A Closer Look Josh Selby's NBA Draft Decision

LAWRENCE KS - DECEMBER 18: Josh Selby #32 of the Kansas Jayhawks waves as he runs off the court following the game against the USC Trojans on December 18 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence Kansas. The Jayhawks defeated the Trojans with a final score of 70-68. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Josh Selby made a bad decision and you cannot convince me otherwise.  In every walk of life, you want to avoid selling low.  Well, Josh is selling himself at the lowest point of his career. 

In terms of the decision, there were a few ways this could go.  Josh Selby could choose the following:

1. Choose to sell himself at his current valuation, which is the lowest of his career.

In this scenario, he has a chance to get drafted in the first round and guarantee himself some nice money.  If this happens, even if he flames out because he wasn't ready, things have worked out decently well, particularly for a kid that didn't grow up with much.

That doesn't mean it was a good decision.  Especially because, a just as likely outcome is that he gets drafted in the second round, has no guarantee (with a small chance that he doesn't make a team), has trouble developing much, and is able to do very little work towards a nice second contract.

2. Return to Kansas and show (what he and we believe is) his true form. 

Depending on the results, this would likely put himself in position to sell himself at either his highest valuation ever, or at the very least, a level much higher than his current price.  He would, invariably, get drafted in the first round and possibly the lottery. Not only has he sold himself at a much better initial price, but he's also put himself in a better long-term position.

3. Return to Kansas, continue to struggle, or even get injured. 

In this scenario, he obviously is even more exposed and less valuable than right now. And that's certainly a possibility and a risk not to be taken for granted.  But you don't get return without taking risk.  And if you've seen him play, you know the likelihood of 2 is much greater than 3.

The choices are:

A) Sell himself at his lowest ever valuation and hope for the best; or

B) Bet on himself to improve his standing and his value.  If it's me, I bet on myself every time, particularly when I've reached a point where I don't have all that much to lose.  In March of 2009, I didn't know if the S&P 500 would go lower or not.  What I did know was that I wasn't going to be selling anything at the point.  That's where Josh Selby is about to sell himself.

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