Kansas Basketball Up Just One Spot To No. 12

by Owen on Dec 12, 2011 1:16 PM CST in Kansas Jayhawk Basketball 2010-11

Beat the no. 2 team in the country and you earn some respect right? Wrong, not when Jared Sullinger is on the bench. Despite Kansas controlling the game from pretty much the opening tip to the closing buzzer, the Jayhawk gained only one spot in both the Coaches and AP poll this week.

That's right folks, Kansas is number 12, and honestly that's probably about right. I don't see any reason to really catapult Kansas up the charts for this one win, but I sometimes wonder what would have happened had a Duke, North Carolina or Kentucky done as much? Would they gain a mere one spot in the polls?

The annoyance is compounded by the fact that Ohio State didn't move at all. The Buckeyes are still number two while Kentucky losing on a last second buzzer beater to a now top 20 Indiana team moves the Wildcats to number three. If I'm voting I think I give more credit to Kentucky than Ohio State. The Buckeyes had to scrape and claw to get within six of Kansas on multiple occasions and while they were never out of it, it sure didn't feel like they were ever in it.

Ohio State with Jared Sullinger was a 2.5 point favorite over Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. Take him away and Kansas wins by eleven. I realize he's a load and he makes a difference down low, but once again I hate the notion that Kansas should somehow apologize for winning this game.

Ohio State is a very good team across the board. Kansas played and lost to Duke and Kentucky already this season. I guess I tend to believe that Kansas was due in this one and I would have bet on the Jayhawks with or without Sullinger in the game. I wouldn't necessarily say that again if these two teams meet in a rematch, but on Saturday the Jayhawks were the better team.

Just a little more ammo for Bill Self as he prepares this team for what promises to be a tough Big 12 conference race.

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Comments

I could not care less about the polls

I think #12 sounds about right, and I think that there are plenty of times that our poll position gets boosted because we’re Kansas.

Having said all of that, the polls are just stupid and, thankfully they make no difference because college basketball is set up in a way that’s infinitely smarter than college football. The only rankings worth paying attention to anyway are the computer rankings. In the kenpom rankings, we moved from 12 (after LBSU) to 6. In Sagarin, we’re #8 (#7 in the more-accurate Sagarin Predictor). The computers are doing a far better job of adjusting for difficulty of schedule. Kenpom has us with the 16th toughest schedule so far, and Sagarin has us with the 20th toughest.

by KSinDC on Dec 12, 2011 1:30 PM CST reply actions

I agree that we may be a little underanked

But that is OK. It is nice to fly a little below the radar. Also just think how much it will crush Mizzou when we beat them even though the are ranked higher than us.

I always drink the Kool-Aid

by bt01 on Dec 12, 2011 2:03 PM CST up reply actions

I haven't looked at those polls but since you have...

I have to ask who has played a tougher schedule than us? Maybe a couple of teams, but I have a hard time believing there are 15 or 19 teams that have played a better schedule than against teams ranked, 2,3,7,16 and a team in the others receiving votes out of 9 games.

by FLJhawk on Dec 12, 2011 2:09 PM CST up reply actions

Also...

Baylor sure has played through a tough schedule to get to 7-0 and ranked #6…

by FLJhawk on Dec 12, 2011 2:12 PM CST up reply actions

Only one of the undefeateds has played a tough schedule

All rankings and schedule strength from KenPom:
’#5 Syracuse, 10-0, SOS #244
’#7 Marquette, 9-0, SOS #166
’#8 Missouri, 9-0, SOS #321
’#10 Louisville, 9-0, SOS #280
’#13 Indiana, 9-0, SOS #248
’#16 Xavier, 8-0, SOS #98
’#19 Baylor, 7-0, SOS #340
’#41 Illinois, 10-0, SOS #318
’#56 Murray State, 10-0, SOS #38

I’m guessing the reason that Murray State is so low is that they were low in the initial ratings, but they should move up as those fall out of the formula. Sagarin, which doesn’t use initial ratings, has Murray State at #11.

by KSinDC on Dec 12, 2011 2:35 PM CST up reply actions

Baylor just struck me as an...

oh my goodness that is a bad schedule when I checked them out. At least most of the other teams that I looked at had played someone that wasn’t a directional school for the deaf and blind.

Thanks for the info on both posts. I guess I don’t always think about the teams coming in to play all of the guarantee games.

by FLJhawk on Dec 12, 2011 3:00 PM CST up reply actions

Baylor has a couple good wins

@Northwestern and San Diego State are both good wins.

by KSinDC on Dec 12, 2011 3:26 PM CST up reply actions

They set up their schedule that way

Because they knew they would be without Perry Jones for the first six games, which is a pretty valid reason to shuffle your schedule if you can

by 2.1 seconds left on Dec 12, 2011 5:15 PM CST up reply actions

i think initial ratings are the way to go in terms of a future predictor though

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by fetch9 on Dec 12, 2011 3:19 PM CST up reply actions

I'm surprised that our schedule strength is as high as it is

You’ve got mid-majors like Long Beach that are scheduling ridiculously tough to try to boost their chances at an at-large bid and then you’ve got all the small programs like Towson that are playing a dozen guarantee games at the big boys’ arenas in order to fund their athletic department. If our strength of schedule is this high now, it’ll be near the very top after a tough conference schedule.

Since you asked, the top 5 strength of schedules, according to kenpom:
Coppin St
Jackson St
LBSU
Portland
Mississippi Valley St

Duke has the #6 schedule so far, which I think largely reflects the fact that they had Michigan instead of UCLA in the semifinal in Maui.

by KSinDC on Dec 12, 2011 2:26 PM CST up reply actions

Our SOS isn't as high as a lot of low- or mid-majors

Because we haven’t played near as many road games (read: 0) as they have. Neutral site games are not counted as having the same degree of difficulty as road games (nor should they), so our SOS is “dragged down” by the number of neutral-site and home games that we have played.

by 2.1 seconds left on Dec 12, 2011 5:17 PM CST up reply actions

I bet the selection committee thinks and talks about polls.

Whereas from what I’ve heard they probably might not even know what Sagarin and Pomeroy are.

Keep in mind Dan Beebe was on the selection committee.

by sax solo on Dec 12, 2011 3:01 PM CST up reply actions

i don't think they pay much attention to polls to be honest

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Dec 12, 2011 3:21 PM CST up reply actions

I don't think they pay much attention period ;)

I know that’s not really true, but they do seem to make some true brain dead decisions every year. I’m just glad I’m not a fan of the Mid-Majors that really have to struggle to get attention to make the tourney every year. KU is pretty much guaranteed a spot as long as they don’t completely crash and burn.

by MichiganJayHawk on Dec 12, 2011 3:26 PM CST up reply actions

It'd be like a fish not being influenced by water.

Poll talk is pervasive all season long. Not sure how they could avoid it, really.

by sax solo on Dec 12, 2011 3:37 PM CST up reply actions

Keep in mind that the brackets are annonced on a Sunday after a jam-packed week of basketball

Even if the committee members really wanted to weigh the polls heavily (and I don’t think they do), the newest poll is 7 days old at that point and was voted on before the major conference tournaments even begin. The polls are never more out of date than they are on Selection Sunday. I really don’t think it makes a difference except maybe for a big story like a small conference team (maybe Harvard or Murray State this year) being ranked very highly because they kept winning. And I can live with those sorts of teams getting a boost. I can’t imagine it makes a difference for a major conference team, especially one of the blue bloods.

by KSinDC on Dec 12, 2011 3:58 PM CST up reply actions

We're both just asserting stuff we don't know,

and I hate reiterating, but I think I need to clarify what I was saying.

I’m not saying they look at printouts of the last poll, (though they _might__ since the NCAA sends committee members updates throughout the season with different ranking information), but that the constant talk about rankings and who is #1 and who knocked off a ranked team etc. etc. throughout the season will color their non-RPI thoughts. Even if they do watch like 3 games all season on TV, the poll ranking numbers around going to be right there on the screen. So I bet they talk about poll rankings when they are talking freely about teams. It’s already in their heads.

by sax solo on Dec 12, 2011 4:16 PM CST up reply actions

The NCAA sends out the polls to committee members during the season?

You’re right that these are hypotheses that can’t be tested, but my memory from reading the simulations that they do with the writers each year is that even the writers who go in there determined to rely on computer rankings in making their case find themselves overwhelmed by the amount of RPI-based information presented and the requirements for relying on some of it in making their decisions.

It would be interesting to find the teams that the polls liked a lot more than the RPI and compare them. The best example I can think of from last year is Utah State. #23 in the final polls, but not getting much love from the RPI. The committee gave them an 11 seed.

by KSinDC on Dec 12, 2011 5:06 PM CST up reply actions

Everything I've read says that the selection committee is drowning in RPI data

I don’t think they have much sense at all on where the teams are ranked in the polls.

I think the danger of bad info for the selection committee comes almost entirely from teams where they saw one game that may not have been representative of that team’s season. Well, that plus the fact that the RPI isn’t a great computer ranking system.

by KSinDC on Dec 12, 2011 3:23 PM CST up reply actions

and they do the last 10 games bullshit

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by fetch9 on Dec 12, 2011 3:25 PM CST up reply actions

I thought that was dropped last year.

by KSinDC on Dec 12, 2011 3:26 PM CST up reply actions

oh really? that would be good news

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by fetch9 on Dec 12, 2011 3:32 PM CST up reply actions

Yep.

I thought I’d heard they actually still are presented with the last 12 games on their screens but it’s no longer a specific thing they all stop and talk about. Can’t find a link for that though.

by sax solo on Dec 12, 2011 3:50 PM CST up reply actions

Yep was supposed to link here.

by sax solo on Dec 12, 2011 3:50 PM CST up reply actions

12 seems right to me too

Not sure the 11 teams ahead of could all beat us head-to-head, but I don’t feel like we’re a top 10 team at this point. Could we be by the end of the year? Sure. This is maybe already Self’s best coaching job btw.

by bigreed on Dec 12, 2011 1:33 PM CST reply actions

I'm choosing to read OSU's stay at #2 as a compliment.

“Lose to KU at the phog? Pfff, you can’t be expected to win.”

by jayhawk3r on Dec 12, 2011 2:03 PM CST reply actions 4 recs

that's actually how i read it too

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Dec 12, 2011 2:07 PM CST up reply actions

Everyone is making good points about us being ranked at #12...

…but the way the pollsters came to that conclusion is still bull.

Oh my dear lord...this is RETARDED boss...

by tequilaprophet on Dec 12, 2011 2:04 PM CST reply actions

Why?

I mean, winning at home as a good team is what you are supposed to do. There is nothing tougher than winning on the road in college basketball, which is why teams shouldn’t be dropped much after close road losses and shouldn’t move up much after close home wins.

by 2.1 seconds left on Dec 12, 2011 5:20 PM CST up reply actions