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Depth Ratio and Bill Self

As we're going through ideas and dumping everything out of the closet in the slow time of the year, I figured it'd be a great time to apply something I'd read earlier this season to Bill Self and the Jayhawks.  As I was reading Michigan State's SBNation blog "The Only Colors" (outstanding work there), I came across something called "depth ratio".  I'll just quote KJ and let you see his reasoning for it first-

Depth Ratio = (minutes played by top two players) / (minutes played by 8th and 9th players)

This ratio allows us to compare a single number across different teams and captures two key aspects of having depth:

  • Not relying too heavily on one or two players to play nearly all of the minutes in important games, thereby reducing their ability to defend, rebound, and push the ball in transition with the intensity Izzo prefers.
  • Having enough bench players to allow everyone to play hard every minute they’re on the floor and be able to deal with foul trouble. Nearly every basketball team has to have seven guys who play significant minutes (five starters plus one perimeter bench player and one interior bench player). Having two more bench players you can count on is what sets a good Izzo team apart from other teams.
  • Star-divide

    Notice how he refers to things that he believes Tom Izzo desires in his teams.  At this point in time, if Izzo likes it- I like it.  The man's earned it, right?  Anyway, I thought applying this to Kansas could hopefully show us either trends in how Bill Self handles playing time for both his top guys and how deep into the bench he is willing to go.  This question is especially relevant after this season for two reasons.   First, some of us are a little worried about how little playing time some of the young guys saw.  Second, this was possibly Bill Self's most talented team when considering the top 10 or 11 players.  How did he use that depth to KU's advantage?

    One of the things I was most disappointed in this year was how little our bench guys came into the game and changed the pace of the game.  Early in the season it seemed like when they bench guys got minutes, they were in the opponents face and really pushing the ball.  This worked beautifully in frustrating the opponent and wearing them out.  Maybe the competition level changed and this strategy wouldn't have worked in conference play (though Missouri does fine with it).  A second problem could have been HCBS wanting the top 7/8 guys to play together as much as possible.  Understandable because as we saw this season, this group of guys did not fit together all that well.  Taylor looked lost at times, the Morri disappeared from various games, Aldrich never really got it going offensively, and Collins struggled from the field. 

    I've figured the depth ratio for all of Bill Self's teams since his first year at Illinois and the first table has the depth ratio and the end of season result.

    Kansas  Michigan State  
    Year Depth Ratio Result Year Depth Ratio Result
    00-01 2.69 Elite Eight 1998-1999 2.62 Final 4
    01-02 3.57 Sweet 16 1999-2000 2.67 Nat Champ
    02-03 2.80 2nd Round 2000-01 2.93 Final 4
    03-04 4.66 Elite Eight 2001-02 3.14 1st Rd Loss
    04-05 3.99 1st Round 2002-03 2.35 Elite 8
    05-06 2.68 1st Round 2003-04 4.39 1st Rd Loss
    06-07 3.10 Elite Eight 2004-05 2.74 Final 4
    07-08 3.22 Nat'l Champion 2005-06 4.51 1st Rd Loss
    08-09 4.42 Sweet 16 2006-07 3.96 2nd Rd Loss
    09-10 2.74 2nd Round 2007-08 2.9 Sweet 16

     

    KJ at TOC determined that Izzo's magic ratio was 3.00 and below.  As we can see here, this doesn't work as well for Coach Self.  In the years he has had below 3.00 (8th and 9th getting decent minutes compared to 1st and 2nd), his teams have made early exits from the tournament except for his first year in the tournament.  It seems that Bill Self almost handles his teams better when they aren't as deep.  Last year, 4.42 is very high and that team made it to the Sweet 16.  Look at his first year at Kansas, 4.66 and an Elite Eight.  Even the National Championship team had a number above 3.  Maybe Bill Self just needs his guys to be a little bit tougher and a work a little harder?  I don't know but it's really odd to see Bill Self teams do almost the exact opposite of Izzo led teams.

    Michigan State's numbers from KJ's old blog here

    Comment 20 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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    Initial reaction

    When has HCBS ever coached in his glasses?

    "Not to be cliché or anything, but I’m Jayhawk born and Jayhawk bred and when I die I’ll be Jayhawk dead." - Ovechwin

    by Andy Edwards on Mar 31, 2010 9:47 AM CDT reply actions  

    Yeah maybe thats late nioight or something?

    I don’t think I have ever seen it either

    Shit happens when you win championships

    by Andrew Clark on Mar 31, 2010 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions  

    I think that picture was taken during the Alcorn State game.

    Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

    People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

    by Warden11 on Mar 31, 2010 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

    Third lowest of his coaching career

    Going from over 4.42 last year to 2.74 this year, makes me really wonder this – did Xavier hurt us even more than we already thought? Did having to give him so many minutes stunt the growth of someone like Elijah by burying him on the bench?

    "Not to be cliché or anything, but I’m Jayhawk born and Jayhawk bred and when I die I’ll be Jayhawk dead." - Ovechwin

    by Andy Edwards on Mar 31, 2010 9:53 AM CDT reply actions  

    I highly doubt it, personally

    X had a very good (though not great) year. If X hadn’t been here, either Little or Releford (and possibly both) don’t red shirt, and take X’s minutes. EJ would still have been in the same position he was once Brady came back from his suspension, and it’s a strong possibility that EJ would have red shirted this year had both Releford and Little not taken a red shirt year.

    We can discuss the benefits of red shirting, of course, and maybe that would have been better for EJ this year than playing, but he was never going to get a lot of minutes this season, especially after Brady came back from suspension. HCBS has said multiple times that he EJ didn’t come to KU to contribute a lot his freshman year. Playing against the competition he played against in practice, I believe, is more than enough to prepare him for more minutes next year and beyond.

    Well, that sucked.

    by Bensa on Mar 31, 2010 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

    Yeah I think in this case

    We really needed a “wing” so the only players really affected by Henry were Releford and Itsamea Mario.

    Still surprising the insane amount of minutes Henry played for the season even when he was shooting ice cold from the flo. Maybe Self really valued his size and defense.

    Overall with the makeup of next year’s team I’d expect that number to climb above three and be pretty high. With 4 rotating post players and losing Sherron and likely X it’d almost have to roight?

    Shit happens when you win championships

    by Andrew Clark on Mar 31, 2010 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions  

    Minutes will be interesting next year.

    I’m not sure how well we can predict anything right now because of the uncertainty on both departures and additions.

    Once we get that all figured out, we should be able to predict some numbers somewhat accurately.

    Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

    People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

    by Warden11 on Mar 31, 2010 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

    dumping everything out of the closet in the slow time of the year

    Including KCsince88?

    Shit happens when you win championships

    by Andrew Clark on Mar 31, 2010 10:58 AM CDT reply actions  

    Be careful what you ask for.....

    "Not to be cliché or anything, but I’m Jayhawk born and Jayhawk bred and when I die I’ll be Jayhawk dead." - Ovechwin

    by Andy Edwards on Mar 31, 2010 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions  

    I'm flattered, but spoken for

    At ease big cat. At ease

    Shit happens when you win championships

    by Andrew Clark on Mar 31, 2010 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

    Makes you wonder with our depth...

    if there might have been a better coach for the situation. Someone who uses a deeper bench perhaps?

    53 Conference Championships!! and now 6 IN A ROW!!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!

    by Owen on Mar 31, 2010 11:31 AM CDT reply actions  

    Kind of what I wondered.

    But really, how odd is it that Bill Self teams and Izzo teams have such different profiles? What am I missing that might cause that…small sample size, crazy tournament, or is it a coaching related issue?

    Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

    People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

    by Warden11 on Mar 31, 2010 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

    the sample size is limited, especially if you're just looking at tournament results

    maybe RPI or Kenpom rating would tell you more about the overall season.

    and while I’m nitpicking – maybe the ratio is different in conference play than in non-con. though if anything Self seemed to use the depth less in the conference games (at least from eyeballing it).

    but this is all really interesting, especially since we’ve been somewhat critical of Self’s bench usage this season.

    Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "Yes, comets! The icebergs of the sky. By jackknifing from one to the next at breakneck speed, we might just get some kinda gravity boost". and also "Kif old friend, I don't know which disgusts me more. Your cowardice or your stupidity! We'll simply set a new course for that empty region over there. Near that black-ish hole-ish thing."

    by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 31, 2010 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

    I agree with everything you said

    However with the style of play part, wouldn’t our style of play suggest we should be using more subs since we play faster, get up and down more, etc than Sparty?

    Shit happens when you win championships

    by Andrew Clark on Mar 31, 2010 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

    As I was writing that I was thinking about that too

    There is some truth to that as far as conditioning, but do Self’s teams rely more on team chemistry than some others? I have a feeling they do. This team just never seemed to gel. I think we all felt that throughout the season, somehow it just never fully ‘clicked.’ There were flashes of it, but never 20 consecutive minutes of ‘team’ ball. I think the Posnanski article linked after our loss captured it as well as anything we were able to come to grips with. Hell even Self doesn’t know why these guys never hit their ceiling.

    by MichiganJayHawk on Mar 31, 2010 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

    Glad to see someone else using my new-fangled stat

    Ironically, this is the year depth ratio has lost its magic predictive power for MSU. Our ratio currently stands at 3.78, as Izzo has basically used a core 7-man rotation most of the season with limited minutes for the 8th and 9th men.

    It’s clearly true that depth ratio doesn’t matter nearly as much for most other teams as it does for Tom Izzo teams. Bo Ryan has been very successful in the Big Ten with a 7-man rotation. And often a low depth ratio can simply indicate that a coach plays a lot of guys because none of them are all that good.

    Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!

    by KJ@theonlycolors on Mar 31, 2010 1:39 PM CDT reply actions  

    I'll steal from anywhere.

    Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

    People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

    by Warden11 on Mar 31, 2010 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

    especially something that's different and makes sense.

    Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

    People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

    by Warden11 on Mar 31, 2010 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

    Play what ya got or get what you play . . .

    Am I the only fan who believes recruiting is a separate skill from coaching?

    “Formula Coaches” who are determined to play a certain style are one extreme and coaches who cater to their best (or favorite) player(s) each year are two extremes of the spectrum.

    Each year (more often with injuries) there is a problem to solve: How well do these players fit that formula. Conversely, what formula produces the best team using the players we have now?

    Coach Self, like anyone else with that title, walks the fence between the extremes. His balance isn’t perfect, but it’s a whole lot better than average.

    RRROOOOCK CHAAAALLLK! JAAAAYYYHAAAAWWWK! KAAAAYYY UUuuuUU!

    by KU62 on Apr 7, 2010 7:00 AM CDT up reply actions  

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