Where I Come From: Expectations for the Kansas Football Season

I’m normally one of those overly optimistic people who thinks that we will go out and win more than we really should. However, despite all of the good vibes since Gill took over, I’ve kind of felt myself sitting on the fence. My optimism won’t allow me to go under .500 either and I ultimately think we should be able to beat that. We return quite a few guys, although in instances like the LBs, is that necessarily a great thing? We struggled there last year, and I have trouble believing that a coaching change and an offseason can turn a pretty mediocre unit into a good one. I ultimately have plenty of doubts about how this season will go.

Still, I think we should be able to go 3-1 minimum with the loss coming to GT or USM. Then I think we can take at least 4 games out of our weakened conference schedule to end up with a 7-5 record. Certainly possible that we fall below that, but I think there is a pretty good chance we fall within one game on either side of this.

Hopefully Gill can make me a true believer in his style.

Once you get to the Final Four, it’s tough to make a strong prediction either way.

My guess is 5-7 with victories over NDSU, NMSU, CU, OSU and KSU.

But I reserve the right to revised this during or after fall practices.

9-4 and a bowl win, if we go 500 or worse I will be really disipointed. But I could see us going 7-5/8-4 befoer our Bowl game. I mean have you seen our schedule? who is going to beat us? Nebraska, Ga Tech…….TA&M?

One thing that should help the transition is the fact we lost no one to attrition. Which is normally not the case. We lost our four best players but everyone else is back and they are familiar with each other.

My guess is we go 7 – 5 or 8 – 4 as long as we stay relatively healthy (I read over on Phog where they say Spikes might be hurt and maybe out for the year. Don’t know if that’s accurate or not).

I have a bad feeling about our O-line this year. Every time I turn around I hear about another injury. Last I heard, Spikes was out for the whole year??? If we don’t have healthy bodies up front I just can’t see us being that successful. So for right now I’m going to lower expectations to 5-7. I pray that we do better than this, but until I know for sure that our o-line is going to be healthy all year, I just can’t say my typical 7-5 at worst.

I have mixed feelings about this group; I think/hope our defence will be much improved(Tharp was a freshmen last year, and i think/hope he’s gonna break loose.)
North Dakota State-win
Georgia Tech – Lose ( This i a very winnable game, I don’t think GT’s gonna blow us out)
USM- WIN (I don’t think we can pull of the road win but this one is very (again) winnable)
NMS- win
k-state- win
Baylor – win(But don’t take baylor lightly they have the tools to beat us)
T A&M – Lose
Iowa State – win (screw experts)
Colorado- win (screw the buffs and their Ahole fans)
Nebraska- lose
Okie State- lose
Misery – WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That makes KU 7-5 in my prediction; but ican see them going 4-8 we’re just gonna have to wait and see.

I beleive strongly in Turner Gill, but he doesn’t have Todd Reesing to cover his mistakes like Mangino did. Kale Pick is one hell of a good yet unproven QB and I trust he will do well in this system, but I just don’t think he will pull off many surprises in his first season at the helm.

This season is all about swing games. I don’t see a single team on our schedule that is unbeatable. Any of our games could go either way depending on if the new defensive scheme can improve our lackluster defense and if Kale Pick can mature faster than expected. With even a decent defense and a decent offense KU could beat anyone on the schedule, but I think my Jayhawks will be a bit too mediocre on both sides of the ball to win the big ones.

1. ND State — win, Gill starts 1-0
2. Georgia Tech — loss, defense and offense just not consistent enough, Gill starts 1-1
3. Southern Miss — loss, defense is impressive but Pick isn’t this game, Gill goes 1-2
4. NM State — win, mediocre performance is enough for this one, Gill goes 2-2
5. Baylor — loss, Baylor finally has a good season going, Gill goes 2-3
6. K-State — win, K-State is terrible on offense and we squeak this one out, Gill goes 3-3
7. Texas A&M — loss, Texas A&M just too much for young QB, Gill goes 3-4
8. Iowa St. — win, Pick learns to ignore the noise, Gill goes 4-4
9. Colorado — win, Pick continues confident play and defense holds, Gill goes 5-4
10. Nebraska — loss, Neb proves to consistent to beat at home, Gill goes 5-5
11. OK State — loss, OK St rides momentum from last season, Gill goes 5-6
12. Missouri — loss, MU has more experience on both sides, Gill finishes 5-7

Swing games: Southern Miss, Baylor, MU…prediction 5-7, hopeful record 8-4

I hate this prediction, but it’s not a lack of faith in Gill, just a lack of faith in the youth of the offense and lack of swagger on defense from last year’s woes.

6 games should be close-to-automatic (3 non-cons that aren’t GT, and Baylor, ISU, Colorado). That leaves beating only 2 of GT, KSU, TAM, Neb, OSU, MU to get to 8 wins.

If for some reason the QB situations turns from “I think these guys can do OK” to “these guys are flat-out awful and the running game is not good enough to cover for them” then I see a different story. But right now this seems reasonable — not an “if it’s worse than 8-4, I’ll be furious” situation, just where I would lay my money if I had to predict a record for the season.

In all reality, this team shouldn’t win more than 5, maybe 6 games this year. The OOC schedule is not easy at all, and while the teams we draw from the South in conference play aren’t the big boys, they’re all going to be pretty good this year.

Our biggest of question marks (at least for me), which Owen eluded to over at SBNKC, is the same thing that undid us last year – the offensive line. Obviously, the talent and now some experience is there. But, if they play like they did last year for Todd – as experienced a college football QB you’ll find – with a brand new starter in there this year, it could get ugly in a hurry. Opposing defenses will shut our “power” run game down and force (likely) Pick to throw 35, 40, 45 times a game. If that is the case, we’re gonna need a couple defensive touchdowns a game to win some that we shouldn’t.

Now, that said, I think we’ll be alright. Maybe I’m just being a homer, but I see us winning 7 and making a bowl, somehow.

I love me some Kool Aid. It’s always been that way. However, it never fails to make me sick. This is the truth, by the way. It tastes great but it leaves me feeling sour and betrayed. (I’m still trying to find a flavor that works… cause I want to love it unconditionally).

It’s the same way with my sports allegiances. As many of you now know, the following is a list of sporting franchises/institutions that I’ve publicly attested to following:

Kansas Jayhawks (duh), New York Yankees (I grew up there, sorry), Duke Blue Devils (first love, but I’ve moved on), Miami Dolphins (Dan Marino), Orlando Magic (no clue), and the Florida Panthers (again, no clue).

In my lifetime, I’ve seen some championships and I’ve also seen my fair share of rough spots. As a Yankees fan, the Kool Aid is forced down your throat. Every year is expected to end with a ring, and with the money spent, it should. It’s the same way with Duke, for the large part, except for the most recent few years. The Dolphins are on their way back, but the fanbase loves the Kool Aid and it always ends up spurning us in the end for a losing season (except this year!). And I won’t even touch the Magic or the Panthers.

The Kool Aid has been temptress for my sporting spectator-drom. It sits in the fridge in a nice glass pitcher, or maybe a sun tea jar, and glistens with a nice chilled temperature. It even tastes wonderful… until reality sets in.

And this is where I now stand with the KU Football Jayhawks. Wanting Turner Gill to find that one flavor of Kool Aid that won’t do me in, but realizing that this probably won’t happen.

So, with the analogy draw out too long, I say the Jayhawks finish the season at 5-7. However, I think it needs be said that while football is always about winning and minimizing losses, this season is more about developing talent and solidifying a positive culture that, like a magnet, draws recruits toward the promise of success. Turner Gill is the right man to do all these things, and another year or two down the line, the winning will take care of itself.

NDSU: We will win this game by showcasing Gill’s commitment to the run. We will see all of our backs and ease Pick into throwing for a change.
G. Tech: This game will be closer than people think, but we’ll lose. Tech has had its system up for a while now and they’re getting pretty damn good at it. Playing against an option team, the game is all about time of possession and efficiency. Turner Gill teams are good at this, but we won’t be great until next year.
S. MIss.: They’ll avenge last year’s game. They’ll pass all over us but, again, it’ll be a close one.
NMSU: Another real chance to develop the running game and give Pick a chance to hit a few targets again. Win.
Baylor: We’ll win this one after gaining some confidence in the prior game. Nothing crazy.
KSU: As much as it pains me to say it, we’ll lose this one. Their talent is not outstanding, but they have had another year of Snyder imprinted on them.
T. A&M: Loss. They just have more talent than we do, period.
ISU: Win. It may be on the road, but I think we take down the Cyclones and Mr. Arnaud.
CU: We’ll beat Colorado this year. Bank it.
NU: Nope.
OSU: Loss number six, after another south team beats us.
MU: Gabbert will have a field day.

So, 5-7. But this is a development year.

Plus, like we won’t all bleed crimson and blue anyway if they lose every game from here on out.

Here is my wins and losses prediction, as well as some toss ups:

I think we will beat NDSU and NMSU in the noncon. Really if we lose either one of those games, well…I mean shit.

We haven’t lost to K-State in Memorial since 2003 and I think that continues. KU was a more talented team last year and I still think we are a better team this year. Cats beat a KU team that went on the road to a hostile environment and had completely quit on the season and its coach (and it still was close). KSU scored 17 points on us last year and our D will be better this year. I see KU taking a 28-17 game.

I think we beat Colorado too. Colorado’s offense won’t be that good again and if we limit turnovers and etc they shouldn’t score more than 17 on us.

I think we’ll lose to Nebraska by 20 at best. Just aren’t winning in Lincoln, not with this team at least. I think we’ll lose to Mizzou too, but as we’ve seen before anything can happen in that game.

Also think we lose to GTech. At home helps, and they won’t be as good. Still, thats an early test for this young team. Think we’ll lose a 24-17 game.

The other games are tossups to me. I’d put us as underdogs against OSU and TAMU, but we have both of those games at home. Baylor we could beat, but its on the road and Griffin scares the crap out of me. Iowa State is a toss-up to me. We’ll be underdogs on the road and the last two games against them we’ve thanked our lucky stars afterwards that we won. Southern Miss will be tough on the road too. Another coin flip game to me.

My full prediction for next year with a ton more analysis can be found in the post I did titled “Tired of Expansion Talk? Lets talk some KU FOOTBALL.” I think how we do against the south will be huge. We won’t win all three, but taking two of those three will likely put us in a bowl, IMHO.

and this is only as i remember, so take it was you will.

The K-State game was a terrible offensive game. Reesing fumbled the ball within 20 yards of the wildcats endzone twice. The defense held them on one occasion but not the other. that kind of gave the game away.

The nebraska game i also thought our Defense played fairly well, although Huskers didn’t really have an offense. Jayhawks were just going to take the lead and then Meier fumbles when he get’s love tapped in the back while he is going in the endzone for the go ahead score.

The TT game the defense was the only one putting up numbers. Our offense couldn’t do anything! Then on the 4th and 1 play in the 4th quarter ku goes for it and it’s a bad snap and reesing fumbles and couldn’t get the ball to Opurum, who could have easily made that yard. Then Reesing gets benched and Pick plays and Mangino calls just basic run plays so they don’t get blown out anymore. Although Pick made some pretty acurate passes while in a hostile environment but no one could catch the ball.

We all know how the Missouri game ended up, so i won’t even bring that one up. Bad play calling and a lose. Also Briscoe had some timely fumbles to help the Tigers get back into the game also.

Colorado was just an all around bad game. Altough the Jayhawks don’t get the pass interference call in the fourth quarter when it’s first and goal they would have taken the lead. Also i think a couple of run plays to the endzone with Opurum here would have been a good move, but i’m no coach, and that’s just my opinion.

I really think that a stroke of bad luck and some untimely fumbles really hurt the Hawks last year. Also a defensive scheme that just didn’t work out entirely. I bring all these bad memories up to show how close we where to alot of these teams last year. I know we lost some players, but so did everyone else. The cupboard isn’t empty and i can really see TG coaching these players up, and building confidence! RCJ!