KU vs K-State: Plus/Minus

by Warden11 on Mar 5, 2010 7:51 AM CST

In my eyes, the Wednesday game was a statement game on a few different fronts. First, Kansas takes everything a very good opponent has and not only survives but punches back. Second, Kansas leads the entire way with Sherron Collins starting the game shooting 1 for 10 and Cole Aldrich having two points in the first half. Third, K-State makes a run to tie the game in the second half and Kansas turns it up another notch. Taking the lead and stretching it to a 17 point win. The team that showed up in the first half is Final Four good, the second half team is National Champion good.

Kansas	MIN	FGA	FTMiss	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	PTS	Plus/Minus
Marcus Morris, F	24	3	1	3	2	1	1	2	4	7	4
Cole Aldrich, C	29	6	2	4	1	1	3	0	2	9	8
Sherron Collins, G	38	15	0	2	4	1	1	3	2	17	5
Tyshawn Taylor, G	26	5	0	1	4	2	0	1	5	11	7
Xavier Henry, G	31	9	1	5	1	2	1	1	2	19	15
Brady Morningstar, G	8	2	0	1	1	0	0	2	3	3	-2
Tyrel Reed, G	16	5	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	6	5
Markieff Morris, F	25	6	1	9	2	0	1	1	4	10	10
Jeff Withey, C	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Thomas Robinson, F	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1
Elijah Johnson, G	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2
Totals		51	5	27	16	8	7	10	25	82	49

Kansas State	MIN	FGA	FTMiss	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	PTS
Curtis Kelly, F	15	2	0	3	0	0	1	1	4	4	1
Dominique Sutton, F	16	3	0	1	1	0	0	2	4	0	-7
Luis Colon, C	18	4	3	4	0	2	0	2	1	5	1
Denis Clemente, G	39	15	2	2	2	1	0	3	1	21	5
Jacob Pullen, G	35	11	1	5	1	2	0	2	3	20	11
Chris Merriewether, G	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jamar Samuels, F	23	4	2	4	0	1	0	2	4	4	-3
Jordan Henriquez-Roberts, C	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Martavious Irving, G	6	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3
Wally Judge, F	21	6	2	4	0	0	1	1	4	6	-2
Rodney McGruder, G	21	3	1	6	0	0	2	0	0	5	9
Totals		50	11	29	4	6	4	13	22	65	12

Quick Thoughts:

In the Value the Ball post, I talked about points per non-TO possession. That post was focused on K-State but I did throw in the last three games for Kansas: 1.28, 1.26, and 1.55. After a rough estimation showing 32 possessions in the first half for K-State, they were at 1.58 points per non-TO possession. The second half they scored 1.08 points per non-TO possession. That's locking down on defense.
Xavier Henry has definitely returned to early season form. When he's on like he was Wednesday night, good luck to everyone else. A guy that can shoot the three like him and get to the basket when it's open is a whole lot more difficult to defend than a guy that can only do one of those. Henry also got himself into a little foul trouble in the first half, I wasn't too worried about it because he's stayed clear of foul trouble for the year. Justifying my stance, he ended the game with 2 fouls.
Aldrich's +8 is one of his lower scores on the year. 9 points and 4 rebounds will do that. We'd all like to see a little more of an offensive game from him, maybe he is saving his moves for the tournament.
Morningstar only played 8 minutes in the game, first time he didn't play double digit minutes since he came back this year. His playing time has been dropping the last few weeks, Taylor's been playing better and Morningstar hasn't been shooting that well. Morningstar did hit his first 3 since the Texas game, so that's a bonus. Also, I don't remember thinking Morningstar played poorly in this game. When he was in, he moved the ball well on offense and played solid defense. Exactly what a team needs from its role players.
Depth, depth, depth. To survive an off night from Collins and Aldrich, a couple of other guys have to fill that role or you start looking like K-State did. Xavier's putting himself in that first group again. Taylor and Markieff played great games to help fill the hole. Relly Ice throwing in a +5 is impressive as well. The knock against him is quickness and he finishes with an overall solid game against one of the quickest teams in the nation. Sticking with depth, the guards got in foul trouble early and Kansas had the guys to step in and hold ground. Very few teams can do that.
Most of us agreed that three things needed to happen for Kansas to win: value the ball, make your free throws, and a good game from a Morris. Kansas only had 10 turnovers, shot 81.5% from the line, and Markieff finishes with 10 points and 9 rebounds.

Quick Thoughts on the Opponent

K-State finished at +12 as a team. That's incredibly bad. Want to hear something worse? They were at +13 at halftime, so they finished the second half with a -1. Ouch.
Outside of Pullen and Clemente, the team was at -4. If they want to make a run in the tournament, they're going to have to keep their bigs out of foul trouble so they can contribute.
For all of the hype Judge was getting in the game, I've got him at -2. Missed a couple free throws, only had 6 points, and 4 rebounds. He also committed 4 fouls and a turnover. But hey, I guess he did have a nice dunk.

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this

Also, I don’t remember thinking Morningstar played poorly in this game. When he was in, he moved the ball well on offense and played solid defense. Exactly what a team needs from its role players.

I know it gets old, but announcers refer to Brady as a ‘glue guy’ it’s a little cliche but KU needs a guy like Brady even if he’s coming off the bench. He brings a lot of intangibles to the game that are tough to quantify in a box score.

Man crush. Sherron.

by labbadabba on Mar 5, 2010 8:49 AM CST reply actions

Roll Players, hmmm.

It would seem that this team is redefining that term. Isn’t it usually a term for a starter?

(Labba – you posted while I was trying to think of something more profound. Hopefully, someone else can come up with more.)

by dagger108 on Mar 5, 2010 8:52 AM CST reply actions

Role.

Roll is what a ball does.

"Here are our top priorities: recruit, beat Missouri, recruit, win the North, recruit, win the Big 12, and in most cases if you win the Big 12 then you're playing for a National Championship. And then we're going to recruit."

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Mar 5, 2010 11:26 AM CST up reply actions

I thought Taylor played awesome last night

And Reed continues to make shots when he is in the game (second half three was huge). I can understand why Brady had less minutes but I’m sure he’ll get plenty in the tournys. Its tough though because we know Sherron is playing most of the game and X is going to be in a lot as well. So then there are three guys shuffling for the two guard spot.

by Andrew Clark on Mar 5, 2010 9:16 AM CST reply actions

Re: Wally Judge

For all of the hype Judge was getting the game, I’ve got him at -2. Missed a couple free throws, only had 6 points, and 4 rebounds. He also committed 4 fouls and a turnover. But hey, I guess he did have a nice dunk.

He was getting so much attention because, as the announcers overkilled, he has been basically absent the past 7 games. He’s even failed to see the court a few games. This game he brought in some nice energy and some decent stats being the 7th or 8th player off the bench. If this was earlier in the season it would have been a typical game for him – ESPECIALLY the 4 fouls. We’ve seen glimpses of his talent this season, but it’s been a long hard year for him adjusting to college ball.

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Mar 5, 2010 9:17 AM CST reply actions

Yeah, that came off a little harsher than I wanted.

Compared to your other big men in the game, he was an animal. But the way they were talking, you’d think he had a double-double.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by Warden11 on Mar 5, 2010 9:19 AM CST up reply actions

It was just nice seeing him do something

other than foul. I don’t know if there’s any stats like this out there, but I would have to assume he’s got to be one of worst in the nation in Fouls/Minutes played.

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Mar 5, 2010 9:22 AM CST up reply actions

sounds like the Morris twins...

last year for us. Those guys had four fouls apiece before tip most times last year.

53 Conference Championships!! and now 6 IN A ROW!!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!

by Owen on Mar 5, 2010 9:24 AM CST up reply actions

Without having anything to compare him to,

it looks like a foul about every four and a half minutes. Certain games really stick out, your first Missouri game he played 5 minutes and had 4 fouls. Nebraska he had 4 fouls in 7 minutes. 8 games where he has had 4 fouls and Wednesday was the only game where he played more than 20 minutes (21 min).

If K-State is going to rely on him in the future, that has to change. You can’t have a guy you rely on being taken out of that many games.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by Warden11 on Mar 5, 2010 9:46 AM CST up reply actions

That's what is holding us back

It’s not just Wally too. It’s Jamar. It’s Curtis. It’s most of our bigs. That’s our biggest weakness (and that’s above Denis going ridiculously cold for games at a time while chucking up 20 shots…).

Just for comparison to the Morris Twins:

Wally (‘10) = 0.22 F/Min.
Jamar (’10) = 0.13 F/ Min.
Kelly (’10) = 0.11 F/ Min.

Marcus (‘09) = 0.14 F/Min.
Marcus (’10) = 0.10 F/ Min.
‘Keif (’09) = 0.18 F/ Min.
‘Keif (’10) = 0.16 F/ Min.

We can only pray for a better turnaround….

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Mar 5, 2010 10:04 AM CST up reply actions

He's got some raw talent though.

He’s not one I look forward to seeing next year. Get another year of offseason training & drills under his belt and he should/could really excel for KSU. As long as you guys hang on to Martin, you will really start to produce some nice Big 12 & Tournament results.

At least I can still root for K-State (as long as they aren’t playing KU) in the tourney compared to never being able to root for Mizzery.

by MichiganJayHawk on Mar 5, 2010 10:15 AM CST up reply actions

* I should specify .. Long term good results with Martin

re-ignite that true rivalry that existed in the 70’s & 80’s

by MichiganJayHawk on Mar 5, 2010 10:16 AM CST up reply actions

Yep.

The game just hasn’t “slowed down” for him yet. Seems like that’s pretty standard for a big- T-Rob is absolutely having the same issue this year, and the Morrii had it last year.

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Mar 5, 2010 11:30 AM CST up reply actions

And just to put that into perspective

a difference of 0.05 F/Min. is the equivalent to 1 additional foul every 20 minutes. That’s an additional foul per half. 0.22 is a terrible number.

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Mar 5, 2010 11:19 AM CST up reply actions

I thought high fouls/min is K-State's strategy

not its weakness.

by sax solo on Mar 5, 2010 12:27 PM CST up reply actions

Drawn fouls yes

If it’s the other way around we’ll have Chris Merriewether recording 20 minutes a game….

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Mar 5, 2010 12:28 PM CST up reply actions

KU did have more fouls this game

But I think when a lot of K-State’s hope for drawing fouls is to play hyper-aggressively and create judgement call situations, it’s not going to magically break K-State’s way more often than not, and you’re going to get makeup calls and so forth.

E.g. Clemente can zap in and draw the charge, but does he have to shove in hard with his head down and elbow out? There’s an element of “we’re gonna beat the shit outta you” on top of the smart foul drawing opportunities.

by sax solo on Mar 5, 2010 12:43 PM CST up reply actions

(er, draw a block.. coffee.. coffee)

by sax solo on Mar 5, 2010 12:48 PM CST up reply actions

team

once again its coach bill has the jayhawks playing TEAM ball. If they continue they can and will be national champs again.

by Chris A Brown on Mar 5, 2010 9:59 AM CST reply actions

welcome to the site Chris

53 Conference Championships!! and now 6 IN A ROW!!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!

by Owen on Mar 5, 2010 10:00 AM CST up reply actions

Kudos to the TEAM

What KU did on Wed, lock down defense in the 2nd half (last 15 minutes) is a great achievement. KSU has been gunning for KU all season. The loss in Manhattan just upped that desire/desperation. To be able to lock down a good team like K-State when they have been prepping for this game for 1+month is always a good thing. K-State knows our players, knows our offensive sets, knows how we prefer to play, yet KU was able to control the game late. Hopefully they can flex their muscles in Columbia tomorrow too.

Best part of the NCAA tourney is that it will be difficult for any team facing KU to know exactly what to expect. Do you shut down #4? Do you double Cole? Do you put your best defender on X? Do you puts your fastest guy on T2? It creates quite a dilemma. They can look at film, study the stats, but how do you simulate playing a team like KU?

by MichiganJayHawk on Mar 5, 2010 10:03 AM CST reply actions

No to beat us there is only one way

Get really hot from 3 and hope we miss outside shots. Thats it and thats all, and its been like that for the past 3 years

by Andrew Clark on Mar 5, 2010 10:29 AM CST up reply actions

you can also drive and dish

and/or drive and hope for an offensive rebound with the KU rebounders pulled away trying to block the shot. OK St did both the 3-pt shooting and the drive-and-dish pretty well, IIRC.

Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 5, 2010 12:07 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah a lot of the drive and dish

Is because we do way too many, IMO, double teams in the post. Our help defense then is too late and bang, easy dunk.

by Andrew Clark on Mar 5, 2010 1:28 PM CST up reply actions

yeah, it's kind of a pick-your-poison

rather have the team get scored on because they’re too eager and aggressive trying to alter shots than too lazy or meek. (doubling down by the guards is another matter)

Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 5, 2010 2:29 PM CST up reply actions

Taylor, Reed, Morningstar combining for 4 out of 7

3’s is something I’d like to see every game.

Also the odd thing about Cole’s first half is that it wasn’t so much that he was held to 2 points, it’s that we barely used him on offense. Probably the effect of X sinking shots and Sherron going for all those daggers with long rebounds.

by sax solo on Mar 5, 2010 1:02 PM CST reply actions