Kansas Basketball: A (Semi) Statistical Recap of Kansas State

by fetch9 on Jan 5, 2012 9:00 AM CST in Kansas Jayhawk Basketball 2011-12

"looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue"

Of course it's the same old story. Truth usually is the same old story

-Margaret Thatcher

It got a bit shaky in the second half, but when the dust settled Kansas had won by yet another comfortably large margin over their I-70 opponents. Kansas has now won 43 of the last 46 meetings in the series, and it puts Kansas State in the position of possibly starting 0-3 in conference play (though I expect them to be favored against Baylor).

I had predicted that this game would be a rock fight, and boy was it: Kansas struggled to score 1.05 points per possession, relying a lot on second chance points, and Kansas State scored only .77 points per trip. The Wildcats don't exactly light it up offensively, but put up just a 36% eFG, which is an absolute disaster no matter where you go, much less Allen Fieldhouse. But what really got Frank Martin was the rebounding: K State really relies on crashing the boards, grabbing 40.6% of their misses, which ranks 9th in the country. I think they probably tried to get back on defense and slow the game up a bit, but they still only grabbed 27.9% of their misses. Even more impressive is that Kansas, who isn't a great offensive rebounding team, pulled down 57.6% of their misses. (though to be fair Kansas State is actually a horrible defensive rebounding team, currently ranking 235th. So take those numbers with a block of salt.)

Speaking of offense, let's all spend a moment giving thanks to the Flying Spaghetti Monster that Kansas grabbed so many offensive rebounds. They had a 50% eFG, but turned it over on 31.2% of their possessions. And that was with Kansas State, who normally pressures the perimeter a ton, having to play off a bit because a player of the year candidate mans the post for Kansas. Without that, it could have gotten ugly.

Kansas now has three games that should be (crosses fingers) wins before hosting Baylor on January 16th in a game that could be an early swing game in the Big 12 title race.

College Basketball Stats

Thomas Robinson had a great game (more on him later) but the best player on the floor in my opinion was Travis Releford. Releford had 16 points, shooting 4-7 from two, 2-4 from three and 2-2 from the line. He also had a career high 11 rebounds. He also played stellar defense on Rodney McGruder, who needed 14 shots to score his 15 points. I said the Releford-McGruder matchup would be the key to the game and boy was it.

At this point I'm just going to stop being surprised by Robinson. "Only" 15 points, but they all came within the flow of the offense, and he grabbed 14 rebounds (20% offensive rebounding rate, not bad.). I do find it a bit odd, however, that he only went to the line twice given how much Kansas State fouls. I'd have to re-watch to determine whether it was due to Kansas not getting him the ball in good spots, him not being agressive, or refs not calling fouls, so that will stay a mystery.

Conner Teahan had only 6 points, but they both came on huge momentum shifting threes in the second half after Kansas State had cut it to three. I'm skeptical as to how much momentum in and of itself helps to win games, but there's no doubt that Kansas was in a major funk offensively and they needed points, and Teahan gave them 6 big ones.

I sense that the guard duties are shifting a bit: Tyshawn Taylor has become much more of a scorer this year, taking 13 shots last night, and Elijah Johnson is shifting to more of a facilitator role. Johnson had 5 assists on the night and while he had a poor game offensively he managed to grab 8 (!) rebounds and have 3 steals. As for Tyshawn, he made a couple plays, especially the drive late in the half, that just made me laugh at how good they were, and then some that made me laugh for opposite reasons. One of the reasons I like us vs. both Baylor and Missouri is Tyshawn should be able to get into the lane at will and make things happen, now we just have to hope they're good things.

Man I love Jeff Withey. 8 points, shooting 3-4 from the floor and making both his free throws (quick aside: he needs to be on the floor late in games both for his defense and the fact that he quietly is the best free throw shooter on the team) and he pitched in 9 rebounds and, oh yeah, 6 blocks. He only played 24 minutes, which I think has a lot to do with him not being strong enough (or able to stay out of trouble) to handle playing more minutes, but I am beyond excited to see him next year when he presumably gets stronger and Kansas has more big men so they can use his minutes more efficiently.

Naadir Tharpe checked in at the 13:41 mark of the first half (and checked out for good at the 3:34 mark after a hilariously bad shot). Tharpe didn't check in until the 12:17 mark of the first half against North Dakota, meaning that Bill Self of course considers the Sioux to be better than the Wildcats. Can't say I disagree.

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Comments

Withey and Releford

If both can develop some consistency and continue to improve, this team will be able to make a little noise. I think, at this point, we know mostly what we are getting from TRob, Taylor and Johnson. I think Releford, Withey, and to a lesser extent the Young/Wesley combo will decide how our season goes. Last night was a good first step.

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Jan 5, 2012 9:40 AM CST reply actions

Agreed

and I thought Teahan showed some positive signs, too.

by jayhawk1996 on Jan 5, 2012 9:46 AM CST up reply actions

I still think EJ could be giving a lot more offense.

THEO!

by wrigleyrocker12 on Jan 5, 2012 3:03 PM CST up reply actions

I agree, but I'm kind of done waiting for it

Seems like he is going to chuck 4-6 threes a game. Some games he hits em, some games he doesn’t…

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Jan 5, 2012 3:16 PM CST up reply actions

Until you said that, I had no idea he averages 6 3PT attempts per game

That’s too many. He needs to be driving the basket more.

by KSinDC on Jan 5, 2012 3:58 PM CST up reply actions

I don't know if he handles the ball well enough to do that.

We’d love for him to do it but I question whether it’s possible at times with him.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 5, 2012 4:15 PM CST up reply actions

That's a good point

I’d settle for him making more cuts without the ball. Give him a chance to catch it with a chance to do something nearer the basket or be in good rebounding position. We could use his size on the boards.

by KSinDC on Jan 5, 2012 4:18 PM CST up reply actions

Oh I think he does...

We don’t need him to drive as often as Tyshawn, but he has to start getting into the paint. If nothing else, it should give him more space around the arc.

by hiphopopotamus on Jan 6, 2012 8:53 AM CST up reply actions

Spoiler: they won't

If both can develop some consistency and continue to improve

by sax solo on Jan 5, 2012 4:39 PM CST up reply actions

Negative Nancy.

But you’re right.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 5, 2012 4:45 PM CST up reply actions

A man can dream, sax solo.

A man…can dream…..

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Jan 5, 2012 8:37 PM CST up reply actions

Don't know that I'd call Tharpe's shot hilariously bad.

It wasn’t a good shot at the time it came but he was open and it almost went down. If that shot happens to fall, all of the sudden he’s “a freshman figuring the game”.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 5, 2012 10:18 AM CST reply actions

Also, am I the only one that doesn't see the embedded charts?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 5, 2012 10:18 AM CST reply actions

I haven't been able to see the charts in the last few

And the bullet points are always center-aligned instead of left aligned. Seems like SBNation’s article software could use an upgrade.

by KSinDC on Jan 5, 2012 10:23 AM CST up reply actions

Statsheets code is a little wonky at times.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 5, 2012 4:15 PM CST up reply actions

I didn't see them either.

I just assumed fetch was drunk.

by sax solo on Jan 5, 2012 4:41 PM CST up reply actions

Great write up

Good job of covering all the contributors.

I’m going to try to go back an re-watch the game to see how KSU’s defense changed and how we attacked it. I felt like several of our turnovers resulted from a deliberate effort to spread the floor on offense to take K-State out of its help defense and that that succeeded. If so, it’s probably a price I’m willing to pay: more isolation opportunities for Robinson is worth a few turnovers.

by KSinDC on Jan 5, 2012 10:27 AM CST reply actions

I did think the team did a fairly poor job of getting Robinson the ball in the post throughout the night.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 5, 2012 10:59 AM CST reply actions

Agreed

but I also didn’t see TRob posting up very well. He looked pretty gassed most of the night actually. I really wish we could get him down 10% or so in the minutes because when he’s energized he’s unstoppable.

by bigreed on Jan 5, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions

Our entry passes still need a lot of work

The guards are too slow to get them off and some of them are bizarrely off target.

But I agree with bigreed that I though T-Rob didn’t show much interest in posting up last night. Maybe because we were spreading the floor or maybe he was just tired but he regularly was calling for the ball 10 or 12 feet from the basket, which led to all of those dribble drives that make me so nervous.

by KSinDC on Jan 5, 2012 11:25 AM CST up reply actions

Exactly

I think part of it was tired but part of it is the inevitable trying to do what you haven’t yet proven to everyone you can do. TRob has an NBA future and the drives from 10/12/further as well as the mid/long range shots are to me pretty obvious attempts to show scouts that he’s more than a back-to-the-basket big man. I don’t blame him for doing it so much as Self for letting him. Unless both of them figured KSU wasn’t a game that he needed to stay within himself, which is certainly arguable.

by bigreed on Jan 5, 2012 12:04 PM CST up reply actions

I think part of it was also frustration that he wasn't getting the ball.

I noticed a few times that he was visibly frustrated about the ball never being on his side OR when it was on his side, a look never went his way. Probably a combination of both.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 5, 2012 12:21 PM CST up reply actions

I'd have to go back and look

but didn’t see many examples of when he should be upset. Our guards may well be gun-shy on the passing front but I didn’t notice it.

by bigreed on Jan 5, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions

It seemed OK to start off, then he wasn't being used enough, especially the 2nd half

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 5, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions

especially

given that K-State wasn’t double-teaming him. I don’t think we took advantage of that they way we could have

I discovered at a very early age that if I talked long enough, I could make people believe whatever I wanted them to. So, either I'm God, or truth is relative. Either way, booyah.

by PenHawk on Jan 5, 2012 7:15 PM CST up reply actions

Good Stuff

One nitpick on the TRob part

all came within the flow of the offense

I can remember at least 2 shots where he pulled up for jumpers that didn’t come through the offense at all. He made them both, so I’m not complaining, but it did seem a little odd.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 5, 2012 12:26 PM CST reply actions

Agreed

Those drives to the basket and pull-up jumpers might have been OK with Bill Self, but they weren’t within the flow of the offense as we’ve run it this year. T-Rob’s shots within the flow of the offense should come off of entry passes to the low post or off of him rolling to the basket after setting a high pick.

by KSinDC on Jan 5, 2012 12:29 PM CST up reply actions

They should, but this year's team can't run the offense that smoothly.

This year, any play that relies on one dude passing the ball accurately to another dude who must catch the ball well is a play with a good chance of resulting in a TO.

I don’t like the jump shots either, but for this year’s team I think they are a less-worse option. Still not to be trusted or relied upon, but they can keep the defense guessing and that’s a really good thing.

And a pull-up jumper isn’t so bad in terms of the shooter getting his own rebound. Usually he is facing the basket and the defender is half beat or not already in a great block out position. Fadeaway type jumpers as the result of a bad post up situation are worse, IMHO. I hate those and we certainly do plenty of them as a result of our usual “smooth” post feeds that the other team has scouted the hell out of.

by sax solo on Jan 5, 2012 5:06 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Great F-ing line

This year, any play that relies on one dude passing the ball accurately to another dude who must catch the ball well is a play with a good chance of resulting in a TO.

The poster formerly known as DCJayhawk0208

by PDXJayhawk on Jan 5, 2012 7:32 PM CST up reply actions

Though if he's making it from 15-16 ft, that should definitely be part of the offense.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 5, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions

It still worries me that, with him taking that shot, there's almost no chance for an offensive rebound

It feels like a much lower percentage option than the rest of our offense.

by KSinDC on Jan 5, 2012 1:54 PM CST up reply actions

I agree.

Every time he takes a shot out there I scream NO because I keep thinking who is going to get the rebound…

What? A girl who likes sports...INCONCEIVABLE!

by ladyjay78 on Jan 5, 2012 1:56 PM CST up reply actions

Though when we're turning it over on 30% of the possessions, shoot it while you got it.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 5, 2012 2:20 PM CST up reply actions

Our offensive efficiency is still 112.4

I think other options give us a better job of sustaining that.

by KSinDC on Jan 5, 2012 2:25 PM CST up reply actions

That rebounding bar is pretty crazy.

I didn’t notice bfore that KSU was bad defensive rebounding team. Doesn’t really fit their high-effort and scrappy profile.

I suppose if your strategy is to hack and dare the refs to call them all, that would result in lots of fouls (“bad” FTRate) and a good 2P% defense, with the missed shots not being easily rebounded, and so it would screw up your DR%. Not sure if I buy that but it might explain the stats.

by sax solo on Jan 5, 2012 10:57 PM CST reply actions