Front paged because the people have spoken and the race to 2000 is on...Denver
Considering North Carolina's faltering season, the race to 2000 victories, and an insurgent Big XII outside of KU and UT, I thought I'd take a look at reasonable scenarios where KU could overtake UNC for 2nd in all-time wins. (Clearly, the easiest way for us to overtake Kentucky will be when at least one season is forfeited because of dirty tricks).
As it stands before the Mizzou game, KU has 1,988 all-time wins. North Carolina sits at 1,996 career wins. It would take a collapse of breathtaking proportions for KU to win 12 games before UNC wins four, but it might be close.I'm going to lay out what I believe to be reasonable scenarios:
That leaves KU with a record of 27-1 with possible losses at Texas, K-State and Mizzou. That adds nine games to KU's all-time total, putting us at 1,997. If we win at both K-State and Texas and don't have any surprising losses, KU will be looking for all-time win 2,000 @ Mizzou the last game of the regular season.
North Carolina, however, is in an entirely different situation. The Tarheels currently sit at 12-7, with losses to Syracuse, Kentucky, Texas, Charleston, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest.
Here's how the rest of their season looks:
I'm giving Carolina the benefit of the doubt for home games, with the exception of Duke. Nonetheless, a reasonable estimation puts Carolina ending the season at 18-13 and likely not qualifying for the NCAA tournament. That 6-6 record to end the season puts Carolina at 2,002 all-time wins.
So, at the end of the regular season, KU will likely be 2 or 3 games behind North Carolina for all-time wins. If Carolina wins one and then loses in the ACC tournament, they head to the NITs with 2,003 wins. For argument's sake, let's say that KU loses in Manhattan and wins in Austin, finishing the regular season with 1,999 wins. If KU wins the Big XII tournament, they head to the NCAAs as a #1 seed with 2,002 career wins, just one shy of North Carolina.
If both teams play to form, it's likely KU will overtake North Carolina for 2nd on the all-time wins list with a win in the Sweet Sixteen.
And, as a homer of EPIC proportions, I predict that North Carolina will finish the 2009-2010 season with 2,004 all-time wins, after losing in the second round of the ACC tournament and winning one game in the NITs.
KU, on the other hand, will finish the 2009-2010 regular season at 29-2 (1,999 career wins), pick up the 2,000th win in the first round of the Big XII tournament, head to the NCAAs at 2,002 wins, and finish the season with a national championship and 2,008 career wins.