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Plus/Minus Update: Post-Texas

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As move on from this game and look at the bigger picture heading forward, the plus/minus shows what we already knew about the team but also might highlight those flaws a little more than we realized previously.  We know the team is dependent on Marcus and Markieff Morris.  We know Josh Selby has struggled since his first 5 games.  Hopefully everyone has also realized just how valuable Tyrel Reed has been.  Speaking of Reed, I heard yesterday that this was the first home game Tyrel Reed has lost in his basketball career.  His Burlington team never lost in middle school and lost one game at home in high school, a game he didn't play.  If true, interesting. 

As for the Texas game, this was about as poor of a "team" performance as it gets.  The Jayhawks had four guys end up with a positive number, four who recorded zeros, and two in the negative.  For a team, that's just bad but it shouldn't surprise those who watched the game and are familiar with the formula I use.  Missed shots and fouls are bad, Kansas had a lot of each.  Texas on the other hand had six guys in the positive and four at +9 or better. 

Click the jump for the KU/UT chart and a look at just how reliant the Jayhawks have become on the Morri.

Star-divide

MIN FGAFtMissREB AST STL BLK TO PF PTSPlus/Minus
Tyrel Reed 34 10 0 6 0 2 0 2 1 17 12
Brady Morningstar 26 5 0 1 3 1 1 1 3 8 5
Jeff Withey 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 2
Marcus Morris 35 17 3 7 3 1 1 3 3 16 2
Mario Little 13 4 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 0
Markieff Morris 23 7 4 5 0 0 0 1 3 10 0
Thomas Robinson 8 3 0 5 0 0 0 0 4 2 0
Tyshawn Taylor 33 8 0 2 6 0 0 0 4 4 0
Elijah Johnson 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -3
Josh Selby 21 9 0 1 1 1 0 2 4 4 -8
Totals   64 7 33 13 5 2 12 23 63 10
                       
J'Covan Brown 29 10 2 3 1 1 0 2 2 23 12
Cory Joseph 31 8 1 9 0 2 1 2 1 11 11
Jordan Hamilton 31 13 0 9 2 0 2 4 3 17 10
Tristan Thompson 38 7 2 6 0 1 5 3 3 12 9
Dogus Balbay 17 2 1 3 3 2 0 1 3 5 6
Alexis Wangmene 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jai Lucas 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Matt Hill 18 0 0 4 0 1 0 1 5 0 -1
Gary Johnson 32 8 0 5 0 0 1 2 4 6 -2
Totals   48 6 40 6 7 9 15 21 74 46

 

Nothing groundbreaking here but I wanted to share these numbers before looking at the team's last few games.  One thing I think we all know is that when Reed and Morningstar are the team leaders in the plus/minus, Kansas had a rough day.  In the game thread, KGRTC asked if Releford would have made a difference in this game and my immediate response was no.  However, looking at this I have definitely changed my mind.  It wouldn't have taken much to be better than Johnson and Selby, throw in Releford's defense and I think he could have altered the outcome. 


Team_plusminus_medium

Looking at the team's production since the Michigan game highlights the team's need for another player.  For a team that prided itself on depth early in the year, it has disappeared the last five games.  The Jayhawks have been carried by the Morri and Reed.  That's not a huge problem, lots of teams would love to have three guys like that to count on.  But when nobody else is coming close to consistency, it creates a problem when there's an off game by one of the leaders. 

  • Before getting into some of the worries, I want to make sure to mention Tyrel Reed.  He has become a very important piece to this team and much more than a spot up shooter.  The only guard to be in the positive for each of the last five games and is averaging a very strong +8.4, tied with Kieff behind Marcus at +14.4
  • The inconsistency is why we get Morningstar for 25+ minutes in three of the last five games.  He hasn't been playing outstanding, he's just taken care of the ball for the most part and let the other guys have at it.
  • As fetch said in the game review, Josh Selby just isn't a very good player right now.  His ceiling is sky high but until his shot starts falling and he starts taking better care of the ball, he's not helping.  An easy way for him to get going again would be to find a way to get to the foul line.  In the last two games, he hasn't shot a free throw.  For a guy with his speed and ability to get to the basket, that is unacceptable.  Quit driving and avoiding contact, go to the rack hard and get to the line. 
  • Staying on the guards that just aren't cutting it, Elijah Johnson has struggled mightily.  He gets in the game and either commits a foul or a turnover and is back out.  Focus or lack of confidence could be a part when he is in and out so much but it's on him to fix it. 
  • The Baylor game really shocked me when I figured the numbers here.  For a game that we all loved, it was heavily dependent on the Morri and Reed.  Again, that's not all bad but it highlights the lack of balance going forward. 

In the end, two things are keeping my hopes up for this being an elite team as we get into conference play and March.  First, Thomas Robinson has had one good game over the last five.  The guy has been through more in the last month than most people face in years, so in no way am I calling him out.  Just saying that as time goes on, he might become a little more stable as a contributor.  Second, Travis Releford being out with injury has limited the guards available.  He has shown a strong outside shot and good defense, once he joins the team and gets back in the flow everything is going to be better.  Until then, be ready for a few more bumps.

Comment 18 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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I had the same initial thoughts about Releford

My feeling was that the second half breakdown was an offensive problem, and Releford is a defensive specialist, and thus wouldn’t have made the difference. Then I looked at the box score.

On the postgame wrap-up Saturday, I posted the stats Texas had from the 1, 2, and 3 spots. I don’t remember what they were exactly, but let’s say their guards had a hell of a game. This is also reflected by your +/- system, where by my calculation their guards were a collective +39. Seeing that makes me believe this game was more of a defensive problem than everyone seems to think. With Releford arguably being our top perimeter defender, he could very well have been the difference Saturday. I really hope he plays tomorrow, because we all know CU’s guards are more than capable of going off as well.

by PenguinHawk on Jan 24, 2011 9:05 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

shot selection, too

I also like that, while Releford does shoot the three when he’s open, his offense is also predicated on driving to the lane. I felt like shot selection was a huge problem for our guards in the second half (and in the AZ game…once shots stop falling, our guards seem to head toward the harder shots, not the easier ones). Releford hasn’t seemed to take the bait, so to speak, and he always hustles both ways after a change of possession. Just being the 1st one down the floor on either end would have been a huge help for us.

by PDXJayhawk on Jan 24, 2011 10:51 AM CST up reply actions  

Lets not forget the toll on this team

Robinson found out at 11pm his mom had passed away. Taylor said later he got about “one hour of sleep” the night before.

Could that have anything to do with an epic second half colapse? I think its possible.

A healthy Releford will help us a lot, as will the team being better prepared.

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Jan 24, 2011 12:09 PM CST reply actions  

I think it is a big part of what happened

the crowd really carried them through the first couple TV timeouts, and then they just collapsed. I’m not saying it’s why we lost, but I am at least semi-willing to throw out this result.

Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog (new and improved!)
College Hockey!

by fetch9 on Jan 24, 2011 12:18 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not

Look, players have had the game of their lives in situations of extreme adversity. Jordan scored 40+ in a playoff game when he was puking on the sidelines during TV timeouts. Adrenaline takes over in these games, and in any single afternoon, not getting enough sleep is not going to make the difference between a big win or ugly loss.

I know you said you’re not blaming the loss on this, so I’m not necessarily directing this at you, Fetch. But a lot of the fanbase seems to think it’s so incredible that we lost a game, they’re chalking it all up to T-Rob’s tragedy. I won’t do that. This team blew a big lead to Arizona and barely won. They squandered chances to put away USC, Michigan, and UCLA. They were down 11 in the 2nd half to freaking Nebraska. Can’t we all just admit we had this game coming? Outside of Baylor we’d struggled with every BCS team we’d played. The Texas game was a long time coming. I don’t see why so many people are so reluctant to admit that.

by PenguinHawk on Jan 24, 2011 2:08 PM CST via mobile up reply actions   1 recs

re: Jordan scored 40+ in a playoff game when he was puking on the sidelines during TV timeouts

there’s what, 3 people on earth who could do that?

Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog (new and improved!)
College Hockey!

by fetch9 on Jan 24, 2011 2:28 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not saying T-Rob should've scored 40

Just illustrating that it’s an adrenaline-fueled game. I don’t begrudge T-Rob himself at all. But for the rest of the team, no way does staying up too late explain away the loss.

by PenguinHawk on Jan 24, 2011 3:12 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah, I agree.

But lots of those struggles you mentioned were in games where we had Releford too. I don’t think Releford coming back is going to make the struggles disappear, anymore than adding Selby made them disappear. Not saying Releford won’t help at all, just that I think the problems are more fundamental than that.

This team just has not played well for more than 10-15 mins at a time, all year long. And they have had at least as many stretches where they have played pretty darn poorly. The upside is amazing with this team but unless they can get some consistency, it will not matter much.

I don’t know what the solution is. Maybe getting beat on national TV will humble them and change the mindset. Maybe Bill Self can get them to play with greater intensity by some other coaching technique. But until they start playing well consistently, they will continue to struggle with teams they should be beating pretty easily. (Not that Texas fits in that catagory.)

Marty

by MartyR on Jan 24, 2011 4:36 PM CST up reply actions  

I think that was a part of this game without a doubt.

But I also think the previous games are showing some holes with T-Rob being in and out and Releford just being out.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 24, 2011 12:46 PM CST up reply actions  

*especially when Selby and EJ have been this bad.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 24, 2011 12:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Agree

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Jan 24, 2011 4:29 PM CST up reply actions  

How about Little not providing help off the bench

I’d hoped he’d be a safety net for when the starters weren’t cutting it. Didn’t happen vs Texas. I’m sure he wants more PT, but he’s got to show that he deserves it.

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 24, 2011 1:07 PM CST reply actions  

Good catch, he's another one.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 24, 2011 1:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Tyshawn Taylor's stats are incorrect

He definitely dribbled a ball off his leg out of bounds on the sideline. He should have at least one turnover. Not sure how the scorekeeper missed that— does that happen often?

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Jan 24, 2011 1:37 PM CST reply actions  

There's the occasional mistake here and there

but both ESPN and Statsheet have him at zero. Do you remember when he did it? I remember Johnson doing it one time but not Taylor.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 24, 2011 1:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Dumb stat question.

Are offensive fouls also credited as turnovers?

I assume not, but I know lots of guards turnovers come in the shape of offensive fouls that I feel should be credited both as a foul AND a turnover.

by sax solo on Jan 24, 2011 2:44 PM CST up reply actions  

dumb stat answer

I think so but I’m not positive

Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog (new and improved!)
College Hockey!

by fetch9 on Jan 24, 2011 4:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, they do.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 24, 2011 9:17 PM CST up reply actions  

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