Plus/Minus Retrospective 2007-2008

by Warden11 on Jan 9, 2010 9:49 PM CST

Earlier this week, I introduced "Warden's Plus/Minus" to the RockChalkTalk community and THE WORLD. Going through the numbers for this year's team brought out some interesting thoughts and comments, especially from sherronsthebestevaimhisnumberonefanboi. Anyway, one of the main problems with the plus/minus was Sherron's number for the Cornell game. Without Sherron, the Jayhawks have a loss, plain and simple. So how could he only score slightly higher than Cole Aldrich when he carried the team to victory? The answer is, I don't know. There is an admitted "gunner" tax in the plus/minus and this led to a few comments mentioning the system favoring bigs.

Something Joe Posnanski (if you don't know who he is, just quit reading please) always like to say whenever he shares a number/stat he made up is that it has to pass the smell test. For example, if he comes up with an offensive stat in baseball and Albert Pujols isn't in the top 3 or 4, something's obviously wrong. Does the Plus/Minus pass that smell test? At first, I'd have said no because of the Sherron issue. However, in an effort to evaluate further, I took the season stats from the 2007-2008 National Champion Kansas Jayhawks and applied the Plus/Minus formula to see who it said were the biggest contributors. Lets see if those numbers back up what we know about that squad.

via nbcsportsmedia.msnbc.com

NAME	GM	FGA	FTA	PTS	TOT	AST	TO	STL	BLK	PF	Plus/Minus	Per Game
Team Totals	40	2314	852	3221	1547	721	529	356	235	706	1679	41.98
Mario Chalmers	39	318	130	498	120	169	75	97	23	99	285	7.31
Darnell Jackson	40	273	149	447	267	43	51	31	19	90	244	6.10
Brandon Rush	38	414	86	507	195	81	69	32	32	60	218	5.74
Russell Robinson	40	198	113	291	113	162	83	79	16	75	192	4.80
Darrell Arthur	40	394	114	510	250	33	75	20	53	118	165	4.13
Sherron Collins	34	251	58	315	74	105	68	39	3	54	105	3.09
Cole Aldrich	40	83	38	112	119	5	21	11	34	48	91	2.28
Sasha Kaun	40	176	122	284	154	12	32	17	49	97	89	2.23
Rodrick Stewart	33	71	28	92	74	47	27	13	2	29	73	2.21
Tyrel Reed	23	35	1	47	10	21	4	7	1	8	38	1.65
Conner Teahan	21	27	2	46	9	6	7	2	1	6	22	1.05
Jeremy Case	30	45	2	47	10	28	6	7	0	12	27	0.90
Brennan Bechard	12	9	4	14	3	2	0	0	0	1	5	0.42
Matt Kleinmann	20	7	3	7	13	2	1	0	1	5	7	0.35
Brad Witherspoon	12	4	2	2	3	4	5	0	0	0	-2	-0.17
Chase Buford	13	9	0	2	5	1	2	1	1	4	-5	-0.38

*TOT= Rebounds

I love these results. Super Mario leading the way at 7.31, such a complete player. Darnell Jackson coming in second at 6.10. Then, Brandon Rush and Russell Robinson. Pass the smell test? Is Cole just really that damn good and we don't realize it because he does so much on the glass and defensive side?

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Comments

In my mind...

this team was much deeper than reality. By the end of the deal we went maybe 7 deep. Late in the year Kaun and Cole were pretty much spot minutes with the top 6 playing the majority I would bet.

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen on Jan 10, 2010 10:54 AM CST reply actions

You're right about Cole,

but not Kaun. Kaun still played significant minutes (20+) right up to the end. Remember the Davidson game? He was our best player in that game (with 13 pts.).

Operation 40-0 is a go. Proceed to target.

by Bensa on Jan 10, 2010 12:05 PM CST up reply actions

I’d believe it, just seemed like he wasn’t as big a factor late in that season. More because he had a role to fill, accepted it and was very good in his spot.

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen on Jan 10, 2010 12:18 PM CST up reply actions

Not a deep team Denver?

With Matt ‘5 titles’ Kleinman coming off the bench? How soon we forget. :)

by hunter s. royal on Jan 10, 2010 12:39 PM CST up reply actions

the ovation he received last year at Senior day was the loudest of the day.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 10, 2010 12:46 PM CST up reply actions

Kaun saved our ass in that game

Had like 6 strait points late second half we were down 4-6 points. Sasha was big then, and while Darnell and Darell (or as I called them the double Ds) started to get more PT, Sasha was still a factor in things

by Andrew Clark on Jan 10, 2010 6:22 PM CST up reply actions

I think Cole's impact

is nearly unable to be quantified. Changing shots, getting boards, blocking shots, etc. aren’t the glory things on the basketball court, but he does all those things to perfection. Hell, you could start him every game at +10 and just let him go from there and it still might not quantify everything that he does.

The same is the exact problem with Sherron’s numbers and why you can’t seem to get them past “the smell test.” You just can’t quantify his leadership and ability to put the team on his back. This is the exact reason that I’m not a HUGE sabermetrics fan when it comes to baseball. I don’t hate the idea of it like Dayton Moore does, but I do think there are unquantifiable(word?) intangibles that are worth far more to a team than a plus or minus.

lol can't have a CKC without KC - Nicholai Khabibulin (LN21)

by Andy Edwards on Jan 10, 2010 1:38 PM CST reply actions

I'd agree for the most part with your comments, especially in basketball where tempo has a huge impact.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 10, 2010 1:45 PM CST up reply actions

Very true on the value of Cole.

His influence on the opponents under the basket is incredible, obviously defensively, but he also draws a lot of attention offensively, which makes for a lot of wide open jumpers by our shooters.

by hunter s. royal on Jan 10, 2010 2:41 PM CST up reply actions