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A (semi) Statistical Recap of Iowa State

First off, let's get to the real reason Kansas was able to win yesterday:

Mu_medium

We could spend all day trying to decipher that last comment, but instead let's applaud a Missouri fan (and probably graduate, assuming he could find his way to the school once) for being able to string multiple English (or semi English) words together. We'll work on having them make actual sense next.

Less funny than Kansas winning on pure referee elixir is the start of yesterday's game: Kansas came out as cold as Iowa State was hot, and trailed by at least 9 at two separate times. Though they fought back to go into the half down three, Iowa State again stretched that lead out (after the game HCBS remarked "My halftime speech was good - we went in down three and came out down twelve"). Kansas actually didn't take the lead for good until there was 10:24 remaining, and the game was quite a bit closer than the final score indicates (obviously) with the nine point margin largely coming via some fouls at the end.

Kansas was pretty bad offensively in this one: though they faced a good Cyclones offense, they allowed .93 points per possession, over a tenth more than they had allowed in Big 12 play so far. It still was far lower than Iowa State's 1.08 PPP in Big 12 play so far however. If you're searching for a main culprit, it came on the glass where Iowa State grabbed 34.8% of its misses. That's not a terrible amount for Kansas to give up, but it's a 10% higher rate than the Cyclones had rebounded during Big 12 play so far, so that is a lot of extra points to grab.

Offensively Kansas scored 1.05 points per trip, about a tenth lower than their current Big 12 rate. They had a 50% eFG, but struggled mightily at the line, shooting 50% from there as well. The one major positive to take away from this game is how well the Jayhawks took care of the ball: Kansas, if you can believe it, turned it over on just 9% of their possessions. Iowa State struggles to turn people over, but I figured if one team could do it it would be Kansas

This game does raise a couple of interesting questions: did Kansas get caught looking ahead to the Baylor game, or are they in big trouble on Monday? Also, with how well the Cyclones came out yesterday and Hilton Magic, is it time to go into the return trip expecting a loss or will this close call wake up the team and cause them to play a focused 40 minutes?

Star-divide

  • Good Tyshawn showed up, to say the least, with a career high 28 points, 6 assists and 4 steals. Taylor went an uncharacteristic 5-9 from the line, or else he could have had a 30 point night. He shot efficiently though, with a 54.7% eFG.
  • Your eFG leader yesterday came from a bit of an unlikely source, as Elijah Johnson put up a 61.1% mark. I guess that's what happens when you make 3 of 8 threes. Johnson had 5 assists as well, making this another game where statistically he looked good, but watching the game he seems lost or something.
  • Jeff Withey, offensive superstar: Withey had 13 points and 11 rebounds on 6-10 shooting, and even made a jumper from just inside the arc. He also had 7 blocks to increase his league leading total.
  • Conner Tehan......sigh.
  • Kevin Young was a +25 in 16 minutes of playing time. Single game +/- (and +/- in general) is pretty meaningless, but I found that awesome anyways.
  • These days even when Travis Releford "struggles" he has a good game: he had 7 points and 7 rebounds, with 3 assists and 0 turnovers. It would have been nice to see a bit more of the patented Travis Releford defense though, but let's not nitpick.
Poll
Player of the game?
Tyshawn
147 votes
Robinson
0 votes
Withey
34 votes
I should remember to do these poll questions more often
6 votes

187 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 33 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Didn't they do a study a couple years ago

of how many fouls Big 12 teams were called for on the road vs. at home, and KU’s home court advantage was middle of the pack? I’m pretty sure I read about it here at RCT. Does anyone know the one I’m talking about?

Use the forks

by PenHawk on Jan 15, 2012 9:53 AM CST reply actions  

That's interesting too

But I think this is what I was thinking of. It was actually just from last year, but pretty telling. KU had more fouls called on them than their opponents in Allen Fieldhouse.

Use the forks

by PenHawk on Jan 15, 2012 10:39 AM CST up reply actions  

I remember that one now.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 15, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions  

They ask about the difference H vs. A

but seem to operate on the assumption that the outcome of a home game is equivalent to an away game. Maybe it is on my mind a bit more after just seeing an ESPN video regarding the challenges of winning on the road. The end of our game also shows that the rate of fouling changes depending on how close a game is – With ISU down just a few, they are going to commit fouls to extend the game.

I’m not thinking clearly enough to put those 2 things into a definitive arguement, but know that it changes the variables in a causal correlation.

by dagger108 on Jan 15, 2012 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

it does

but the fact that an opposing team is likely to be fouling Kansas at the end of a game at Allen Fieldhouse, combined with KU getting called for more fouls than the opposition, is enough to put the “Kansas gets all the calls in Lawrence” cries to rest

Use the forks

by PenHawk on Jan 15, 2012 4:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Not sure I'm being entirely logical

But I thought yesterday was the perfect warm-up for Baylor. We beat a good team at home and had to come back from 12 points in the second half to do so. If nothing else, we forged some toughness. But more than that, I always get nervous when we blow someone out like we did against Texas Tech. We always seem to come out flat after that, like we did yesterday. It’s probably just confirmation bias, but whatever. If we had handled Iowa State easily, I’d be a lot more nervous about Baylor. As it is, I think we’ll come out strong.

by jayhawk3r on Jan 15, 2012 10:46 AM CST reply actions  

I think we were coming out strong no matter what against Baylor

Top 3 team in our house.

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Jan 15, 2012 10:48 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah our guys don't ever seem to have let-downs in big games

The only one I can remember is the Tennessee game in Knoxville, and that was because they got half their team suspended the week before and we thought we’d walk all over them.

by 2.1 seconds left on Jan 15, 2012 12:44 PM CST up reply actions  

fixed.

Yeah our guys don’t ever seem to have let-downs in big games***during the regular season.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 16, 2012 6:21 AM CST up reply actions  

Who was D'd up against Allen?

Travis?

In general, their perimeter in general was colder/contested? in the 2nd vs. 1st. Some of that is wantto by each player, but it would seem that some has to do with Withey dominating the paint from a shot perspective. It would be nice to seem him dominate the more physical (GRAB the R) parts.

by dagger108 on Jan 15, 2012 1:36 PM CST reply actions  

I really wanted to give Withey the vote but Tyshawn's game was outstanding.

Withey continues to boggle my mind. He’s like Jekyll & Hyde. Some games he seems completely uninspired and then he throws in a dominant performance like yesterday. I loved it when he dove for the loose ball right in front of Self. 7 feet of white dude flopping onto the court is always fun to watch.

by De-Freeze on Jan 15, 2012 1:39 PM CST reply actions  

If that's your thing,

Duke games are often available in most areas of the country.

RRROOOOCK CHAAAALLLK! JAAAAYYYHAAAAWWWK! KAAAAYYY UUuuuUU!

by KU62 on Jan 15, 2012 9:07 PM CST up reply actions  

Anyone catch this quote from Chris Allen?
’I honestly can say that we did what we had to do to win," Allen said. "I don’t want to make any excuses, but you watched the game like we all watched the game. It’s our fault we let the refs keep them in the game and had a couple of (bad) calls that kind of made us sink down a little bit.

"But we kept picking it back up and like I said, we’ve got to play the refs out of the game in that situation because we are up 10 for most of the game."

http://www.gocyclones.com/news.php?ID=4781

by MJR on Jan 15, 2012 3:04 PM CST reply actions  

Jesus Christ

can no one we beat just accept that they just aren’t as good as us? That’s worse than the Wildcat fans at BOTC claiming they were still the better team right after we finished dismantling them.

Use the forks

by PenHawk on Jan 15, 2012 4:08 PM CST up reply actions  

well

Considering his maturity problems at Michigan State I’m not surprised

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Jan 15, 2012 4:22 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions  

between him and White

Hoiberg’s putting together a fine group of young men up there

Use the forks

by PenHawk on Jan 15, 2012 4:26 PM CST up reply actions  

He rolled the dice to win

And they are winning more games and a better team. But even he knew the price he was paying to get more talent.

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Jan 15, 2012 8:41 PM CST up reply actions  

I was calculating the Warden +/- and was a bit surprised

(The last two columns: ‘ws’ is Warden’s +/- score, and the last column is an efficiency, sort of Warden’s +/- per possession.)

The point that stood out to me is that KU has 6 guys with good scores in the last column, while ISU only had 2 or 3. Chris Allen may feel good about getting 17 points, but doing it on 15 FGA with 4 TO and 4 fouls isn’t worth it, by these numbers.

by sax solo on Jan 15, 2012 8:39 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

Anyway I don't like our chances against Baylor.

It’s a pretty quick turnaround from an ugly win. I’m not sure this team can put together enough good minutes to win tough games anyway.

I have a feeling a better passing team with more time to prepare could cut Baylor’s D to pieces, so I’m interested to see how Mizzou will do.

by sax solo on Jan 15, 2012 8:53 PM CST reply actions  

looks like it was removed

I suppose it doesn’t look great to have authors/editors from rival SBN sites squabbling with each other.

Use the forks

by PenHawk on Jan 16, 2012 2:43 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd say more a Missouri fan acting like a Missouri fan

And the rest of us roasting him for being a hypocrite, but whatever.

Don’t forget, Bill C is the man and no one can question him or challenge him ever, even if he comes on here and acts like a jerk to one of the authors. He writes lots of articles that have numbers and math in them.

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Jan 16, 2012 3:43 PM CST up reply actions  

What makes me smile

Is that a guy like you, who has gained some recognition for his outstanding work in football analysis, is so insecure that he still picks fights on KU blogs.

Use the forks

by PenHawk on Jan 16, 2012 9:36 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Maybe he likes to pick fights he knows he's going to win...

"When among evil companions, try to fit in." - Wild Bill Donovan

Rocky Balboa once told me, "Nothing is real if you don't believe in who you are."

by Kpz1234 on Jan 16, 2012 10:48 PM CST up reply actions  

hahahahahahahaha

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

You should do stand up

Use the forks

by PenHawk on Jan 17, 2012 7:38 PM CST up reply actions  

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