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What Has Been The Difference For The Kansas Jayhawks?

AHHHHH....now I get it!  Thanks Warden.

We're going to start with this:

Team_snapshot_medium

The blue bar is the team average for plus/minus in the first four games of conference play (plus Michigan) compared to the average since the Texas loss.  In the last five games, the Jayhawks have doubled their previous average.  A few explanations could be made about why the team has taken off and I'm not going to get into those.  The question we're going to tackle is what has happened on the court to cause such a dramatic jump in production for the team. 

Diagnosis after the jump.

Star-divide

First up, averages for each player from the first five games and the last five of this 10 game stretch in graph form.

Plusminus_change_medium

When that many players are trending up, things are going to look good.  The individual numbers are below with special attention given to the four who have had the biggest positive change.

First 5Last 5 Big12 GamesChange
Thomas Robinson 0.4 11.25 10.85
Josh Selby -2.8 7.67 10.47
Brady Morningstar 3.2 9.6 6.4
Elijah Johnson -2.6 2.4 5
Markieff Morris 8.4 13 4.6
Mario Little 1.5 5 3.5
Tyshawn Taylor 2.6 4.6 2
Travis Releford 0 1.75 1.75
Marcus Morris 14.4 10.2 -4.2
Tyrel Reed 8.4 3.2 -5.2

 

  • Thomas Robinson's increased production is almost entirely a result of just being on the court more.  In the first part of this stretch, he played 9 minutes a game and in the last five he's played 18 per game.  His rebounds per 40 minutes have actually decreased a little bit.  He's shooting better (70% to 50%) and turning it over half as often.  This last stretch has also been his only four games where he's been able to be around consistently after the month he's had.  Hopefully he can keep channeling whatever power he is and keep it going.
  • Check out Josh Selby coming in with the second biggest change.  The question of whether KU is better without Selby has popped up since Monday, the answer depends on which Selby we're talking about.  The one that struggled at the start of conference play averaging 7.6 points a game and shooting 28% OR the one that has averaged 14.3 points while shooting 56%.  If it was just his shooting, I might be tempted to write it off as a mini-hot streak like he had when he started.  However, his rebounding numbers (1.4 to 3.3), assist numbers (1.8 to 4.33), and his turnovers (3 to 2.3) have all improved as well.  Looks like he might have turned the corner before the injury.
  • And the guy causing people to even ask the question about Selby is Brady.  In the first part of this stretch, he was playing 23 minutes a game and averaging 3.4 points a game and shooting 37% from the field.  Over the last five games, he's scoring 11.4 points per game and shooting 58% from the field (carried heavily by going 12 for 21 on three pointers).  His assists have almost doubled in the last five games (2.8 to 4.8), likely due to him being able to make a shot now and people have to guard him.  I'll be the first to admit that when he's not shooting well, I'm a "hater".  But the one thing he hasn't done in conference play is turn the ball over, that's very valuable on a team that has a couple other guards that are a little more turnover prone.  Even though he scares the hell out of me every time he drives baseline, he has came out smelling like a rose lately.
  • The fourth biggest jump surprised me.  EJ hasn't stuck out in my mind as playing great lately and I don't think he really has, this was more a 'dead cat bounce'.  It's tough to get worse from where he was.  The encouraging thing about his jump is that it's mainly due to assists (though 6 against KSU makes that look inflated), rebounds (1 in the previous five games and 8 in the last five), and fouls.  In 40 minutes during the first stretch, he had 8 fouls.  In the last five games, he's played 56 minutes and only been whistled for 2 fouls.
  • Quick hitters on the rest: Releford had a +8 against Missouri in his first taste of solid action back.  Markieff has been on another tear, going for +7, +20, +14, +7, and +17. 
  • Don't let Marcus's numbers fool you here, he's gone down over the last five games but it's not like he has struggled at all.  +7, +14, +6, +11, +13

The numbers here show that even though this current pace is likely unsustainable, nobody is really playing that out of their minds and carrying the team.  This many guys doing this many things well would seem like a great recipe for March success. 

*Plus/Minus= Points + Rebounds + Steals + Assists + Blocks - FGA - FT Missed- Fouls- Turnovers

Comment 20 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Injuries

Selby’s (& Travis’) +/- is just the average of 2 games?
Tyrel is now playing hurt.

Does playing 3 bigs more lately impact the #’s? I say that only b/c the +/- IMO is biased towards bigs.

by dagger108 on Feb 11, 2011 9:33 AM CST reply actions  

Releford's been back for 4 games but his minute totals are 1,9,2, and 16.

Selby has 3 games in the “last 5” stretch (CU, Tech, and KSU).

As for the bigs, that does improve them a bit. But not as much as almost everyone playing better improves the numbers.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Feb 11, 2011 10:00 AM CST up reply actions  

1 & 2 minutes

is not what I’d call back, but technically speaking you are correct. Wasn’t sure about Selby.

by dagger108 on Feb 12, 2011 1:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Right, Releford was at +8 against Mizzou

so his average was really hurt from the other games.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Feb 12, 2011 2:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Brady finally getting over his shooting yips

from last year’s free throw debacle has been a huge factor. When he makes shots it really pressures the other teams defenses. I haven’t been his biggest fan either, but his ability to consistently hit open jumpers amps ups his value.

by hunter s. royal on Feb 11, 2011 1:00 PM CST reply actions  

Amusing stat:

There’s an article called Who Are the Best Decision Makers in the Big Ten over on the Iowa State D-Team Michigan State SBNation blog. It uses this metric to try to evaluate “decision making”.

I’m not sure it’s really measuring that very well, but I thought I’d run the numbers for Kansas. It turns out that one KU player has a higher “OD%” than any player in the Big Ten: that player is Brady Morningstar. In the Big 12, though, he comes in a distant second to Balbay.

Here’s the top 15 of the Big 12, counting only guys who’ve played 350 minutes total so far.

WP40 is Warden’s /- Score per 40 minutes where Markieff and Marcus lead the Big 12 comfortably. PR is just a toy stat, “production ratio”, points over maximum points (2*FGA3PA+FTA).

by sax solo on Feb 11, 2011 2:22 PM CST reply actions  

I put this here because

it made me decide that Brady may have been playing better than I thought—-even when he couldn’t make a shot.

by sax solo on Feb 11, 2011 2:24 PM CST up reply actions  

You know what they say about the "laugh test"

Taylor being 7th may mean this doesn’t pass it.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Feb 11, 2011 2:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah I don't think it's a useful stat

but it was amusing that Brady tops the whole Big Ten in it.

by sax solo on Feb 11, 2011 2:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Uh...fanposts are your friend.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Feb 11, 2011 2:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Interesting...

I am one of those that would have argued that Morningstar was making very substantial contributions even when he was not shooting well. And decision making was one of the things I thought he did well. I still think he is the most savy & cagey player we have and does more with the limited athletic gifts he has than anyone else on the team. But those kind of things are really hard to measure numerically and I doubt this does a great job of it either. I arrived at those conclusions purely with the eye test.

Marty

by MartyR on Feb 11, 2011 10:32 PM CST up reply actions  

I arrived at different conclusions by the eye test.

I saw defenders blatantly not playing defense on him. I saw quite a few turnovers, not THAT many steals and assists, and no “lock down” defense. I saw "drives’ to the rim where he could have had a layup but he wasn’t even looking at the basket at all and all defenders had to do was guard the pass. I saw lots of bad entry passes.

Maybe I was too harsh, and my eye isn’t developed enough. He did a good thing causing the USC guard to step out of bounds; that was a game-saving defensive play.

It’s more likely that this metric is kind to either “facilitator” players who aren’t scorers, or very efficient scorers.

by sax solo on Feb 11, 2011 11:22 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I know, so did nearly everyone on here.

Or at least it seemed that way to me.

But now the target is Taylor. For some reason it seems there always has to be one.

Marty

by MartyR on Feb 11, 2011 11:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Easy

We’ve improved due to our guard play. It was weaker than a 4 year old girl in the early stretch (missed three after missed three, turnovers, etc) and has sky rocketed of late.

The Morri have continued to run train, but MorningReed are hitting threes, and Little and Releford have also provided a spark. Thats the difference IMHO.

Would like to see the D improve though, our offense is going to stall here and there and we’ll need to shut a team down.

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Feb 11, 2011 11:11 PM CST reply actions  

True but the numbers from conference play haven't been nearly as good.

Allowing a 48% eFG and just over a point per possession.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Feb 12, 2011 5:59 AM CST up reply actions  

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