Time to Step Back on the Recruiting?
by Warden11 on Apr 27, 2010 7:00 AM CDT
in Kansas Jayhawk Basketball
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PrintWith the news of Terrance Jones being in Lawrence and Josh Selby signed to join the Jayhawks, I've finally gone through some numbers looking at how successful young teams have been at the ultimate goal in college basketball. That's obviously talking about winning the National Championship, it's a question that's been in my (and some others) head since the early exit from the tournament this year. The 2009-10 Jayhawks were the best team throughout the regular season but couldn't get it done in the tournament. Kentucky was probably the second best team throughout the regular season and they couldn't get it done in the tournament. Duke's top five minute earners were all juniors and seniors this year. Coincidence?
As the research for this was started, I found this post at Rush The Court. Their findings showed that in the era of "one and dones", the team with the most experienced starters in the Final Four has won the Championship. Pretty close to what I'm after, though I did take it one step further and split up each team's minutes by class.
Over 75% of their minutes to juniors and seniors.
Just over 70% of their minutes to juniors and seniors.
68% of their minutes to juniors and seniors.
76% of their minutes to juniors and seniors.
For the years from 2000 to 2006 (pre-one and done)
| Freshman | Sophomore | Junior | Senior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan St | 1083 | 383 | 3306 | 3079 |
| Duke | 1294 | 3724 | 288 | 2519 |
| Maryland | 442 | 866 | 2660 | 3231 |
| Syracuse | 3172 | 2233 | 19 | 1601 |
| UCONN | 1687 | 2217 | 2512 | 1409 |
| UNC | 1089 | 300 | 3711 | 2300 |
| Florida | 1118 | 4451 | 1819 | 437 |
Couple of quick thoughts- First, I'm definitely not saying that Kansas should flash a "No Vacancy" sign to Jones. He's an elite talent and you just can't turn those guys away. With the Morri, Reed, Morningstar, and Taylor coming back, Kansas will be a very experienced team.
Second, I do think there is something here. For college teams to win a championship, you can't discount the positives gained from experience and playing with each other for multiple years. Syracuse being the only team to win a championship with freshman leading in minutes for the last 10 years has to say something, right? This is where getting the guys that will be around for three or four years can really pay off. They may not require a hat presser but they will pay off in the long run.
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experience
clearly, with Little and Releford comming off redshirts Terrence does create a logjam and wouldnt you like to see these players with maturity and experience get more court time. I for one believe we need more role players and less SUPERSTARS.
Who are our SUPERSTARS next year?
A junior Marcus Morris, and a freshman Josh Selby. Who else?
You can never have too much talent.
by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Apr 27, 2010 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Tyrel Reed.
Hes taking this shit over. Get on board or get the F*ck out of the way
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Apr 27, 2010 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Here is my opinion of Jones and other incomming 5 star recruits
I got absolutely no problem loading up on talented players. Where I start to get hesitant is when we get guys who publicly say “I’m a one and done player, I only want to be here a year, etc.”
I want guys like Mario Chalmers, Travis Releford, Elijah “The Prophet” Johnson, Cole Aldrich, Sherron Collins, etc. Guys who are 5 star, super-elite talent that don’t label themselves as a one-and-doner. Guys who despite being some of the best recruits in the nation have no problem staying in school a few years, buying into a system, etc.
If Jones is a type of player like that who has no problem with sitting early (if thats what Self wants, we don’t know he could get immediate PT I just don’t see it with what we have in the post) I’d love to get him. But if not I don’t want to create a mess in the locker room.
So in the end, for me, its all about attitude
Shit happens when you win championships
+5000
So in the end, for me, its all about attitude.
I’m 100% in agreement with this.
Although I think you forgot to end it with....
Noice, right?
Knew I forgot something
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Apr 27, 2010 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Except for Brandon Rush, right?
Come on errbody. We all know that if some one-and-done kid comes in and wins a title, we’ll all love him forever unconditionally.
In the end, HCBS has his philosophy. Until we stop winning Big 12 titles and making the Big Dance, I don’t think we really have a right to second-guess it. I guarantee that guys like Mario Chalmers wished they could have been one-and-dones, but they never shared that dream with the press (most likely because he knew it couldn’t happen).
If Chalmers loved Kansas so much more than the NBA, why didn’t he stay for his Senior year?
You can never have too much talent.
by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Apr 27, 2010 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Not saying thats not the case
But if you wanna look at Chalmers, lets. He was the number one or two point guard in the class and in the top 10, maybe even close to top 5 according to some recruiting sites. He never said “oh I want to be a one and done player” and “god willing I’m only in college a year” and etc.
I just hope deep down these one and done types will also be good teammates, like Xavier appeared to be by all accounts. And even if they plan on being one and done and are not, they still are good teammates and keep a good attitude. Rush never sulked about having to stay in Lawrence or complained about minutes (he wouldn’t have any reason to but still).
Thats my position with Jones. What happens if this top 10 one and done hopeful comes to KU, finds himself burried behind our 4 current post players, can’t find time in Self’s offense on the wing, etc. If he is fine with it, and staying at KU to work hard, improve his game and be a good teammate and locker room presence then of course I want him. If he is the type that is like “screw this I’m a top talent, now I can’t go pro after one year” and causes havoc to the locker room then I don’t think its worth it, not with all the talent we already have on the team and specifically at his position.
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Apr 27, 2010 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Anybody with this attitude, I really hope KU takes a pass on.
"screw this I’m a top talent, now I can’t go pro after one year"
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
and if he's so good he's going to go pro
then he’ll get his minutes. Unless it’s just on “potential”, in which case he can still be OAD on said “potential”.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Apr 28, 2010 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Great post
really make an interesting case. With this, though, shouldn’t KU have won it this year?? …………Damn
by I need more Esteban on Apr 27, 2010 9:08 AM CDT reply actions
No actually.
Didn’t include that graph, so here you go.
Over 50% to freshman and sophomores.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
i'm all for recruiting elite talent
as long as they know that playing time is earned and not given. if that scares them off, then they aren’t the kind of players that we want to play at kansas. we want players who put the team before themselves.
"that's the way it crumbles... cookie-wise."
that's good and all
but why can’t we get Jones, and then make him earn his minutes? If he is actually better than Tyrady, then he will play. And perhaps in tight situations experience wins out in the decision making.
The only problem I see with this is that then we have a 9-10 man rotation which is terribly un-HCBS-like.
Experience alone isn’t enough, though. You’ve got to have talented experience. And you can’t get talented experience without recruiting talented kids. We have no idea if TJ will end up a one and done, or a Junior like Brandon Rush was.
If a guy like Travis Releford can’t beat out some kid fresh out of high school for playing time, do we really have a better shot at winning a title with Releford out there instead of Jones? I don’t think so.
You can never have too much talent.
by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Apr 27, 2010 4:07 PM CDT reply actions
Some players need time to improve before contributing
Look at how beneficial Darnell Jackson and (to a lesser extent towards the end) Sasha Kaun were to the title team.
Look at how they played as Seniors compared to freshmen and sophmores, even their junior seasons.
I know Releford is only a RS Soph but give some guys time.
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Apr 27, 2010 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Of course experience alone doesn't win it.
But talented experience (guys who are ranked 15-100 in their class) are the guys who have been cutting down the nets.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
That's a rather arbitrary number though, isn't it?
Up the thread people were talking about how highly ranked Chalmers was coming out of school. And Sherron showed he was one of the best players in his High School All-America game, so even if he wasn’t a top 15 recruit by the so-called “experts,” he definitely was one of the top talents in that class.
Unless Withey makes a Cole-like leap in production next season, we’re probably not a title contender anyways, IMO. We just won’t have the height to deal with certain teams. Having a guy who could basically be our next Morris twin (at least) could change that, though.
You can never have too much talent.
by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Apr 28, 2010 12:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Mostly, but those are the guys who will be around for 2-3 years.
And those are the guys I want.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
*with a Josh Selby/Xavier Henry mixed in occasionally.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
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