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First Thoughts: Colorado Buffaloes

Saturday night was undoubtedly an instant classic.  No doubt about it.  You should catch that one on ESPN Classic sometime later this week.  Winning that one really put the Jayhawks (6-0 conference record) in a prime position to capture their sixth straight Big 12 regular season championship.  They now hold a two game lead over everybody else in the conference.  The presumed "biggest threat" to dethrone Kansas, Texas, and Missouri are tied for second, each at 4-2.  The Longhorns still have to make a trip to Columbia to play the Tigers, so one of them can be chalked up for another loss right now.  Which one, we do not know.  But, as of right now, you can narrow it down to a two horse race - Kansas and Texas or Missouri, depending on who wins the matchup February 17.

Now, not to get too far down the road, the games in between the big time matchups still need to be accounted for.  Those are the ones that can sneak up and bite you and derail a run for a conference title.  The games that a team overlooks, with a highly publicized matchup on the flip-side.  So, we will spare no opportunity to press onward and get ready for the Jayhawks' next opponent - the Colorado Buffaloes.

Historically speaking, Kansas owns the Buffaloes.  Since 1980, the series stands at a lopsided 56-7 mark, in favor of the Jayhawks.  And, on average, the games haven't been close, either - with an average score of 82-67.  And, only two games have been within ten points since 1999.  The Buffs have beaten Kansas at home exactly twice in the last 20 years.  Not quite the level of dominance as the Kansas State rivalry, but impressive and intimidating, nonetheless.  Kansas fans regularly invade Boulder and give the feel of a home game inside Allen Fieldhouse - though, nothing compares to the real Fieldhouse.

Colorado has been very good this year at home, (10-1) but a lackluster 1-7 away from home.  If the laws of averages work themselves out, that means they have a 90.9 percent chance of knocking off the Jayhawks Wednesday night, right?  Well, not really. What that doesn't take into account is talent.  While the Buffs have obviously brought in better talent since head coach Jeff Bzdelik took over, they still rely too heavily on their guards and don't get enough from their frontline, despite having as many big bodies as the Jayhawks.

Star-divide

Backcourt Comparison

Kansas - Sherron Collins, Brady Morningstar, Xavier Henry, Tyshawn Taylor and Tyrel Reed
Colorado - Cory Higgins, Alec Burks, Nate Tomlinson, Dwight Thorne II and Levi Knutson

Kansas Colorado
PPG 47.0 51.9
RPG 12.4 14.4
SPG 6.1 5.5

 

Frontcourt Comparison

Kansas - Cole Aldrich, Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris, Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey
Colorado - Marcus Relphorde, Austin Dufault, Shane Harris-Tunks, Casey Crawford and Keegan Hornbuckle

Kansas Colorado
PPG 36.4 25.9
RPG 26.8 12.5
BPG 6.0 1.3

 

There is little doubt in my mind that the Colorado guards can play and score with their counterparts in blue.  Cory Higgins took over last year with the departure of nineteen year senior Richard Roby and 17.7 points per game.  He has upped that to 18.3 per game this year.  For a guard that is so heavily relied upon to score, Higgins has an outstanding 50 percent shooting percentage from the field.  Higgins has help in the backcourt, though.  Freshman guard Alec Burks is second on the team in scoring and has been a very pleasant surprise.  A Kansas City product, Burks is averaging 16.3 points per game, and doing so while shooting ever better than Higgins; checking in at 53.1 percent from the field.  He's not much of a three point shooter, (27.5 percent) but as the running joke goes, give him a game against Kansas; see if he doesn't heat up.  Burks also leads the team in rebounds with 4.7 boards a game. (Does that seem low to just me for a team leader?)  Give him another year to develop and Burks should be an All-Big 12 level performer by his junior year, if not next year.  Sophomore Nate Tomlinson, an Aussie, runs the show as the point guard and averages 4.3 assists per game.  He is the stereotypical point guard; don't expect much scoring from him.

Do the Buffs even try to get the ball inside?  Without having watched their every game this year, the answer, based on the numbers, would almost overwhelmingly be 'no.'  Perhaps every website has their numbers misprinted.  Yeah, that's it.  Maybe StatSheet, Yahoo!, ESPN, the Colrado official website and the Big 12 website are all guilty of the same stat reporting mistake.  Since I doubt that, I'm truly at a loss for explanation.  They have somewhat comparable size to the Jayhawks - three players over 6'9" and five over 6'7" who see regular playing time.  What's that you say?  Nobody else seems quite as good when you are used to watching Cole Aldrich on a game to game basis?  That makes sense.  In all seriousness, if the Jayhawks throw the ball inside over and over, they should score with ease and put pressure on the Colorado guards to shoot at a high rate, since they get little production from the frontline.  The only way the Buffs stay close is if they cook up some whacky zone defense scheme to prevent the ball going inside and force Tyshawn and Xavier to shoot three after three.  Oh, and one last thing - twelve rebounds a game from your frontline?  The stats must be misreported.  They are not.  Burks, a guard, leads the team in rebounds with 4.7 per game.  The opening line for over/under on Kansas rebounds has been set at 60.

 

Record: 11-10 (2-5)

Best Win(s): Baylor, Nebraska

Worst Loss(es): @Oregon State, @Colorado State, @Iowa State

 

Informative Colorado Links

The Ralphie Report

KenPom Page

StatSheet Page

Player rotation from their Yahoo! team page:

Player Rotation:   Usual Starters—F Austin Dufault, F Marcus Relphorde, G Alec Burks, G Cory Higgins, G Nate Tomlinson. Key Subs—G Dwight Thorne, F Casey Crawford.

 

Against Common Opponents

Kansas Colorado
Baylor vs. W, 81-75 vs. W, 78-71
Kansas State @ W, 81-79 vs. L, 81-87
Nebraska @ W, 84-72 vs. W, 72-60
Iowa State @ W, 84-61 @ L, 63-64

 

Random Stat Musings About Colorado

  • In case you skipped ahead to shorter sentences down here, ss stated above, Burks leads Colorado in rebounding at 4.7 per game.  If you read it above, it needs to be emphasized again.  That is mind-boggling.
  • Five of the Buffs' ten players with the most minutes per game are either freshmen or sophomores, including two sophomores and a freshman in the starting lineup.
  • The Buffs handle the ball very well, boasting an assist to turnover margin of 1.15, good for 55th in the nation.  They also only allowing a 0.73 assist to turnover ratio, good for 73rd in the nation.  Smart ball-handling will be a key.
  • Don't put them on the free throw line.  They will not miss many.  76.7 percent - third in the nation.

 

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Comments

Display:

Kansas should win easily

But Colorado is much improved, so if the Jayhawks don’t show up they could be upset. The Buffs knocked off Baylor at home and gave K-State a run for their money in an 87-81 loss. They lost by 4 points to Gonzaga, Arizona and Texas A&M. So don’t expect them to roll over.

Their Princeton offense relies entirely on 3-pointers and backdoor cuts, so we should be ok as long as KU is closing out hard on shooters and Aldrich and the Morris twins play good help defense. Cory Higgins and Alec Burks are really the only two players Coloardo has who can create their own shots outside of the offensive set.

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Feb 1, 2010 8:56 AM CST reply actions  

Burks is day to day right now with a sprained knee...

I think they’ll try and have him go but he might not be quite as effective this Wednesday.

52 Conference Championships!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!

by Owen Kemp on Feb 1, 2010 9:05 AM CST up reply actions  

This is a classic trap game

I have faith in HCBS’ ability to motivate our players, but this has trap game written all over it. Coming off a huge week in which KU defeated both its local rivals, and presented with two games against inferior opponents before a trip down to a top-ten Texas team, it would be understandable to overlook Colorado, Nebraska or both. This Colorado team is very tough at home, and they play a style we don’t see very often. It will take a very concerted effort to win on Wednesday, and our players would be well to treat this game in as serious a fashion as they would K-State or Texas. RCT posters should as well, for what it’s worth.

Operation 39-1 is a go. Proceed to target.

by Bensa on Feb 1, 2010 9:13 AM CST reply actions  

Good point...

about the trap game/week. Bzdelik will have his team ready to play and they’ll try to low things down as much as possible. Of course the crowd will be amped up to have #1 in town. Also, to claify, KC wrote about this game being played tonight, it’s actuall Wednesday night.

by Triston27 on Feb 1, 2010 9:28 AM CST up reply actions  

expect the crowd to be about 50% KU...

I just got an email this morning pushing single game tickets. They’ve been selling the KU game in three packs over recent years to avoid the pro KU crowd snatching up one game. If they’ve moved to single game sales, that means they have plenty open and Kansas fans will snatch those up.

Still it is a tricky one. I’ve been every year since I’ve lived here and Kansas sleep walks through about the first 30 minutes of this one before they wake up. CU makes it ugly, slows it down and Kansas usually ends up in a bit of a fight but pulls away late. I suspect that will be the case but with a slight improvement in talent I’m still a little worried.

52 Conference Championships!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!

by Owen Kemp on Feb 1, 2010 9:39 AM CST up reply actions  

if anybody wants to go...

I’m down.

52 Conference Championships!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!

by Owen Kemp on Feb 1, 2010 9:40 AM CST up reply actions  

I'll go

If you fly me out and back from KC

by KU Grad 08 on Feb 1, 2010 10:55 AM CST up reply actions  

hmmm...

I’m not that desperate

52 Conference Championships!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!

by Owen Kemp on Feb 1, 2010 11:02 AM CST up reply actions  

Man

I thought we could be chums

by KU Grad 08 on Feb 1, 2010 11:11 AM CST up reply actions  

we could be...

but that doesn’t mean I’m going to fly you to Denver and back.

Tell you what…I’ll meet you in St. Louie for the regional finals.

52 Conference Championships!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!

by Owen Kemp on Feb 1, 2010 11:16 AM CST up reply actions  

That's for real, by the way.

We’re hoping for a site get together in the Lou – no matter how much I hate St. Louis.

"Not to be cliché or anything, but I’m Jayhawk born and Jayhawk bred and when I die I’ll be Jayhawk dead." - Ovechwin

by Andy Edwards on Feb 1, 2010 11:44 AM CST up reply actions  

Chicago is far superior

But what you hate got gainst why hate St. Louis

by KU Grad 08 on Feb 1, 2010 12:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Cardinals fans, for starters.

I just like KC. I’m a KC guy and always will be.

/irrational, unexplained hater

"Not to be cliché or anything, but I’m Jayhawk born and Jayhawk bred and when I die I’ll be Jayhawk dead." - Ovechwin

by Andy Edwards on Feb 1, 2010 12:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Ha, I just don't like St. Louis fans.

They’re “the most knowledgable fans in baseball” or whatever they call themselves. Stupid.

"Not to be cliché or anything, but I’m Jayhawk born and Jayhawk bred and when I die I’ll be Jayhawk dead." - Ovechwin

by Andy Edwards on Feb 1, 2010 6:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Upped it to 3 games now huh?

Used to only be part of a 2-game package. At least CU is starting to get some stuff their way. After all, this game used to almost always be during winter break. Pissed Ricardo Patton off to no end.

by Triston27 on Feb 1, 2010 9:45 AM CST up reply actions  

even though it's 3 games...

I was looking at it and could get three for a total of $45 so it was still less than going to a game in Lawrence. That and every year since they’ve done it…they have to go to single game sales the last week because they can’t sell it out.

52 Conference Championships!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!

by Owen Kemp on Feb 1, 2010 9:59 AM CST up reply actions  

looking less likely...

but I never rule anything out completely.

52 Conference Championships!! Holy Hell...Good Luck with That!!

by Owen Kemp on Feb 1, 2010 10:43 AM CST up reply actions  

I wanna go to that game

But the only tickets on stub hub or a lot of skrilla for a yung joc

by KU Grad 08 on Feb 1, 2010 10:56 AM CST up reply actions  

Not suprising.

It’s still pretty cool though that even on a Wednsday in February, the crowd will still be incredibly pro-KU.

by Triston27 on Feb 1, 2010 10:06 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah I'm kind of worried myself

For how much we own CU, we never really play THAT well in Boulder, just wear em down with talent eventually. This CU team is a lot better, might be the year we can’t afford to play poop style

by KU Grad 08 on Feb 1, 2010 10:55 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, I stupid.

"Not to be cliché or anything, but I’m Jayhawk born and Jayhawk bred and when I die I’ll be Jayhawk dead." - Ovechwin

by Andy Edwards on Feb 1, 2010 11:36 AM CST up reply actions  

I would go with "hopeful."

I love watching these guys play. I wish they played more often. Of course, my homework load doesn’t so much, but whatever, right?

Operation 39-1 is a go. Proceed to target.

by Bensa on Feb 1, 2010 11:39 AM CST up reply actions  

It is nice to know that someone

actually reads it, though, and caught it.

"Not to be cliché or anything, but I’m Jayhawk born and Jayhawk bred and when I die I’ll be Jayhawk dead." - Ovechwin

by Andy Edwards on Feb 1, 2010 11:45 AM CST up reply actions  

I caught it

I just wanted to see how long it would go and if people would show up tonoight for an OGT.

Bensa: Ruining Grad’s fun since 1973

by KU Grad 08 on Feb 1, 2010 12:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Triston actually called it out.

"Not to be cliché or anything, but I’m Jayhawk born and Jayhawk bred and when I die I’ll be Jayhawk dead." - Ovechwin

by Andy Edwards on Feb 1, 2010 12:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Sigh

KCsince88: Making Grad look stupid since 1924

by KU Grad 08 on Feb 1, 2010 12:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Bensa:

laughing hard in the law library since 12:35 pm.

Operation 39-1 is a go. Proceed to target.

by Bensa on Feb 1, 2010 12:36 PM CST up reply actions  

I think the best way to avoid the trap game problem would be to mix up the rotation a bit. Guys like EJ, CJ, and T-Rob would be so jacked to get out there and actually play that they wouldn’t be slacking off, IMO.

Also, we’ve had several games in a row here now where we haven’t been getting enough production from the bench. Maybe some changes in that rotation are needed to get that going. This team has WAY too much talent to only be getting 4 or so points from the bench outside of TT. That’s actually ridiculous.

"Here are our top priorities: recruit, beat Missouri, recruit, win the North, recruit, win the Big 12, and in most cases if you win the Big 12 then you're playing for a National Championship. And then we're going to recruit."

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Feb 1, 2010 10:43 AM CST reply actions  

One of the reasons the bench hasn't produced as much is Self is giving his bench players less minutes

TRob didn’t play at all against KSU, Reed only had 8 minutes I think (and this game went to OT!). Markieff only plays to spell Cole/Marcus. Apart from Tyshawn our bench isn’t doing much thats for sure

by KU Grad 08 on Feb 1, 2010 10:58 AM CST up reply actions  

As Bill Self said a couple of weeks ago,

he could not start Sherron, then the bench would be a lot more productive.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Feb 1, 2010 11:06 AM CST up reply actions  

But that doesn't make any sense.

The point of increasing bench scoring is to ADD to the starters’ scoring. We need more than 5 players scoring points if we want to be great.

"Here are our top priorities: recruit, beat Missouri, recruit, win the North, recruit, win the Big 12, and in most cases if you win the Big 12 then you're playing for a National Championship. And then we're going to recruit."

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Feb 1, 2010 6:46 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, definitely like this new guy.

Hope he sticks around. I will have to call him “Period,” though, as his nickname because it’s just too close to KU.

"Not to be cliché or anything, but I’m Jayhawk born and Jayhawk bred and when I die I’ll be Jayhawk dead." - Ovechwin

by Andy Edwards on Feb 1, 2010 10:55 PM CST up reply actions  

good comment

I would counter though, that 8 championship basketball players is deep.

Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog
You know you like college hockey

by fetch9 on Feb 2, 2010 12:43 AM CST up reply actions  

And I would agree.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Feb 2, 2010 11:07 AM CST up reply actions  

When is this game?
If the laws of averages work themselves out, that means they have a 90.9 percent chance of knocking off the Jayhawks Monday night, right?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Feb 1, 2010 11:05 AM CST reply actions  

I dont see it happening

They’re not going to score inside too much, so they’re going to take more threes than they already do (once out of every three field goals attempted is a 3) and they never even attempt to offensive rebound, so there should be barely any offensive rebounds.

Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog
You know you like college hockey

by fetch9 on Feb 1, 2010 11:17 AM CST reply actions  

I hope you're right.

Agree with Bensa this has trap game written all over it. It’s almost impossible to be emotionally amped up every game, and I can see us sleep walking through this one. The positive is that NCHCBFS will be aware of this and may have a quick hook with some of the starters if we start out slow. Chance for some of the bench to get some more PT. Just hope CU doesn’t go insane with the 3 pointers. Bzdelik could get a couple of years tacked onto his contract if he could beat the hawks.

by hunter s. royal on Feb 1, 2010 1:39 PM CST up reply actions  

New to this site

Some really good insights here. If we can slow the 3’s and get it inside we should get the W. Would be nice if X could break out. I think our bigs will be too much for the Buffs!! I see a gutty 10-12 pt win. Also, my niece goes to CU and got tickets for her and her mom{my sister}. Two Jayhawk shirts to add to the several thousand doing the Rock Chalk Chant at the end of the game!!! RCJH

by Rock Chalker on Feb 2, 2010 4:41 PM CST reply actions  

Welcome to the site, Rock Chalker!

An additional two KU fans in ANY arena away from AFH is always nice.

Operation 39-1 is a go. Proceed to target.

by Bensa on Feb 2, 2010 5:29 PM CST up reply actions  

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