Okay, okay. I know. How can keeping the #1 recruit in the nation off the team not hurt the team? Well, As best as I can tell, Selby's replacement would likely be Elijah Johnson, himself a 5-star recruit with a year's experience in the system already. We all saw flashes from EJ last year, especially early, when Tyshawn Taylor and Brady Morningstar were on the bench for doing stupid stuff.
The fact is, it's not like the backup to Selby is Brennan Bechard (no offense to Mr. Bechard) or some equivalent. KU is incredibly deep this year, just like last year. I rather doubt HCBS will have a hart time coming up with an effective lineup with or without Selby.
Now, there's no doubt that, if Selby is determined to be eligible, our national stock will rise. We'll probably be given a better shot at winning the NCAA tournament and the Big XII. Fine, so be it. All I'm saying is that, with or without Selby, we're gonna have a damn good team, one that will be competitive in every single game, and should win close to 30 (or more) games just like last year.
All that said, here's my prediction for what will happen with Selby. Disclaimer: I have absolutely no inside knowledge on this; I'm just going on my gut and past observations of the NCAA. Disclaimer 2: I think we all know how useful my predictions have been in the past. (See here.) Okay, on to the prediction: The NCAA will take its sweet time and finally announce in Early November that Selby will be held out of somewhere between 5 and 8 games due to inappropriate contact with an agent or something dumb like that. Selby comes in toward the end of the non-conference slate (which KU has already dominated) and, even though there are some bumps in the road, KU ends up 14-1 in the non-con and goes 13-3 in the Big XII (losing at Colorado, at K-State, and at Baylor), tying K-State for the conference championship and makes it to at least the Elite Eight (I hate predicting the NCAA tournament; crazy stuff happens there, as we all know from last year). Selby averages 14 pts. per game, 2nd on the team only to Marcus Morris, who averages around 17 per game.
You can take it to the bank.