Bracketology and the Big XII
by PDXJayhawk on Mar 5, 2010 8:14 AM CST
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PrintI was just looking at Lunardi's newest Bracketology and the matchups: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
KU, Syracuse, K-State and Kentucky are the #1 seeds. Our bracket doesn't look too bad (#2 Purdue, #3 Pittsburgh and #4 Tennessee). I'd love another crack at Tennessee. If the #1 seeds play out (which I doubt will happen), KU would face Syracuse in the Final Four before a national championship game against the K-State/Kentucky winner (my money would be on K-State beating Kentucky). KU's bracket is the only one I see playing to form. But the other brackets are interesting...
K-State has a pretty easy sled to the Sweet 16 (a second round game against the Marquette-Cal winner), and a Sweet 16 between K-State and Maryland would be a great game.
A Kentucky-Northern Iowa round 2 would be a fascinating game. The second half of their bracket, though, is pretty easy (Georgetown/Cornell and BYU/Kent State). Honestly, the team that could give them the most trouble would be the winner of the Georgetown/Cornell game (with Greg Monroe down low for Georgetown and Cornell's defense).
Missouri, as the #7 seed in Kentucky's bracket also could give Georgia Tech fits the first round and Villanova in the second. Frankly, that whole bottom bracket is a hot mess (Xavier/St. Mary's vs Ohio State/Sam Houston State and Missouri/Georgia Tech vs Villanova/Morgan State) Could we see Missouri/Kentucky in the Elite Eight?
Syracuse has a very tough road. Their second round game would be against the Oklahoma State/Wake Forest winner (OSU going away). OSU/Syracuse would be a terrific game, and I'd take OSU by a hair if they play like they did against KU. Texas A&M would face Notre Dame, then the winner of the Vandy/Weber State game. Frankly, I'd take the Vandy/A&M winner over anyone in the bottom of that bracket (Duke/Troy and UNLV/UTEP). I might even take UTEP as an upset over Duke (with Derrick Caracter making a grand reappearance).
So, at this point, given Lunardi's bracket, I would not be surprised to see five teams from the Big XII in the Sweet Sixteen (I think Texas either loses to Old Dominion in the first game or gets swamped by Purdue in Round 2 and Baylor beating Florida in Round 1 and losing to West Virginia in Round 2).
A Big XII Homerish Elite Eight:
Midwest: #1 Kansas vs #2 Purdue
vs.
South: #8 Oklahoma State vs #6 Texas A&M
and
West: #1 Kansas State vs. #3 West Virginia
vs.
East: #1 Kentucky vs #7 Missouri
Granted, I've never been good at Bracketology, but I really see the Big XII having some pretty good matchups all the way to Elite Eight.
But wouldn't it be great to fluster everyone on the East Coast with an all-Big XII Final Four????
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and now,
After reading Warden’s +/- for the K-State game, I could totally see them being upset by Maryland in the Sweet 16.
Purdue as our #2 seed would be a blessing...
they just aren’t the same team anymore. I’m also ok with Tennessee at the #4 because I’d say they have a tough time beating us twice. It’s a tricky matchup, but our guys certainly wouldn’t get blindsided in that game since they’ve lost to the Vols this year.
53 Conference Championships!! and now 6 IN A ROW!!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!
One note
It looks to me like Lunardi’s got KU as the overall #1 and, if all four 1-seeds advance, we’d play K-State in the National Semi-final, then the winner would get winner of Syracuse vs. Kentucky. According to the graphic on the top right of the page, the midwest region winner plays the west region winner.
Operation Final Four is a go. Proceed to target.
I'd take that.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
I'd say both K-State and KU get good draws in this scenario...
Michigan State or Maryland could present some challenges for the Wildcats but New Mexico as the 2 would be my choice any day of the week over Duke or Villanova.
Honestly…looking at the bracket this way it really does become clear how few VERY GOOD teams there are this year. It’s pretty balanced, there’s a handful at the top…but even those aren’t that far separated from the rest of the mix.
53 Conference Championships!! and now 6 IN A ROW!!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!
definitely
I think this has the possibility of being a big upset tourney, also possibility of having a fairly low seed make it to the final four (4 or higher)
by I need more Esteban on Mar 5, 2010 11:07 AM CST up reply actions
That game would be epic.
I’m over the Huggins thing, but still.
by WillieWannabe on Mar 5, 2010 8:51 AM CST up reply actions
I've got no ill feelings towards Huggins.
Huggins brought in the coaches. The coaches brought in the talent. Huggins left and we kept everybody else. And now we might be able to grab a 1 seed in the tourney? I friggin’ love Huggins.
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
yeah I'd say success pretty much takes care of any hard feelings...
had things turned out differently with Frank Martin, the tune might be different. However, Martin has proved pretty much everybody wrong which is great to see. I’ll be honest, both Mike Anderson and Frank Martin are some of my favorite coaches in the league right now despite them coaching our two rivals.
Also on a sidenote, I really think the level of sportsmanship and respect between KU and K-State right now is refreshing to see. Last year with the whole Brady/Clemente deal I thought this was a rivalry that could get ugly. Watching the game though you see a lot of guys helping others up, checking on guys after hard fouls and the coaches pretty clearly respect eachother as well. Throw in Frank Martin’s hug of Sherron at the end of the game and I was impressed. Martin is an extremely passionate guy and for him to make that effort after losing was nice to see.
53 Conference Championships!! and now 6 IN A ROW!!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!
Agreed. I really didn't like Martin's timeout at the end of the game on Wednesday.
Though I do understand why he did it and tried to use it as a teaching moment for his players.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
see I missed that...
heard mixed reviews on it. I can see why Kansas fans might gripe…but we also need to realize that he’s coaching a team with very legitimate Final Four hopes and as you said…he was using it as a teaching moment which I’m fine with.
53 Conference Championships!! and now 6 IN A ROW!!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!
I didn't see anything wrong with it
he was just screaming at his players during it, I’m sure telling them something on the lines of, “Remember this moment because we could face these guys again, don’t forget this feeling underclassmen”. Those sort of things. I see nothing wrong with that and if any KU fans do then I would say they’re being pretty hypocritical because we would expect the same thing from our coach.
by I need more Esteban on Mar 5, 2010 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
agreed
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 5, 2010 12:10 PM CST up reply actions
That's why I understand it.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
I didn't think it was a "piss in the kool-aid" sort of move.
I mean, there was still a damn game going on.
Yeah, I'd say this is a bit Big 12 homerish.
Not that there is anything wrong with that. Unfortunately, so often when filling out the brackets I put way too much faith in Big 12 teams. This comes from seeing them so much and being so familiar with them. However, the conference is almost always disappointing in the tournament, though they did have a nice run last year.
agreed
with the homerism a little and I do the same thing every year when filling out my brackets. I know the teams so much better than the others that I always go with them, but hey, out of any year to be a homer, I think this is it because we do have a lot of talent.
by I need more Esteban on Mar 5, 2010 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
I'm admittedly a homer...
But about 80% of these games are toss-ups. Maybe watching the Big XII teams all season makes me biased, but their records aren’t all that bad. Record-wise, we stack up evenly with the Big East, but, considering tournament teams, we’re far better than the ACC, the Big 10 or the SEC.
My thoughts:
1) How the hell is K-State a one seed? They are a damn good team but they have 5 losses on the year and their best wins are against teams currently barely ranked/not ranked. This annoys me only because in 2004 we had 5 total losses (including the semi-final game of the big 12 tournament) and beat two very highly ranked teams (Okie Light and Tejas) and we were a THREE seed. Guess it depends on the year? I still think KSU will be the overall top two seed and Puke will get a one seed. So coach K can fail to make it past the Sweet 16 again with a higher rated team.
2) It’s a weird tournament. After watching KSU this year and the ass-whooping laid on them Wednesday I thought "how is this team final 4 caliber? They have two three-point chucking guards and that’s pretty much it." Then I look around the country and ask "wait, who is going to beat them?" So that leads to my overall point: This is a weak ass field. Our title was so awesome in 2008 because we won it with the best final 4 ever and the most loaded overall tourney ever (absolutely no way to disagree with these statements, IMHO).
3) Any team that gets Purdue as a two isn’t facing them in the Elite 8. Purdue has looked pretty lathergic especially on offense since losing Hummel. Also saw Temple predicted as a 4 seed. Be nice to whoop up on them more in the tournament.
4) Teams that do scare me (apart from highly ranked one seed-esque teams):
- Ohio State. We’d win just because their front line sucks and is short but they shoot very well from outside and have Evan Turner. These types of teams give us nightmares traditionally.
- New Mexico. For some reason I have a feeling they are going to beat someone they shouldn’t in the tourney.
- Any big12 team. I really don’t want to run into a TAMU or Baylor. These teams played us down to the wire and know they can beat us. Hard to be able to beat them again.
- A Pac10 team (if any get in). I feel like with the disrespect (and its all justified) the Pac10 is getting whoever gets in from that league is going to go into all "FUNK YOU AMERICA" mode.
- Western Kentucky. My third favorite team (behind KU and Wisconsin) because of their epicly awesome mascot.
No Pac10 team scares me.
Any Pac10 team other than Cal (and maybe them) is likely to get run out of the gym in the first round.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
They are a damn good team but they have 5 losses on the year
With two of those 5 losses being against the overall #1 seed, that has got to count for something.
This annoys me only because in 2004 we had 5 total losses (including the semi-final game of the big 12 tournament) and beat two very highly ranked teams (Okie Light and Tejas) and we were a THREE seed
Yeah you say it right after this that “it depends on the year”. So don’t let it annoy you, some years there is a high quanitity of great teams and some years the field is a little more watered down. This happens to be one of those years, in the history books it won’t matter, though.
by I need more Esteban on Mar 5, 2010 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
Just to play Devil's Advocate here...
Our title was so awesome in 2008 because we won it with the best final 4 ever and the most loaded overall tourney ever (absolutely no way to disagree with these statements, IMHO).
-Couldn’t one make the argument that if all the 1 seeds made the final 4 than the overall talent of the tournament was down?
-Only one 1-seed played a 4 seed in the Sweet 16 (UNC). UCLA and you guys played a 12 seed. Talk about an easy path to the Elite 8 if you ask me.
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
I see what you are saying and we definitely had an easier path...
but here’s how I’ve always looked at the tournament. Getting to the Final Four CAN be an expectation and winning the regional in itself is a tournament. Winning the whole thing is NEVER my expectation. Once you are in the Final Four everything changes, all bets are off and I believe that to be a tourney in itself.
Kansas may have only had to go through Davidson in the Elite 8, but they also had to go through what was regarded as the #1 and #2 team in the country at the time in Memphis and UNC. Place those teams wherever you want historically speaking, Kansas still beat what most argued were the two best teams in the country that year.
53 Conference Championships!! and now 6 IN A ROW!!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!
I'm not trying to take away from what you guys did that year
I was merely trying to debunk his asinine comment how there was no way to disagree with his statements (mainly the overall tournament strength). Just some questions to ponder.
That Final 4 had talent like nobody’s ever seen. There were no upsets in regards to those 4 teams. However, the rest of the field had upsets CBS could only dream of. I don’t think, from a marketing standpoint, you could have drafted a better tournament. CInderella’s, an Elite Final Four, and an overtime national championship game? I’m pretty sure the entire network sold all of their souls to the devil for that one.
One possible reason (not the only one obviously) that many upsets occurred could have been that there wasn’t that many good teams. A few great teams, but the talent between the haves(Big 6) and the have nots (the rest) wasn’t a huge difference. Is that not an indicator of a weak field? Maybe, maybe not. But it is a VALID argument.
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
I hear ya...
and like I said, I see what you’re saying. I just felt like throwing my two cents in on the tourney.
53 Conference Championships!! and now 6 IN A ROW!!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!
Asinine comment?
I was arguing more how it was the best final 4 of all time, and the most loaded tournament (all 4 one seeds were dangerously good). If you can’t see how a final 4 with all one seeds isn’t the best ever talent wise (only time its ever happened) then…well I feel sorry for you.
As for the overall talent level there were very good teams as high seeds, thats why it was the best ever. Davidson was an 11 (big school bias does come into play here) but they almost beat us, UNC and Duke that season.
But since you got a problem with the statement bring up another tournament and lets debate.
By that logic
does that mean your ‘88 championship (6 seed) and Nova’s ’85 championship (8 seed) go down as the worst overal tournament fields of all-time based on the fact that a low seed won it all?
What about the 1993 Tourney? 3 #1 seeds plus KU at a 2 seed. Michigan’s Fab 5? Jason Kidd? Grant Hill?
How about the 1982 Tourney? Featured 2 #1 seeds in the final including a few players named Patrick Ewing and this guy named Michael Jordan?
1999’s tourney had 3 #1 seeds reaching the final four.
There. A few tournaments listed.
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
Those are the overall champions, not the field
Teams can pull upsets.
I’m speaking of the top teams as a whole as well as the at large field. Now here is where I draw some of my logic:
In 2008 KU was the last 1 seed. KU was Big12 league champs, tournament champs and had only 3 total losses. And again were the last 1 seed. UNC won the tournament last year with their same team (I’d argue last year’s field was on the weaker side), Memphis set a record for all-time wins in a season vs. one regular season loss and UCLA won a tough Pac10 and was in the midst of three strait final 4s. In my opinion not only the final 4 teams were all one seeds for the first time, but dominant one seeds. KState this year could and likely will be a one seed without winning its conference with 5-6 total losses where I made that comparison. But my overall is yes this is the best final 4 ever. First time all one seeds, and all insanely good one seeds.
Next the two seeds were league champions Tennessee (SEC Champ that went 29-4) and Georgetown (Big East Champ, 27-5), and Texas (real good that year) and Puke.
Now here is where I make my argument on the field being the best ever. Some regionals had the seeds play out exactly (East Region won by UNC, South Region won by Memphis). Others had some upset wins like KU and UCLA’s brackets. However looking at the games as a whole, high seeds or low seeds advancing, almost every game was close. I realize most games in March are but we are talking OT games, UCLA beating AandM by 2, Memphis beating Miss State by 3, etc etc.
Therefore I combined the two. Strongest final 4 in history (all one seeds, all pinnacle teams as one seeds), other top seeds with real good records that most other years would be a one seed, and overall close games throughout the tournament (these loaded teams had to really battle to make it there). Thats my logic and it works for me, and many ncaa “experts” agree whatever thats worth
All I heard was
2008…2008…2008
I thought you wanted to debate the other tourneys? Or was that how you say that there can’t be any reason to disagree?
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
I'm giving my opinion on why it was the best tournament ever.
The best final 4 and in my opinion the best field.
Its called an opinion. Go talk about how much you hate KU on your KSU board and stop bugging me about it. I can think and post whatever I want. You can disagree. You aren’t going to convince me I’m wrong. Let it go. You also aren’t going to convince me that tomatoes are tasty or that birds are trust worthy. Because they are my opinions. Just like this is my opinion. Ta ta
by Andrew Clark on Mar 6, 2010 11:08 PM CST up reply actions
Damn
so unfriendly.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Haha well
I gave a detailed stat-fueled argument on why I felt the way I felt.
His only response was “what about other tourneys?” with no counter evidence or anything, just a sentence saying I’m wrong or “asinine.”
I don’t need none wildcat round these parts giving me grief on them opinions you know what I’m saying?
I also just get sick of talking about stuff like this with non-KU fans
They will put any spin they can to make our title seem less awesome. Like “well you didn’t play any good teams to get to the final 4” and “memphis choked the game away” etc etc.
Last year I had a missouri fan say to me “I don’t know why you guys think you are so great, before last year you hadn’t won a title in 20 years.” This shit from fan bases whos teams don’t have one title. Shit not even a league title…
It just gets old. So excuse the grouchyness.
I also sprained my ankle yesterday in a tennis match so I’ve generally been in a pissed mood. Especially since I can’t walk and its like 65 and sunny outside and all my friends are golfing and drinking, and likely drinking while golfing. Sigh…
Not once did I mention that the title was "less awesome"
I was merely trying to debunk his asinine comment how there was no way to disagree with his statements (mainly the overall tournament strength).
I was bringing up some valid points that one could use to argue against your bold opinion. The fact is, that title was truely amazing considering the talent in the league that year. With the one-and-done’s dominating the college basketball landscape, one could argue that the NCAA hasn’t seen that type of talent at the same time in a long time.
I was merely taking a shot at your arrogant and smug opinion – while yankin’ your chain a little (as sax solo below clearly got).
As a reader of SB Nation, I apologize to the rest of RCT for creating this tangent. I am a frequent visitor here because I do enjoy Denver’s thoughts and Warden’s statistical analysis. I usually do not comment when I have an opinion, but that statement seemed a little off-the-wall.
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
Yeah let's just say
this hasn’t been a glowing example of good-faith argumentation.
Also, maybe not so much with tossing around words like “asinine”, “smug”, and “arrogant”. Yeah, we’re real proud of our 2007-2008 Jayhawks and maybe we get a little carried away with the hyperbole, but yaknow, within the confines of RCT, I think you just let it slide.
No because the two and three seeds were also loaded
Texas had a better record than KSU does this year and they were a two. Looking at that pool, there were a lot of 5-6 seed esque teams that were very good.
Hell KState was an 11 seed right? That team with Beasley would be a 7 this year’s tourney, all IMHO of course
K-State's 20-11 team?
The Big 12 has about 7 teams that can surpass that record this year and get better than an 11 seed. It was a “weak” conference that year apparently. So that means this year’s tournament will be that much deeper? Better perhaps than the 2008 field?
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
weak conference that year?
KU was a 1 seed, Texas a 2 seed, OU was a 6, AandM a 9 and KSU an 11. Not amazing but not too different from what we will see this year, except with two more teams in of course. KU and Texas were both juggernauts that year though so its harder to measure, where as this season its been KU, KState below them, then 5 teams all about even below them.
There are three great teams this year. You know who they are. Everyone else is playing for fourth. Whichever of the three doesn’t have to face both of the other two to win it all will have a significant advantage.
"Here are our top priorities: recruit, beat Missouri, recruit, win the North, recruit, win the Big 12, and in most cases if you win the Big 12 then you're playing for a National Championship. And then we're going to recruit."
by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Mar 5, 2010 11:22 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
great point...
Would anyone rather play, in the Final Four and Championship…
Syracuse then Kentucky (or vice versa)
Upset team X then Kentucky/Syracuse
Pretty easy answer. I’d take anyone in the tournament over having to play Syracuse and Kentucky on 48 hours of rest.
Absolutely
Which is why getting the overall #1 seed is key this year. We all know KU, Syracuse and Kentucky are going to be the top 3 seeds. It’s just a matter of which one can avoid having to play both of the other two. One is fine, two, not so much. So far, KU’s got the better profile, despite Syracuse’s higher current ranking. Of course, rankings don’t matter much where seeding is concerned. That’s why Butler is going to be a 6 seed (or thereabouts) this year instead of a 2 or 3 like their ranking suggests they should be.
Operation Final Four is a go. Proceed to target.
Northern Iowa...
Boy, I’d take UNI’s estimated draw right now: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Game 1 against Louisville
Game 2 against Duke
And the bottom half:
Xavier/Utah St
Villanova/Wofford
Missouri/Wake Forest
Purdue/Troy
Can we be that 9 seed?
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