Random Observations Around the Big 12

by Warden11 on Dec 20, 2010 1:13 PM CST in Kansas Jayhawk Basketball 2010-11

As conference plays gets closer, it's always good to keep an eye on things around the conference. The Big 12 is looking like a solid conference with five or six teams that have a shot at beating anyone on the schedule. The top end has taken a bit of a hit with Kansas State losing to Florida, Texas being erratic, Baylor looking lost against Gonzaga, and Kansas not finding that top gear consistently. Trying to predict the end result now though is really tough with the unbalanced schedules which should end up giving Baylor a little bit of help in the chase for the conference championship. The bottom of the conference is being protected by Texas Tech and Oklahoma up to this point. Oklahoma was expected to be terrible. Texas Tech is a little bit of a surprise, they were returning a lot from last year and expected to be towards the middle of the pack and fighting for a spot in the NCAA tournament.

Anyway, lets go through some numbers and see how each team has fared up to this point. We're going to be using a combination of KenPom's numbers and numbers from Statsheet. The rankings used here will be from Pomeroy's site. And remember, a lot of the team numbers will still be inflated a bit due to scheduling cupcakes early in the season.

Kansas

Kenpom currently has the Jayhawks ranked 2nd in the nation behind Duke. Best wins are against Arizona (18), Memphis (36), and UCLA (57). Even though we're undefeated here, the close games against UCLA and USC at home have me a little nervous heading into conference play. Josh Selby using 30% of his possessions and Marcus Morris using only 20% of his possessions on Saturday also has me worried. That's not a balance that I want to see as the season moves along.

Potential red flags: Last 5 games with A/TO ratio below conference average with the last 3 games a ratio of less than 1. PPP of 1.04, 1.09, 1.13, and 1.01 in the last 4 games.

Ku_ppp_medium

A few observations about the rest of the conference below the jump and the graphing tool for your enjoyment.

Texas

Rick Barnes brought in a lot of talent again but seeing whether he can coach it is always the fun part of watching Texas basketball. Right now, it seems like they're pretty good when they decide to play defense and very beatable when they don't feel like it. Their defensive PPP for the season are as up and down as it gets. When they're turning over the opponents, they're very good. When they're not getting turnovers, they're allowing a lot of points.

Ut_dppp_to_medium

Colorado

Kenpom ranks the Buffaloes #72. A somewhat trendy pick as a surprise team in the Big 12 this year. I don't think anyone expected them to be in the hunt for the championship but fighting for the top half was a possibility. They started off slowly but seem to have rebounded in their last 5 games. Time will tell if that's because they figured something out or just taking advantage of patsies on the schedule. Either way, their offense has definitely come around. Check out the PPP compared to Kansas and the conference average this year.

Cu_ppp_medium

Kansas State

KenPom rank 28. Hmm, somebody didn't buy into all the preseason hype. The Wildcats have some issues with their team. Pullen's not living up to the expectations but that's not entirely on him. Losing Clemente seems to be hurting a lot more than many people expected but their post players have also shown very little improvement from last year to this year. Wally Judge is out and dealing with personal issues. Curtis Kelly disappears way too often. Jamar Samuels has an offensive rating of 95.9 on the season. Unless those three guys put it together, they're going to be very vulnerable all season. Interestingly, K-State's three best offensive games came when they had their lowest FT rate on the season. Overall, they're just struggling to score.

Ksu_ppp_medium

And of course, for you to play around with is the graph tool below. Remember, you can change the y axis, x axis, color of the points, size of the points, and switch to other graphs in the top right corner. I've spent quite a bit of time just playing around with it. If you find something meaningful, screen capture it and share!

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Comments

And crap.

There’s no motion chart to play with. Back to the drawing board.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Dec 20, 2010 1:21 PM CST reply actions

Ok. Should be there now.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Dec 20, 2010 1:43 PM CST up reply actions

I have to agree with that troll from the post game thread

At the rate we have been playing, I would be suprised if we keep the streak going through conference play. We got really lucky on saturday but I dont think we can pull many more of those out

by fizzle406 on Dec 20, 2010 2:27 PM CST reply actions

Could do this all day.

Kind of surprised that KU’s TO% doesn’t seem to have an impact on their points allowed per possession.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Dec 20, 2010 3:04 PM CST reply actions

you know what graph I'd like to see?

Kansas final fours vs. a certain other somebody. : )

Questions, Comments? email me at denverjhawk@hotmail.com

by Owen on Dec 20, 2010 4:03 PM CST up reply actions

That was the greatest bar graph in the history of nerdom

Shit happens when you win championships

by Andrew Clark on Dec 21, 2010 8:24 AM CST up reply actions

Some notes as to why KSU is struggling

Although their defense is statistically better than last year according to Kenpom (86.5 and 9th overall vs. 88.9 and 17th overall last year), their offense has fallen off a cliff, from an efficiency rating of 116.6 (13th overall) last year to 106.9 (75th overall) this year. Now, i realize that saying KSU is struggling on offense after they scored 24 points in about 30 minutes in Florida is like saying the sky is blue or Josh Selby has balls, so we need to look a bit deeper for the culprit. Turns out it is free-throws: last year KSU was the 4th best team at earning free throws, and despite shooting only 66.9% from the stripe (good for 241st in the country) that disparity in FTs attempted combined with their excellence on the offensive glass made their turnover-prone, above-average shooting team an efficient offensive force. This year, although the offensive rebounding is still there, the FTs are not. KSU is only 109th in FT rate, and beyond that, they are shooting a horrific 55.1% from the stripe (good/bad for 343rd in the country – i’m pretty sure that means last). So they are getting to the line a lot less and converting fewer of the opportunities that they do have. And that is why they have struggled to score. A silver lining? Once they enter Big XII play we all know how much the fouls will go up, so if they can improve their free-throw shooting to the still bad mark of ~65% their offense should improve as a result.

by 2.1 seconds left on Dec 20, 2010 6:59 PM CST reply actions

I don't think it's that simple for K-State.

The FT Rate is low because their offense is standing around and taking jumpers. Pullen’s still getting to the line at a pretty decent rate but nobody else is even coming close to that. Clemente was attacking defenses and creating movement towards the basket, creating opportunities to get fouled. Honestly, I don’t see their FT rate improving a whole lot over the course of the season unless one of their other guards becomes a lot more aggressive attacking the rim. Their A/TO rate is a good indication of the standing around and non-fluid offense.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Dec 20, 2010 7:41 PM CST up reply actions

I understand what you're saying

And I agree that their problems aren’t of the “easy-fix” variety – I definitely wasn’t implying that they just need to wait to Big XII season for the freethrows to start occurring. That said, Denis was not good at drawing free throws, one of the main complaints about his game was that he used speed to get off finesse shots instead of getting fouled. Jacob Pullen, on the other hand, was a beast at getting fouled, with a FT-rate last year that put him in the top 250 players in the country – very high for a guard. I think you are correct in that the drop-off in Kelly and Samuels’ FT-rates can likely be linked to KSU no longer having a speed-demon guard that could get them easy fouls in transition. No stat for that yet (or at least, Kenpom is keeping them to himself). I’d like to see a stat that showed how many of a player’s passes resulted in a foul – thats almost as good as an assist, and in some cases its more beneficial because it hurts the other team too.

by 2.1 seconds left on Dec 20, 2010 8:51 PM CST up reply actions

KSU is not as physical and aggressive so far this year, for sure.

Last year they fouled 22.4 times per game, and got fouled 24.2 times (OMG THIS PRUFS CHETING). That’s a lot of fouling; KSU liked a very physical game and forcing the refs make a call. This year they’re averaging 19.8 fouls per game, and getting fouled 22.3 times. “Foul margin” is slightly better, BUT…

Average pace is the same, but KSU is taking about 4-5 fewer FTs per game than last year. Combined with bad aim, they’re making about 6.2 fewer points per game than last year—-just from free throws. Definitely an offensive hit. However, last year KSU’s opponents were shooting more free throws too, and that’s part of why KSU’s defensive efficiency is higher this year.

Looking at “free throw margin”, last year KSU was getting 1.7 more points per game than its opponents from free throw shooting. This year so far they’re getting 0.7 PPG less. They’re losing from the line.

What are they doing instead of those 4-5 extra free throw attempts? Turning the ball over an extra time per game, and taking a couple more shots. Unfortunately they’re shooting worse than last year, so even with those extra shots they still make pretty much the same total points. If KSU was shooting this year’s shots with last year’s percentages, they’d be making about 4.9 PPG more.

So yeah, getting to the line less and shooting worse across the board has not helped KSU’s offense.

I personally think it’s the Clemente effect. He was fast, great at keeping a handle on the ball, and he could penetrate and disrupt defenses all by himself. Pullen can get open off the ball, and make good shoot/pass/drive choices from there, but he’s not as much of a threat facing a set defender. KSU’s other guards aren’t ready to fill Clemente’s shoes yet, either. My guess is that when KSU runs its plays now, when the time comes for someone to shoot, the defender who used to be out of position or rushing over because of a Clemente drive last year is, this year, more often in good position, harder to draw a foul from, and able to contest the shot. So, fewer fouls, and worse shooting.

by sax solo on Dec 21, 2010 11:38 AM CST up reply actions

The PPP graph is depressing.

I’m curious to see how the team plays in the three easy home games before Michigan.

Right now I’m not sure how to read the stats because of the cupcakes. Colorado’s offense looks dangerous but their defense is not so great. Their SOS is very bad, 329th acc. to Pomeroy. They are probably in for a rude shock when Big 12 play starts.

by sax solo on Dec 21, 2010 3:53 AM CST reply actions