FanPost

A KenPom Preview: In Honor of the Fallen


Listen to this as you read it.

The Background

#1 vs #2 in the conference.  #2 vs #5 in the nation.  Home winning streak on the line.  Kansas is coming off of their second loss of the season thanks to a red-hot Oklahoma State.  Because of that loss, Kansas State actually has the longest current winning streak in the Big 12.  Kansas State is coming off a win against the Tiggers, though it wasn't a super impressive win.  For the game, the Wildcats shot terribly, finishing with a 37.5 eFG%.  Though that's not too bad considering they had a field goal percentage of 18.8 at the half.  Missouri was just as bad offensively and when the home team woke up in the 2nd half, they couldn't do anything to stop it.

All numbers are for Big 12 play only.

The Offense

Four Factors

  • Effective FG% (5th) -- They've been over 50% in four of their last five games.  Jacob Pullen leads them in scoring at 18.5 points per game.  Denis "slappy" Clemente is second in scoring at 15.8 ppg.  We're just going to hope both don't get hot and we have to see another team rain threes.
  • Turnover % (12th) -- They turn the ball over more than every other team in the Big 12.  Something I'd imagine drives Frank Martin crazy considering how good they are at offensive rebounding.  Every turnover is one less chance at a board.  Keep the pressure up and they'll throw some balls our way.
  • Offensive Rebounding % (1st) -- This is their strength of the entire team. They eat you up on the offensive glass. (same line RC used last year!)  It's still true, they crash the offensive glass and live on the putbacks and extra chances.  The Morri are going to be a key in this area, stay out of foul trouble and keep their men off the glass.  Let Aldrich chase a few blocks and the Morri can clean up the misses. 
  • FTA/FGA (1st) -- They shoot more free throws than any other team in the conference.  They shoot so many free throws, they've made more than anyone in the conference despite being 10th in free throw percentage.  Once again, Morri twins- play smart.

The Defense

Four Factors

  • Effective FG% (1st) -- They're going to force you into hurried and contested shots.  Work the ball inside and kick it out if they collapse and sag off.  Hopefully the guards for Kansas can hit some open shots to open up the middle.
  • Turnover % (2nd) -- This has already been discussed, I believe if Kansas can limit the turnovers they will be in good shape.  K-State likes to foul, giving them the ball takes away their prime opportunity to commit fouls. 
  • Offensive Rebounding % (4th) -- They're not as good on this end of the court, so a few putbacks could be there.  Just don't be stupid when going after them and give up easy baskets or commit fouls. 
  • FTA/FGA (11th) -- I'm just going to quote RC's from last year:
With how many turnovers they go for, this isn't all that surprising. However, this is just ridiculous. They foul you a shitload. In fact, on average, take your field goals attempted and divide by two, and that's how many freebies you shoot. Honestly. That is just ludicrous. So, make your throws, and we should be fine. It could be just as simple as that.

 

We know the players and the keys have been covered in KC's preview. 

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