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Big 12 Power Rankings

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Week three and we have a few challenges met, a few questions answered and a few more raised.  The Big 12 looks to be bunched with a small group that could truly win the conference. Another group that could play the role of spoiler, and a final group that can at least hope to beat up on eachother.

The South continues to look like the superior division and that's not a big surprise, but the amount of teams from the North that look like they could truly compete seems to be dwindling. 

A slow week upcoming with plenty of bye's around the conference, but next Thursday a good one in Stillwater as the Cowboys play host to the Aggies of A&M.

Star-divide

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1. Oklahoma

How They Fared: 27-24 over Air Force

Week Four: Cincinnati Bearcats

Previous Ranking #1

Saturday's contest might have been closer than some would have like, but Air Force is a very solid team.  They play disciplined, they have some talent and Troy Calhoun has the program moving in a very positive direction.  It's a win for the Sooners against a quality opponent but perhaps a weakness has been exposed as OU allowed 351 yards rushing at a 5.6 yard per carry average.

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2. Texas

How They Fared: 24-14 over Texas Tech

Week Four: UCLA

Previous Ranking #3

Offensively the Longhorns are still struggling a bit and the three interceptions thrown by Garrett Gilbert in his first start was a little concerning. But watching the Longhorn defense is pretty impressive. The Lonhorn defense is fast, they hit and they make plays. Tommy Tuberville and Tech were held to just 144 yards of offense including negative yards on the ground. That's a feat to accomplish against any fellow Big 12 team in their house.  Another interesting item pointed out during the broadcast, Texas starts 12 freshman.  Scary.

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3. Nebraska

How They Fared: 56-21 over Washington

Week Four: South Dakota State

Previous Ranking #4

Everyone wants to point out how bad Washington was, I get that.  But the fact is the Husker OFFENSE which was lambasted headed into the season produced 533 yards of offense and scored 56 points against a division one opponent.  The offense ranks 8th in the nation through 3 games and while it's against inferior competition, the Huskers are handling business the way they should against those opponents. 

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4. Oklahoma State

How They Fared: 65-28 Over Tulsa

Week Four: Bye(Thursday September 30th contest against A&M)

Previous Ranking #6

722 yards from scrimmage! I don't care who you play, that's impressive.  After losing some huge components of a fairly strong offense a year ago and changing coordinators, Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State have taken a leap forward and not a step back.  Defensively it's hard to say if they have enough to make a real run at the top two in the South, but they should be able to compete with A&M.  I guess we'll know soon as the Cowboys host the Aggies in about a week and a half.

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5. Texas A&M

How They Fared: 27-20 over FIU

Week Four: Bye(Oklahoma State on Thursday Sept 30th)

Previous Ranking #2

Jerrod Johnson struggled, the Aggies turned the ball over five times and that was the great equalizer in this one. And while yes the Aggies did stuggle to put away a lesser opponent, they did find their stride in the fourth quarter and show why people like this team. An argument could be made for 4th, an argument could also be made for 6th, but I like them at five for now and next Thursday's game in Stillwater should be a fun one.

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6.  Kansas State

How They Fared: 27-20 over Iowa State

Week Four: Central Florida

Previous Ranking #8

Daniel Thomas is the real deal and the Kansas State offensive line gets a nice consistent push.  Those two things are enough that Bill Snyder can coach em up and play at a little higher level than this team might really be.  The Big 12 schedule isn't as forgiving as a season ago and that may play a factor, but this isn't your Ron Prince led K-State anymore that's for sure.

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7.  Texas Tech

How They Fared: 24-14 loss to Texas

Week Four: Bye

Previous Ranking #9

It wasn't a bad loss to Texas, only 10 points. But it was a bit of a sloppy game for Tech and for a program that has hung their hat on offensive production it was very disappointing.  Now obviously I praised the Texas defense above so I have to give credit there and say that there will be plenty of teams that struggle offensively against the Longhorns.  At the moment Tech looks like a good team, but not a team that looks prepared to compete at the same level it has in recent years down South.

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8. Missouri

How They Fared: 27-24 over San Diego State

Week Four: Miami of Ohio

Previous Ranking #5

The Tigers needed a miracle of a last second score to pull this one off.  The Tigers defense once again looks average and turnovers made for an interesting game at Faurot Field.  At the moment I still think the Tigers are better than most teams in the North, but they certainly aren't unbeatable and at this point Nebraska has to be the divisional favorite.  I wouldn't discount Kansas State, Bill Snyder and Daniel Thomas who might just take care of business in Columbia as well.

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9. Baylor

How They Fared: 45-10 loss to TCU

Week Four: Rice

Previous Ranking #7

Baylor looked like Baylor on Satuday, but TCU is a very good team so that might have something to do with it.  Starting with Baylor through the rest of the bottom four, these teams all have issues and on any given day a head to head is a toss up.  Baylor's issues just seem to be a little less serious than the others.

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10.  Iowa State

How They Fared: 27-20 Loss to K-State

Week Four: Northern Iowa

Previous Ranking #10

The Cyclones dropped one to the Wildcats and stay at #10. I do feel like they are teetering though.  Defensively they had some solid moments and their ground game looked good for the most part. But if Austen Arnaud has to throw the football it's most likely not going to the target. With a quarterback that can throw even a little, Iowa State wins this game. The fact is, the overthrown pass a year ago by Arnaud against Kansas that could have won the game in Lawrence is the norm and not the exception. This team is one dimensional, I'm just not sure the bottom two teams can stop that.

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11.  Kansas

How They Fared: 31-16 loss to Southern Miss.

Week Four: New Mexico State

Previous Ranking #11a

A week three loss, but some positive signs.  Just not enough of them to move higher than 11.  Kansas is too inconsistent through three games and that's a concern.  What bumps them ahead of Colorado is the simple fact that Kansas at it's best (Georgia Tech) is better than Colorado who may not have a best. 

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12. Colorado

How They Fared: 31-13 over Hawaii

Week Four: Bye

Previous Ranking #11b

I'm just not sold on the Buffaloes.  They looked as bad as ever in the first half against Hawaii and pulled together a solid second half thanks to the running game. But watching Cal get torched on Thursday night and watching Hawaii twice fail to score from inside the three just leaves me unconvinced.  The Warriors should have been up 24-0 to start this one.  If that happens, Colorado rolls over.


Players of the Week

Brandon Weedon -23/32 for 409 yards and 6 touchdowns before being pulled from the game.  His backup? 8/11 for 165 and 2 TD's.  That's better than what some starters put up this week in the Big 12.

Best Games of the Coming Week

Oklahoma vs. Cincy 

Bad week for Big 12 football.  You have to watch something I guess?

Baylor vs. Rice

Might be a chance to answer a few of the questions about Baylor.  Rice is a decent program.  Sort of?

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I'd flip Texas Tech and K-State.

Other than that, not a lot to disagree with other than maybe where the Hawks are placed.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Sep 20, 2010 12:02 PM CDT reply actions  

At this point I look at teams on if we could beat them or not...

And honestly, we will have a shot against every team on our schedule this year. I think that is what makes this team so frustrating. We are in a down and wide-open Big12 with the easiest schedule possible but our team is too crappy to take advantage of it. Still, based on what I have seen from the league teams we play, we should be able to at least win 2-3 league games and maybe more ifwe can steal an upset or two. Hopefully we catch a team playing crappy (like TAMU and MU did last week) when we are playing hot (like we did against GTech) a couple times. Otherwise… o845yt8o7y87874. Ya feel me

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Sep 20, 2010 12:21 PM CDT reply actions  

Interesting ISU analysis

“ISU is a 1-dimensional running team”, and how is a one dimensional running team better than KU? ISU sounds like a poor man’s GT, which we are all familiar with.

by dagger108 on Sep 20, 2010 3:08 PM CDT reply actions  

Sagarin's ratings for the Big 12

4 Texas 90.72
8 Oklahoma 87.75
16 Nebraska 83.69
19 Oklahoma State 81.49
21 Texas Tech 80.97
27 Missouri 79.35
44 Kansas State 75.61
48 Texas A&M 74.34
61 Colorado 71.61
64 Baylor 70.88
74 Kansas 68.69
79 Iowa State 67.47

This is his compiled rating (which averages past peformance with predicted performance). If you go to his site, you can see ELO_CHESS (past) versus Predictor (future). Of course these computer ratings are taken with an especially big grain of salt this early in the season (hence them not being published as included in the BCS for several more weeks), but it’s interesting to see nonetheless.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc10.htm

The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Sep 20, 2010 4:10 PM CDT reply actions  

Looks like I misremembered how his ELO_CHESS vs Predictor works

they’re both attempting to be predictive – the former doesn’t use score margins (only W/L), the latter only uses score margins

The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Sep 20, 2010 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

This is how I'd do it.

No changes to your list. It’s perfect. And that’s too bad. It hurts to have the frickin’ bugeaters so damn high.

build a damn football program, beat some ass, and get on tv more.

by Rivethead on Sep 20, 2010 8:45 PM CDT reply actions  

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