Mmmmmm Steak: Kansas-Texas Preview
by fetch9 on Jan 20, 2012 8:00 AM CST
in Kansas Jayhawk Basketball 2011-12
Email
PrintAlthough the Frank Erwin Center isn't a place Kansas has had much success, there (statistically, at least) isn't much reason to believe that Kansas will be upset on Saturday.
According to KenPom, Kansas has a 69% chance of winning the game tomorrow, and here's why:
For starters, the Longhorn defense has been abysmal lately. They're 38th in adjusted defense this season, but in Big 12 play they are allowing 1.03 points per possession, which is sixth in the league. But before you get too confident, a lot of that is due to the Longhorns allowing teams to shoot 42% from three. Kansas has gotten better from beyond the arc in Big 12 play, but they're still at just 35.5% for the season.
Texas's two point defense is a semi-different, and very interesting, story. For the season as a whole they rank 11th, allowing teams to shoot just 41.3% from two, but in Big 12 play they are allowing teams to shoot over 49%, which is 7th in just the conference. THe Horns haven't played the world's greatest offenses in Big 12 play (other than Missouri), so it could be that they boosted their numbers based on a poor non-conference schedule, or that the defensive swoon they went through at the end of last year is starting early this season.
offense (values are for conference play only)
defense (ditto)
The Longhorns leading scorer is J'Covan Brown, who is also leading the conference in scoring at 19.222 points per game. He's also second in the league (to Thomas Robinson, of course) in points per 40 at 22.9. He's doing it reasonably efficiently as well, shooting 47.5% from two and 38% from three. He's also drawing almost 5 fouls per 40, which is an ability shared by multiple Longhorns, chief of whom is Freshman guard Myck Kabongo.
Kabongo is part of the Canada to Texas pipeline (I would think that someone from outside the US would want to play college basketball in a state that doesn't hate immigrants, but what do I know) and although there has been a bit of an adjustment period, he has proven to be a valuable commodity in Austin. He's not a great shooter yet, with an eFG of just 47% (he also shoots just 30% from three, but unlike Elijah Johnson has quit taking so many and has learned how to contribute in other ways), but Kabongo has an impressive 36.8% assist rate and draws 6.4 fouls per 40 minutes. His FT rate of 91.5 is tops in the country as well, and could be a major problem for Kansas if Robinson or Withey gets in foul trouble early.
Other than Kabongo and Brown though, I don't think much can hurt Kansas. Texas shoots just 33.6% from three on the year, and are at just 44% from two in Big 12 play. Stranger things have happened than a team making a few more threes than they "should" in a home game in one of the biggest games on their slate, but I would be surprised if they made enough to matter.
Texas will probably be in desperation mode, as they need a big win for their NCAA tournament profile (yes, it's that time of year already) but I don't think it will be enough. KenPom has Kansas winning by five, and while Kansas seemingly has a history in gagging the game after a big win I think they double that margin of victory fairly easily.
Your discussion question of the day is this: with Missouri leaving the Big 12, who is our new rival? The obvious answer is seemingly Kansas State, but I'm picking Texas, who is the last team to win in Allen Fieldhouse and has been the opponent in some great games recently. They've also been consistently the second best team in the league, so it makes sense that they'd be our main rival.
35 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Texas would be a good hoops rival
But the majority of their fans start paying attention to basketball the day after the bowl game and stop paying attention the day before spring practice.
So I go with K-State.
I bet the new rival becomes West Virginia
Pretty good program in both sports, and probably the only one that can consistently compete with us year in and year out.
Texas and Kansas have split their last 8 regular season match ups
And like fetch said, we broke your 69-game home winning streak. I’m pretty sure we fit the bill of a team that “consistently compete with you year in and year out.”
I’m not so optimistic about this year, though. We’re just too young. Here’s to hoping for another memorable game, though.
76-37-5. Now GTFO.
I guess I just think that West Virginia would be a bigger rival
Because I see them more consistently playing for championships in conference than Texas.
Texas had a good run for a couple years, but Barnes’ teams always seem to fall off.
Hopefully I’m wrong, as I’d love to see Texas step in instead of having to build the rivalry completely from the ground up. However, I just can’t see us ever coming close to being Texas’ main rival, and I don’t want to become the K-State of the Red River Rivalry.
by misterbrain on Jan 20, 2012 11:55 AM CST up reply actions
Also, please note I'm mainly talking about Basketball.
I don’t see KU competing in football for a while (again, I hope I’m wrong about that too).
by misterbrain on Jan 20, 2012 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
Short memory
Everyone’s stuck on the last two years, when Texas overachieved early, then fell off in February. But even last year we finished 13-3, 2nd in the conference, and beat KU on the road, and since 2002-03, no team has more consistently challenged Kansas for the Big 12 title than Texas. The Jayhawks have 121 conference wins over that span, while Texas is second with 103, and bear in mind that for most of that stretch the Big 12 South was the stronger division. Over that span Texas finished, 2nd, 2nd, 5th, T-1st, 3rd, T-1st, 5th, 6th, and 2nd.
In other words, Texas has consistently been playing for conference championships. And we’ve been a hell of a lot better over the last decade than West Virginia, thank you very much.
Kansas-Texas in basketball has developed into one of the most exciting on-court rivalries in basketball. An even split over our last 8 regular season games, and countless epic battles in the conference tourney, which y’all always manage to win. Y’all are the best, hands down. But we’ve been your only true challenger. Embrace the rivalry, my friend. It’s been terrific.
76-37-5. Now GTFO.
by Peter Bean on Jan 20, 2012 12:36 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Yep...
I’m Texas way before WVU. WVU and K-State are probably going to have a bit of bad blood. KU – K-State should grow if the Wildcats can continue to improve. But Texas v KU has had the most potential of late.
Questions, Comments? email me at denverjhawk@hotmail.com
I still give a slight edge to WVU since 2005 or so
Been to a Final Four – Barnes needs to get back there again to prove his worth, IMO.
Again, I think regular season success is more indicative of coaching
Too many variables go into being successful in the tourney – matchups and luck being the primary ones. Although Texas has collapsed down the stretch the last two years (moreso 2 years ago than last year), they still have been a very successful program with a lot of wins and really good players.
by 2.1 seconds left on Jan 20, 2012 1:27 PM CST up reply actions
Great
So why do I get blank stares from Texas fans when I start talking hoops? All they seem to care about is football. Have lived in Texas for nearly 15 years.
Slow down na
KU also struggled against against Okie State for a few years, Missouri, etc. No question Texas has by far been the biggest challenge to KU over the past decade, and there have been some memorable games.
However, KU can’t have much of a rivalry with anyone until its league superiority is knocked off. Texas has threatened it, but when a game has ever really mattered (Big 12 tourny, the Durant game to decide the league crown, the regular season final in 2009 to decide the league crown) Kansas has ALWAYS won.
Even split over the last 8 regular season games doesn’t mean much to me. I think more of KU beating Texas in every Big 12 tournament final and those two regular season games which decided the league title. And EVERY time Texas beat KU, KU turned around and beat Texas in the tournament when the stakes were higher.
Point being, I see Texas as the number two program in the league. But to be a big exciting rivalry, Texas has (and God willing they don’t) to beat KU in a game that matters. So far it really hasn’t happened. Through my crimson and blue glasses, I see KU and then everyone else, who Texas leads.
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Jan 20, 2012 1:33 PM CST up reply actions
You said it was a premier rivalry, I disagreed and gave reasons
Then you argued that Texas has constantly challenged KU, which I whole heartily agreed with, but argued that the “epic battles” don’t seem as epic in hindsight, because Kansas always won the games that truly mattered or really had hype.
So care to elaborate on the “reading comprehension fail” or are you just trying to be a jackass because I offered a different take on your viewpoint. On a KU blog. That I write for.
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Jan 20, 2012 6:58 PM CST up reply actions
Sorry
I should have just expressed my point rather than be a jackass. Point taken, and I apologize.
I was just confused by your point, which seemed to be exactly an echo of my comment — namely, that Kansas is number one hands down, and Texas is the only team that’s really provided any challenge to that. And the reference to “epic battles” means, well, just that — battles that were hotly contested. You don’t need hindsight to determine whether the battle was fierce and competitive; we could just watch the games up through the last couple of minutes and, without knowing who won, determine whether they were epic battles.
With all due respect, you just sound like you’re being smug, rather than engaging my points, which were plenty deferential to Kansas’ superiority. “Well, we won the Big 12 tournament games, so, uh, whatever. They weren’t epic battles.”
That’s just bullshit, and you know it. C’mon man. Isn’t being the best enough? People rightly smack down Texas fans for this kind of needless arrogance in football. I’ll apologize for being a jackass with a short comment, but I’ll stand by the underlying sentiment: you echoed what I already said, served with a side of hindsight bias and arrogance.
76-37-5. Now GTFO.
I think drawing the parallel between Texas football and Kansas basketball fans is a good one
I think RCT is better than a lot of places, but even here, the arrogance bothers me sometimes.
If you want to bolster your claim, you could point out that the idea that KU has won every game that matters is just factually false. In 2006, we went to Austin tied with Texas for the conference lead at 11-2 with 3 games left. Texas annihilated us 80-55 and took over sole possession of first place. The only reason KU won a share of the title that year was because Texas A&M won an incredibly ugly game over Texas the next week.
I did love our guys getting revenge for that loss in the American Airlines Center two weeks later, but I’ll never forget that loss in Austin.
We also beat Texas in the big 12 title game that year
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Jan 21, 2012 12:36 AM CST up reply actions
That's what my last sentence referred to
But you said Kansas beat Texas in the regular season games that decided the title and I think it’s clear that the 2006 game in Austin belongs in that group.
Ok fine, there is one
But the 2007 game had a ton more hype (and is one of the greatest regular season wins at the phog in recent years) and the 2009 game was the last game of the year.
So fine, Texas won one with something on the line. But KU still has the other two regular season ones I mentioned and the tourny titles. Add in the fact that Texas peed down its leg a week later so KU could tie (in 2006) and I think that dimishes that game a bit too.
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Jan 21, 2012 10:27 AM CST up reply actions
i didn't think it was that bad
then again i am used to trading barbs of hey you’re a fuckhead with people so what do i know
I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter
Hey Fetch
Your a fuckhead great guy
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Jan 21, 2012 10:28 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I am being smug. Its Kansas basketball, and smug is how I roll with it.
I admitted in my original comment there have been some amazing games. My point was, especially to a KU fan, we’ll certainly recognize Texas as the chief threat to KU. Its just that when I look back at everything, I see KU beating Texas in every big game, every game that mattered to me. Games with hardware on the line.
Like I said, I agree with alot of your comment. My point was Texas needed to win some of the tournament titles or claim an outright regular season or two to make it a true back and forth rivalry. Otherwise, Texas is slightly ahead of other south teams that have given us absolute fits on their home floor. Hell, for years we couldn’t beat Tech in Lubbock…
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Jan 21, 2012 12:40 AM CST up reply actions
Unquestionably...
The team gets up for KSU and Missouri because they’re supposed to, but in the minds of the players and the coaches, texas is the rival. And it’s been that way pretty much throughout Bill’s tenure.
by hiphopopotamus on Jan 20, 2012 1:34 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah this.
Self has been clear on stating that they view Texas as their primary competitor, and you can be sure that has much more impact on who they team views as a rival than anything else.
by 2.1 seconds left on Jan 20, 2012 1:42 PM CST up reply actions
It's hard to argue that KU and Texas are close and Texas is a hell of a lot better than West Virginia
Just eyeballing the kenpom rankings:
Sch now '11 '10 '09 '08 '07 '06 '05 '04 '03
KU 2 3 2 10 1 3 6 12 13 1
UT 25 5 18 23 9 21 2 26 14 10
WV 20 21 8 9 19 32 16 30 81 125
It looks like UT and WV are pretty evenly matched since 2005, and each of them has one year finishing ahead of KU but both are a tier behind overall.
I don't dislike Texas
I can’t think of Texas as a rival. It’s true, I’ve felt most “threatened” by Texas. But come March, I want Texas to represent the Big 12 and do well. I can’t say that about Mizzou or Kstate.
that's a good point
I don’t dislike them either, other than when we play them. I like most of their fans that I’ve interacted with as well.
I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter
I don't see this
Texas has been the better program over the last 10 years, and almost always has the talent to match-up with KU. Given that we now play them twice every year, the opportunity is there for it to become a true rivalry, especially since Texas has actually shown the ability to beat us recently, unlike K-State and Missouri. West Virginia essentially is Kansas State without the added factor of being in the same state as us, so I don’t see them becoming a major rival.
by 2.1 seconds left on Jan 20, 2012 12:39 PM CST up reply actions
west virginia has actually been a really good program recently
I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter
Yeah they have been
But in terms of playing style and the guys they recruit, they are almost identical to K-State. I don’t like extrapolating too much from one game, but anyone that saw that WVU-KSU game earlier this year saw exactly what I’m talking about. It was like watching an intersquad scrimmage where everyone is coached to do the same kinds of things.
And so far as on-the-court success, WVU slightly edges KSU recently, but they really have been pretty similar with WVU getting all the way to the Final Four a few years back while K-State made it to the Elite Eight the same year.
by 2.1 seconds left on Jan 20, 2012 1:25 PM CST up reply actions
The streak had an extenuating circumstance,
and moreover I don’t think any Kansas fan really cares that much about the streak or that it was UT who broke it. I think it even goes the other way—better UT than a real rival. Also, cherry picking the conference games hides the fact that KU with Self is 8-5 against Texas. Self’s first season, 2004, was the only season KU did not win a game against Texas. OTOH Texas has had 4 seasons where they didn’t beat KU.
Record aside, I think it’s more like UT competes (in the sense of fielding a roughly equally good team, not just head-to-head competition) with KU every OTHER year or so.
And like I said, other schools have given Self fits.
Self has several losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State as well, and really struggled with Oklahoma early in his career. Texas is definitely second, but to me, its more like
1)Kansas
2) Texas
3) Other teams
4) The crappy teams
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Jan 20, 2012 7:00 PM CST up reply actions
I'm fine with that
Not a big fan of Huggins or Holgorsen
by jayhawk1996 on Jan 20, 2012 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
That picture cracks me up.
I was thinking the same thing before I had even read the cutline.
What? A girl who likes sports...INCONCEIVABLE!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
