KU Hoops Plus/Minus
by Warden11 on Nov 17, 2010 10:50 AM CST
in Kansas Jayhawk Basketball 2010-11
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PrintAnother season of basketball and we're going to continue with the look back at games using the same plus/minus that was used last year. This season we're going to publish it every Wednesday and cover all the games from the previous week, we'll see how that goes. These posts are going to be limited to the tables and a few quick thoughts or trends that are spotted throughout the year with other basketball stuff posted separately throughout the week (hopefully).
My biggest worry heading into this season was whether or not the Jayhawks would be able to score consistently enough to win the conference. We knew Marcus Morris could score. We knew Tyrel Reed could light it up from the 3 point line. Did we really know anything else about this team's ability to score? Markieff had moments last year where he looked like he could score but he also had moments where he looked lost. After two games, I'm a lot more comfortable. I guess the team putting up 1.41 points per possession in a game will do that for a fan.
Game 1: Kansas vs Longwood
| MIN | FG | FtMiss | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PF | PTS | Plus/Minus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markieff Morris, F | 26 | 8 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| Marcus Morris, F | 26 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 11 |
| Tyshawn Taylor, G | 28 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 13 |
| Tyrel Reed, G | 26 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 |
| Travis Releford, G | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| Thomas Robinson, F | 19 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 13 |
| Jeff Withey, C | 12 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Royce Woolridge, G | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
| Brady Morningstar, G | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| Niko Roberts, G | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Mario Little, G | 16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Jordan Juenemann, G | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Kansas was +94. Longwood had a total of +4. The boxscore was just as lopsided as the game.
A few more thoughts and Valpo after the jump.
- Markieff Morris was a beast on opening night. Anytime a player grabs 15 rebounds and scores some points, you know things are going well for him. Mix in five assists and some steals and we're talking about being everything we can hope for in a night.
- Taylor also had a very good game on Friday. 17 points out of him combined with 10 assists, he needs that to cover his 6 turnovers. The points and assists might be a product of the competition, lets hope the turnovers aren't as well.
- T-Rob impresses as well. He was 5-8 from the field and 6-7 from the line. Love seeing that from the line because he's got a game that could send him there often. Another guy that I had no idea what to expect on the offensive end.
Game 2: Kansas vs. Valparaiso
| MIN | FGA | FtMiss | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PF | PTS | Plus/Minus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markieff Morris, F | 19 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 11 |
| Marcus Morris, F | 30 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 23 |
| Tyshawn Taylor, G | 30 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| Tyrel Reed, G | 29 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 |
| Travis Releford, G | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Thomas Robinson, F | 21 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Jeff Withey, C | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Royce Woolridge, G | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brady Morningstar, G | 25 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Niko Roberts, G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Little, G | 20 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| Jordan Juenemann, G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Kansas +66 and Valpo ended up -10...shoot 17 for 62 and miss 8 free throws and you've had a very poor game. The +66 isn't the 94 from game one but this game had 11 fewer possessions and the Jayhawks didn't shoot quite as well.
- Kieff had his minutes limited because of some foul trouble in the first half and he still has a solid game due to grabbing 13 rebounds. Picking up right where Cole Aldrich left off plus a more polished offensive game?
- Marcus Morris grabs the high total thanks to efficient scoring, 11 rebounds, and only 1 foul and 1 turnover.
- It will be interesting to see how the minutes turn out this year between Little and Releford. Releford comes in and does his job but he's still limited offensively. I'll go ahead and predict that Little gets more minutes per game while Releford is used as a defensive player or gets his shot on nights where Little's shot isn't falling.
- Morningstar doesn't look very good here and somewhat confirms what a lot of people have mentioned. He's just kind of there. While Josh Selby and Elijah Johnson are on the bench, I can deal with it. Someone has to play when Taylor sits but if those guys are available, I'm over Brady. Reed has passed him as a basketball player. Little and Releford bring more to the table than Brady. Not a knock on the guy at all, he gives his all and makes a few plays a game. I'm just far from convinced he's one of the top 8 or 9 with this team.
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So stoked Warden's +/- is back!
I think the numbers bear out what we’ve all been saying about Brady. For whatever reason, he just doesn’t seem to have it so far this year. He’s primarily a defender/3-point shooter. If he’s not hitting his shots (as he hasn’t so far this year), we just don’t get much from him. His ability to pass effectively into Cole last year kept him essential, but without Cole as an anchor down on the block, I’m not sure Brady has a significant role on this team moving forward. I actually hope I’m wrong on this, but I fear his effective days have passed him by.
When is Late Night?
And passer as you mentioned after this sentence.
He’s primarily a defender/3-point shooter.
Reed’s a better shooter and just as good on defense from what I can see to this point. Releford’s a better defender. The passing isn’t as important because the bigs aren’t relying on position and a good pass to score. Frontcourt scoring this year will be more catch, face up, juke, and dunk. Those passes are easy to make.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Yeah most of the Morris' points come on us just feeding them the ball
And letting them go to work, especially against undersized/overmatched post defenders you see often in the non-con. At this point, I think Brady should only play if we need him due to foul trouble/injuries. Relcity plays better defense and has great athleticism, and M Little knocks down shots and has good size. I think the two of them have cemented the three/wing spot which means Brady can spell Taylor and Reed at the 1 and 2 spot. Once Selby is cleared though, that moves Brady down to 4th in the guard pecking order. Possibly 5th behind the Prophet Elijah
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Nov 17, 2010 11:37 AM CST up reply actions
If our top 3 post players
As in Morris, Morris and Robinson get above 50 per game in terms of +/- we will win every game. I’d also think that if Cus and Kieff’s total +/- combined is over 40, were likely winning the game. Thats too much production from the post.
Good to see Taylor hit 13 in game one, although game two is concerning. Be noice if he could constantly be over 10. Would mean he is taking care of the ball, distributing and making shots, and we need him to do all of those things
Shit happens when you win championships
I wonder
if there is a way to adjust this for pace. I’m not good enough at math to do it but I am assuming this team is going to play a lot faster than the previous couple of years
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I think you can, similar to how I did it last year on one of them.
However, for the postgame numbers, I’m not sure if adjusting them is what I’m after. The first game did have a ton of possessions, the +/- reflects that. Personally, I like the idea of these as a “game report” and messing with the numbers to make them the same changes that. However, if you’re wanting to use these numbers to compare teams (which I will do here and there) and look forward to other games, an adjusted number would be better. I’ve been playing with that here and there and we’ll see that throughout the year at times.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
yeah if you're using it as a game report then it's the way to go.
I just don’t want people to fall into the trap of comparing this year’s team to last year’s team via +/-
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Which I'll do at some point but use an adjusted number like I described below.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Could you just.....
Could you just divide each number by the number of possessions in a game and then use a multiplier (like 100) to get a number without significant decimals?
Or am I just seriously over-simplifying things?
That's what I did last year in a few posts and for the look ahead graphs for the teams.
Basically took the number of possessions from the game (say 74) and then divided by the national average (around 69). So for a total of +13, I’d multiply that by .93 and get 12.09.
It makes sense to me but I’m not sure if it’s the best way to do it.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
That looks about right to me
even though if we are trying to compare different teams it may make sense to multiply by the average possessions for that team (especially later in the year when the number stabilizes).
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