Texas
2004: 3 (7): (-4)
2005: 8 (9): (-1)
2006: 2 (4): (-2)
2007: 4 (5): (-1)
2008: 2 (1): (+1)
2009: 7 (2): (-5)
2010: 8 (9): (-1)
2011: 4 (5): (-1)
Texas Total: -14 (8): -1.75
UCLA
2004: DNP
2005: 11 (7): (+4)
2006: 2 (3): (-1)
2007: 2 (1): (+1)
2008: 1 (1): (0)
2009: 6 (3): (+3)
2010: DNP
2011: 7 (2): (+5)
UCLA Total: +12 (6): +2
A couple of conclusions: UConn's score is slightly skewed by the fact that they only had 4 NCAA losses over the past 8 years (2 titles, 2 DNPs), but still significantly higher than KU's. That said, UConn is the only school that even approaches KU's loss-seed disparity. Of course KU is largely a victim of its own success. It's never been seeded worse than a 4 seed since 2001 (let that sink in here for a bit), so, like Duke, for instance, KU's losses are much more likely to be to a worse seed. A team like Michigan St., on the other hand, is seldom better than a 5 seed, so its tournament success has largely come at the expense of better-seeded teams, and further, its losses are usually to higher seeds.
So what's the point, exactly? I'm not sure. I'm not going to sit here and say that HCBS can't coach in the big game (we all know that's simply not true), but his teams do tend to (dare I say the word?) choke when they're heavily expected to win. Not every time, obviously, but it's happened more frequently than any of us would like to admit or remember.
Anyway, these are the numbers. Discuss!
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