A Quick Look at Big 12 Hoops
by Warden11 on Oct 29, 2010 11:00 AM CDT
in Kansas Jayhawk Basketball 2010-11
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PrintThe basketball season is getting closer men, with that lets take a quick look around the Big 12. Some teams still have eligibility issues (us) and many others are still trying to figure out who will fill in the holes left from graduation or early departure to the NBA (also us). Using the plus/minus that I tracked last year, I figured each team's returning contributors and their losses from last season's top 10 players. Hopefully the rosters at ESPN are accurate because going through each team's official site would have been a little too much work.
To review, the plus/minus is a very simplistic way of looking at a basketball box score. Each player is credited or docked depending on what they contributed. A player will get a +1 for each point, rebound, assist, steal, and block. A player is docked a point for each field goal attempt, free throw miss, turnover, and foul. This isn't anything new or fancy but it does give me an easy way to calculate it and the scoring system fits what I want to see in a team. If anyone has some ideas, share them in the comments and I'll be happy to listen or justify why I'm doing something a certain way.
Below you'll find the graph and some other thoughts on some of the things I notice.
*sorry about image quality...Google Docs changed their publishing options and it's not playing nice with SB Nation at the moment.
Quick Thoughts
- Colorado returns 4 of their top 5 from last season, led by Alec Burks and Cory Higgins. If they have a smooth transition with their new coach (not a given, huh guys?), they could easily be the surprise team of the Big 12 this year.
- Texas Tech also returns their key players from last season. Pat Knight said it himself in the last week, they return a lot and it is "a get-an-extension or a get-fired kind of year".
- It's easy to see why KU's depth was a hot topic last season. After losing three players to the NBA, we still bring back the 3rd highest plus/minus from last season.
- Preseason Big 12 favorite Kansas State brings back the 4th highest total. Kind of surprising to me here actually because the plus/minus wasn't a fan of K-State all last year due to their free throw shooting and leading the conference in turnovers. Can they overcome those same issues again?
- Jeff Capel better hope he is either the best coach or recruiter in the nation because their 2010-11 season isn't looking good from here.
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I really don't see it with Colorado
even with their guys coming back
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Surprise being relative...preseason 9th by the coaches and I haven't seen them much higher elsewhere.
I won’t be surprised if they’re middle of the pack but I also won’t be surprised if they’re 11th.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
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I'm picking them 6th...
in my preview for Rush the Court. Might be going out on a limb…but that’s what the preseason is for : )
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When's that getting published?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Colorado was in the
“also receiving votes” in the AP poll, fwiw. We’ll see if they’re legit or not.
When is Late Night?
well after the discussion today...
they lost their 6’11" big man for the year with a torn ACL so that certainly won’t help. guess I jinxed them with my positivity.
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Same here
I picked them 6th also, only problem for CU is they have to play KU, KSU & MU twice although they do get NU & ISU twice so that helps. Addition by subtraction I think with Bzdelik
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9th sounds about right
Nebraska and Oklahoma are worse and then I think Iowa State and them fight it out for 9th and 10th.
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Here's the math
Athletic scoring guards + New coach who is opening up the playbook + 8 conference games at altitude = a pretty good year for the Buffs.
Okie State is low and lost their best player
but I still don’t see them falling off much. Anyone else agree or am I crazy?
by PenguinHawk on Oct 29, 2010 2:27 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Depends on what you mean by "falling off",
they were 6th in the Big 12 last year at 9-7 and 22-11 overall. I think they’ll be a little worse in conference and without looking at their schedule, a little worse there too.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Interpreting the chart.
This not what the teams wil have this year. This a base line, or starting point. To this you add player improvement and new players. Take kansas for example. Even if we don’t get Josh right away you can still add the plus/minus from Mario and Travis (we may actually have these numbers from two years ago.) Also you would hope that returning players +/- would increase as the got better and got more playing time.
What this chart tells me is that if Josh gets the green light the rest of the Big12 should be very afraid (as they usually are).
Agreed
The hardest part is forecasting what the guys that were on the bench last year and newcomers will contribute. KU’s bench has more talent than some team’s starting lineups. Tyshawn Taylor although somewhat a head case in the past, would have been the starting guard on almost any team last year outside of KU and KSU.
It's not that I'm lazy; it's that I just don't care. (#739)
Warren...
To me, this chart show we returned a lot but lost a lot. I expected that though when you lose 3 starters. You said we were 3rd in returning, but what are we ranked in losing? Cause by the chart, it looks like we’re pretty high up there. Not as high as OU but still.
I do have to say this though, I’ve never really been worried about KU losing players. We always rebuild. And our “rebuilding” years turn out to be 25+ wins and a Big 12 title. Well atleast under Coach Self, ha ha. But in a serious note, Coach Self recruits for the future. Our bench and redshirts would start for most schools. Seriously how many schools have 5 star recruits and a JUCO POTY either redshirting or seeing minimum minutes. That’s KU and Coach Self. I say this cause even though I’m interested in seeing how we compare to the rest of the Big 12 in what each team lost from last year, but I also believe that our loses don’t effect us as much as the rest of the Big 12.
by hawkinwihita on Oct 29, 2010 3:49 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
KU Basketball does not rebuild
It reloads!
build a damn football program, beat some ass, and get on tv more.
by Rivethead on Oct 29, 2010 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
It would be nice to see the data sorted other ways also.
It is alluded to above.
The first chart sorts by returning +/-, but it would be nice to see the data sorted by last year’s +/-, and by the +/- lost.
I realize that the returning players are what you are concerned about, but the other charts can give information about the program (year after year), which is ultimately becomes the question of concern – How will each team do this year?
Not a problem. I'll throw something up soon as a follow up.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
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