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Tempo Free +/-

Since the introduction of the +/-, a few people have mentioned they would like to see a tempo free version.  A tempo free version is intended to ignore the pace at which teams play.  There are 347 Division 1 college basketball programs and they all have coaches who attempt to recruit kids who fit their program.  Some coaches prefer to slow the game down as much as possible with a sagging defense and a patient offense (Doc Sadler) while others run up and down the court whenever possible (Texas).  In the end, Texas ends up with more possessions and more opportunities to accumulate stats, the difference makes comparing stats across teams somewhat difficult.

Star-divide

Below you'll find my first attempt at a Tempo Free +/-.  Before I get into how I did it, I do want to say that I have no clue if I what I did to get rid of the pace is correct.  If something is backwards or screwed up, let me know and I'll do what I can to fix it (or forget it all together). 

Method:  Found the teams +/- per game for the season and then used a multiplier to take all teams to 68.2 possessions per game.  Why 68.2?  According to KenPom, it is the average number of possessions for games this season.  This made sense to at the time but now I'm not sure it should be so simple.  The multiplier was the product of 68.2 divided the team's possessions per game according to Statsheet.  For example, Texas averages 76.6 possessions per game, so 68.2/76.6 = .890.  Texas averages +53.17 per game, multiply that by .890 and you get +47.32.  Data first and I'll throw out some more thoughts below.

 

 

NAME FGA FTM FTA FTMissPTSREBAST TO STL BLK PFPlus/MinusPer GameTempo Free
Kansas 1068 318 449 131 1530 737 333 227 166 116 323 1133 62.94 60.61
Baylor 979 227 339 112 1343 722 266 247 97 128 298 920 54.12 53.90
Texas 1166 307 492 185 1545 809 291 257 157 115 352 957 53.17 47.32
Missouri 1142 285 396 111 1481 675 309 255 225 94 351 925 51.39 47.43
Iowa State 1047 243 391 148 1364 692 280 245 97 98 274 817 45.39 44.03
Kansas State 1039 403 610 207 1483 728 277 285 134 89 416 764 42.44 39.43
Oklahoma 1036 283 385 102 1345 649 237 224 106 51 278 748 41.56 41.02
Texas Tech 1084 348 486 138 1407 691 252 263 129 88 373 709 39.39 36.12
Colorado 941 358 468 110 1394 518 262 236 150 47 393 691 38.39 37.51
Texas A&M 979 342 528 186 1318 673 221 213 118 67 346 673 37.39 37.17
Oklahoma State 1060 276 390 114 1343 674 218 201 111 48 352 667 37.06 36.36
Nebraska 965 223 348 125 1228 584 270 209 136 61 327 653 36.28 38.06

 

For the visual learners:

 

Thoughts:

  • Surprising to see how fast Texas Tech plays, did Bobby Knight coached teams play faster than I remembered or is this Pat Knight's own doing?
  • K-State fans won't be impressed with the +/-, just not a good system for their team.  They foul a lot, turn the ball over quite a bit, don't shoot particularly well, and miss a lot of free throws.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out with them.
  • Oklahoma and Iowa State have me questioning everything I just typed.  Neither teams fouls a lot though and that helps them here, it will also help them in close games.

Like I said earlier, this made some sense to me at the time I was doing it.  What does everyone else think?  I'm more of a fan of the game by game +/- because I think it can highlight some things that are missed when looking at a box score.

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at face value...

it definitely seems to make a lot of sense to me.

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen on Jan 23, 2010 1:08 PM CST reply actions  

Everybody but Nebraska goes down with the Tempo adjustment.

Admittedly, I’m no math whiz – does that mean the whole Big 12 plays above the national average of possessions?

lol can't have a CKC without KC - Nicholai Khabibulin (LN21)

by Andy Edwards on Jan 23, 2010 1:08 PM CST reply actions  

Didn't notice that when I was doing it, but I'll check it.

I do remember Nebraska averages 65 possessions a game.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 23, 2010 1:11 PM CST up reply actions  

no.

I know Colorado for one doesn’t.

Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog
You know you like college hockey

by fetch9 on Jan 23, 2010 1:15 PM CST up reply actions  

according to statsheet, Colorado averages 69.8 possession per 40 minutes.

KenPom has national average at 68.2

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 23, 2010 1:43 PM CST up reply actions  

after checking, it looks like the numbers are correct.

Baylor plays just above the average at 68.3 possessions per game.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 23, 2010 1:15 PM CST up reply actions  

And whether the reference point of 68.2 is correct or not

is not so important as that there is a reference point at all. Just equalizing in terms of teams’ possessions will do the trick. You could think of it as dividing by a team’s # of possessions to get a +/- per possession, then multiply by some number (68.2 in this case) to bring the number back to a value closer to the range of the original +/-.

Conversation b/t Special baseball operations consultant Zapp Brannigan and GM Dayton Moore: "...but paper covers rock and rock crushes scissors...we have a conundrum. Get me some paper, a rock, and some scissors."

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 23, 2010 3:16 PM CST reply actions  

but you think the overall idea here is sound?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 23, 2010 3:55 PM CST up reply actions  

yes, definitely

i should have been more clear on that. the 68.2 is arbitrary (IMO), but it is also the best number you have available.

Conversation b/t Special baseball operations consultant Zapp Brannigan and GM Dayton Moore: "...but paper covers rock and rock crushes scissors...we have a conundrum. Get me some paper, a rock, and some scissors."

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 25, 2010 5:41 PM CST up reply actions  

I like it Warden

the next thing Id do is to use eFG rather than straight FG%.

And maybe something that weights it based on importance, ie rebounding being more important than getting to the line

Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog
You know you like college hockey

by fetch9 on Jan 23, 2010 4:46 PM CST reply actions  

damn Fetch...

are you a math major? By the time you get done with Warden and his plus/minus there are only going to be two people in the world who can figure it out.

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen on Jan 23, 2010 4:56 PM CST up reply actions  

As far as field goals, I only use FGA.

So in a way, it is more eFG than FG%. A made three will count as a +2 and a made two pointer will only count as a +1.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 23, 2010 10:57 PM CST up reply actions  

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