Warden's Plus/Minus
by Warden11 on Jan 7, 2010 12:46 PM CST
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PrintFront page bump for Warden today on his snow day. I like the Warden Plus/Minus myself as it is just a little bit unique to RCT and it's the first efficiency rating I've ever taken the time to follow. Interesting indeed. Maybe we need a stat guy around here. -Denver
Snow day + playing like crap against an inferior opponent has me wanting to figure out this team. Who has produced this season? Any under the radar performances that some unique numbers can find or any crappy performances that are confirmed by my unique numbers?
Basically, what happens when I try to combine all the stats and call it "Warden's Plus/Minus". These numbers aren't that unique and many similar measures are all over the web. For example, Upon Further Review uses an "Efficiency" rating that = (Pts + Reb + Ast + Blk + Stl - Missed FG – Missed FT – TO).
Warden's Plus/Minus is very similar, the formula I'm using is Pts+Reb+Ast+Blk+Stl-FGA-FTA-TO-FL. The main difference is that I'm subtracting all shot attempts and fouls. I'm including fouls because more often than not, fouls hurt the team. The other difference is subtracting all shot attempts instead of only misses. An efficient scorer and contributor scores while taking fewer shots and I have a strong personal bias against "gunners".
First off, lets look at the Cornell game. Sherron led the way with a +10 followed by Aldrich at +8 and Tyrel at +4. The only other positive scores were from Brady, CJ, and T-Rob all checking in with a +1. Based on the emotion from the game, Sherron should have blown away all teammates in the plus/minus. But, Sherron couldn't accumulate any assists because his teammates couldn't buy a basket and Cornell took care of the ball keeping the number of steals down. Sherron also gets the "gunner" penalty. Yes, I know he saved us and he needed to be a gunner last night. Aldrich benefits hugely from points and rebounds, 13 points and 9 rebounds equals a solid night.
Negatives for the game were Xavier and Tyshawn both ending up at -3. Different paths to the same result, Xavier scores 14 points but it took him 13 shots and 9 free throws to get there. I wasn't happy last night with Taylor and feel the same today. Looking at his line though, he didn't kill the team. He had 3 assists against 1 turnover and was only 0-1 from the field. He just didn't bring anything positive to the table last night, really would have liked to see CJ some more last night.
| Morningstar | CJHenry | Johnson | McMorris | MkMorris | Robinson | Reed | XHenry | Aldrich | Collins | Taylor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cornell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 8 | 10 | -3 |
How does the team's plus/minus look so far by game?
Look at that, Cornell had the second lowest plus/minus for the season. The Memphis and UCLA games are still ugly. Not sure why the Temple number is so low, probably why I shouldn't subtract all field goal and free throw attempts.
And finally, players and their per game plus/minus average.
| Game | Morningstar | CJHenry | Johnson | McMorris | MkMorris | Robinson | Reed | XHenry | Aldrich | Collins | Taylor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hofstra | 0 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 7 | |
| Memphis | 0 | -3 | -4 | 3 | -1 | -2 | -3 | 18 | 10 | -2 | |
| Central Ark | 4 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -4 | |
| Oakland | -2 | 4 | 12 | 5 | -2 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 10 | -3 | |
| Tenn Tech | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 12 | |
| Alcorn State | 0 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 3 | 6 | |
| UCLA | 0 | -3 | 3 | 10 | -2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -1 | -1 | |
| Radford | 6 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 | -3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | |
| La Salle | 0 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | -3 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 10 | |
| Michigan | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -5 | 4 | 6 | -1 | 9 | 1 | 6 |
| California | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 12 |
| Belmont | 5 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 7 | 2 |
| Temple | 10 | 2 | -1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| Cornell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 8 | 10 | -3 |
| Season Total | 28 | 23 | 27 | 62 | 75 | 19 | 50 | 76 | 158 | 78 | 53 |
| Per Game | 5.60 | 1.64 | 1.93 | 4.43 | 5.36 | 1.36 | 3.57 | 5.43 | 11.29 | 5.57 | 3.79 |
What do we have? Cole's a stud. Even I disagree with Sherron's number. Brady scores very well on the plus/minus. He takes care of the ball, plays smart defense, grabs a few boards, and doesn't take a lot of shots. The real question I have after looking at this is, did I just solve the Morri debate? Kieffer 5.36 > McMorris 4.43
Thoughts? Disagreements?
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Like everything about Warden's Plus/Minus
except subtracting ALL FTA & FG attempts. Agree that fouls should be counted as a negative, but when we shoot only 36.7% from the field I think the gunner penalty for Sherron is too stiff when he shot over 50%. (We’re only shooting 27% without Sherron) Not sure exactly how to fix that without turning your index into a clone of The Further Review’s efficiency rating. (Perhaps Bill James is bored and checking out our site and will chime in? I know he’s a KU B-Ball fan and has done some statistical work on the safeness of leads in college games.)
maybe you could subtract a fraction of FGA and FTA
as in, the average FT shooter makes 70% (not really, just for example) so you could subtract 0.70 * FTA so that if a player shoots better than the average FT% for the game he’s rewarded, and if not it subtracts.
Well, um, actually a pretty nice little Saturday, we're going to go to Home Depot...buy some wallpaper, maybe get some flooring, stuff like that. Maybe Bed, Bath & Beyond, I don't know...I don't know if we'll have enough time.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 7, 2010 1:46 PM CST up reply actions
that's a nice spin on it
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
or
Subtract the player’s average for the season*FTA. For example, say the average FT percentage is 70%. ‘Kieff normally shoots 63% but shoots 68% in game X. Using a “national” or “team” average to compare ’Kieff’s performance dings him, but if you compare his performance to his OWN performance, there’s a (rightful) bump for that game.
same thing for FGA
You could do the same thing for FGA so that Sherron isn’t penalized AS MUCH for shooting a lot if that’s his role on the team. It would really penalize someone like Taylor, whom is more prone to taking quick, stupid shots.
If I'm going to do that, I'll use something like a national average.
If a guy is a terrible shooter, he’s not going to get a bump for being a little less terrible.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
agreed
Well, um, actually a pretty nice little Saturday, we're going to go to Home Depot...buy some wallpaper, maybe get some flooring, stuff like that. Maybe Bed, Bath & Beyond, I don't know...I don't know if we'll have enough time.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 7, 2010 3:43 PM CST up reply actions
Interesting concept,
but it creates a moving target since the value used for comparison is always changing.
Also, if the concept is valid, shouln’t it be applied across the board? If a player normally has 3 TO/g, should he be rewarded for only having one?
I like the idea of setting a std – 50% & 70%, which seem to be generally accepted values.
Big fan of the Warden Plus/Minus....
I’ve honestly never really looked into efficiency ratings too much myself but after looking at yours I’m intrigued.
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
Markieff at 5.36 a game?
Does this thing include missed layups?
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
Markieff...
has the highest FG% on the team…that’s likely why. Even though we remember the misses with him most, he did have some stretches this year where he was lights out.
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
Basically thanks to three really good games for him.
Tenn Tech: 11 pts (only 4 shots so my system loves him), 6 rebounds, and 3 assists against only 1 TO.
UCLA: 19 pts, 6 rebounds, 1 ast, and 2 steals against 0 TO’s.
La Salle: 12 pts, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 4 blocks against only 1 TO.
Those are three very good all around games.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
As I tweak this, I'm most proud of finally figuring out how to insert a table in a fanpost.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Additional Info
I know, I know. Most people hate math and wouldn’t begin to even think of looking at more than just averages, but standard deviations can be very insightful. Basically, it says how consistent is the person. It is a +/- value. The smaller the StdDev, the more confident you can be that the player is likely to a game close to their average. The bigger the number, the more likely a player is to have peaks and valleys
Morningstar CJHenry Johnson McMorris MkMorris Robinson Reed XHenry Aldrich Collins Taylor
Std Dev 3.14 2.72 2.96 4.75 5.89 4.58 4.08 5.49 5.75 5.19 5.45
Interestingly, there isn’t a tremendous difference in the consistency of the players (4 – 6), with the exception of Morningstar, CJHenry, Johnson (~3), but these latter values may have to do with less PT.
There’s more, like rankings the players, and looking at avg & stdev for the team/game in an xls that I can give you if you’d like, but even other enginerds get glassy eyed.
As a disclaimer, I survived stats at KU only b/c the TA was a classmate in another class. I didn’t have a clue about stats until I was forced to be a TA in grad school. Fortunately, when I tried to get out of it, Dr Harr just said, “Son, you don’t know anything I’m going to teach anyway. Just come, sit in class and learn.” What a great prof.
sorry about the formatting
There were more spaces when the message was being composed.
Similar to UFR
I seem to recall thinking about UFR’s post last year, and concluding that the +’s & -‘s seemed skewed in favor of bigs. W/o thinking about it a lot more again, it seems that the same thing may be going on here. This would explain to some extent why Cole’s score is so much greater than Sherron’s. I seem to recall UFR posting #’ for a lot of players, which made the trend seem more apparent – at least to me it was.
Agreed about slightly favoring the bigs.
I’d say it’s mostly because a) rebounds and b) to score points, they generally shoot fewer shots or a higher percentage. I’ll post the top 15 or so individual games with their lines later today and maybe something can be figured out that will balance things out for the guards.
Without changing too much, it might just help to judge guards and bigs on different scales. For example 5-9 for a big is an average game, 10+ would be a good game. Guards would be more around 3-6 for an average game and 7+ for a good game. (numbers for illustrative purposes only)
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
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