50 in 50 is a feature here at RCT counting down until the Jayhawks kick off the 2011 basketball season on November first. Got an idea for something you'd like to see featured here? tweet @rockchalktalk or @fetch9 or email me at fetch9 at gmail dot com.
When I did my post about first year coaches in the Big 12, I mentioned CBB Reference's formula for how well coaches resist the pull of parity. So I thought I would compare Bill Self to a couple other coaches who seem to be mentioned as among the nation's elite.
Quick disclaimer: In each of the coaches I took out their first year at each school, as it didn't seem to reward or punish someone based on what his predecessor did.
Also, a mini glossary: XWP% = expected winning percentage. WAE = Wins Above Expected
First, let's give HCBS his own table:
If you don't want to click to enlarge, HCBS is 80 wins over what he should have been expected to win, or just shy of 6 per season. This is good, but how good? Let's find out.
|Coach||Years||WAE||WAE/Year||Seasons w/ negative WAE|
To put the above table into layman's terms: HCBS is a wizard. If he keeps up his current pace, by the time he is retired he could end up the best coach in the history of the game in terms of WAE. Obviously in order to be considered one of the greats he'll have to win a couple more national titles, but let's all pause and consider how lucky we are to have HCBS in charge of our program. Coach K is thought of as one of the best coaches ever, and in one season out of every five he had a year of regression. Tom Izzo is generally thought to be the best coach currently, and he too has had a season of regression in one season our of five. And as for Ol' Roy? Once out of every four. (not to mention he missed the NCAA Tournament one year)
But HCBS? Goose egg. I've said it before and I'll say it again: there are some in game coaching decisions of his I disagree with, but there is a grand total of zero human beings I'd rather have in charge of the basketball program at the University of Kansas.