Xavier Henry= JR Giddens 2.0?

by Warden11 on Jan 17, 2010 9:01 AM CST

Yesterday, this comment was posted in KC's post-game thread about Xavier Henry:

I am ashamed to say this but his game, right now, is really reminding me of JR Giddens. Giddens was a hyped freshman who came in early, played the wing and knocked down a lot of threes. Then, after the early success, he neglected his game and just became a spot up shooter.

It's a fair comment to make, especially considering the shooting slump that Xavier has been in the last few games. However, as KGRTC noted in reply to the comment, Xavier was the second leading scorer against Texas Tech with 14 points. He also noted the discrepancy in their stats throughout their freshman years as proof that there is no comparison between the two. As we all know, college basketball schedules get tougher as the year progresses, you start conference play and the Radford's disappear. KC wondered if the numbers would be closer if we only looked at them up to this point in the year. Since we're living in 2010, that won't take much work at all.

Method: I started out going by dates, meaning that I was using January 16th as the cutoff dates for the stat comparisons. Ran into a problem when the 2003-2004 team had only played 12 games before January 16th. This year's team has already played 17, so I switched and just took the first 17 games for each player. Their numbers from the box scores were thrown into a table and the per game averages are listed along the bottom row. I also added in the Plus/Minus at the end, for any who might be interested.

Game	Min	Pts	FGM	FGA	FG%	FTM	FTA	FT%	3PTM	3PTA	3PT%	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	Plus/Minus
Hofstra	24	27	8	12	66.7	6	6	100	5	8	62.5	5	2	1	1	0	2	22
Memphis	32	11	3	11	27.3	5	6	83.3	0	2	0	6	0	3	0	4	2	2
Central Ark	23	12	4	8	50	2	2	100	2	3	66.7	3	3	0	0	1	2	7
Oakland	32	19	8	11	72.7	0	0		3	5	60	5	2	0	0	1	2	12
Tenn Tech	22	15	6	12	50	3	3	100	0	3	0	3	5	4	0	1	2	12
Alcorn St	21	18	6	12	50	1	2	50	5	10	50	3	0	4	1	3	0	10
UCLA	32	16	5	9	55.6	2	2	100	4	7	57.1	5	1	0	1	4	3	7
Radford	28	13	5	9	55.6	2	4	50	1	2	50	3	1	2	3	1	1	9
La Salle	29	31	10	15	66.7	7	9	77.8	4	5	80	4	2	2	1	3	4	16
Michigan	34	15	6	15	40	1	2	50	2	8	25	1	1	2	0	1	2	0
California	31	12	5	10	50	1	2	50	1	3	33.3	8	3	1	0	3	1	9
Belmont	25	8	3	9	33.3	1	3	33.3	1	5	20	4	5	2	0	3	1	4
Temple	24	15	4	8	50	6	6	100	1	2	50	2	1	0	0	2	2	6
Cornell	34	14	3	13	23.1	5	9	55.6	3	5	60	6	1	4	0	3	3	2
Tennessee	31	10	3	7	42.9	3	4	75	1	4	25	5	0	1	1	2	3	4
Nebraska	26	6	2	8	25	0	0		2	6	33.3	4	2	0	1	2	3	0
Texas Tech	26	14	4	11	36.4	4	4	100	2	6	33.3	2	5	1	0	1	1	9
Average	27.88	15.06	5.00	10.59	47.22	2.88	3.76	77.00	2.18	4.94	44.00	4.06	2.00	1.59	0.53	2.06	2.00	7.71

Game	Min	Pts	FGM	FGA	FG%	FTM	FTA	FT%	3PTM	3PTA	3PT%	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	Plus/Minus
JR Giddens
Chattanooga	15	5	2	5	40	0	0	0	1	4	25	2	2	0	1	0	4	1
Mich State	20	8	4	7	57.1	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	1	2	0	1	2	4
TCU	27	12	5	7	71.4	0	0	0	2	4	50	1	2	0	1	1	1	7
Stanford	17	2	0	4	0	2	2	100	0	3	0	6	0	0	1	1	2	2
Ft Hays	23	12	5	11	45.5	0	0	0	2	6	33.3	10	2	0	2	3	1	11
Oregon	30	18	6	13	46.2	2	2	100	4	8	50	7	1	1	1	1	5	9
UCSB	22	15	6	14	42.9	0	0	0	3	9	33.3	2	3	1	0	2	1	4
Nevada	24	7	2	7	28.6	2	2	100	1	4	25	4	0	1	0	1	4	0
Binghamton	25	16	5	9	55.6	4	5	80	2	6	33.3	7	1	3	0	3	0	14
Villanova	19	7	3	5	60	0	1	0	1	3	33.3	0	0	0	2	1	4	-2
Colorado	33	15	6	10	60	0	0	0	3	6	50	2	1	0	0	1	4	3
K-State	16	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	-3
Texas A&M	25	14	5	7	71.4	0	2	0	4	5	80	3	1	0	1	1	1	8
Richmond	25	7	3	6	50	0	0	0	1	3	33.3	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
Colorado	26	13	5	8	62.5	0	0	0	3	5	60	8	1	0	1	1	1	13
K-State	21	5	2	7	28.6	0	0	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	0	0	2	-2
Iowa St	23	9	3	10	30	0	0	0	3	9	33.3	3	1	1	0	0	2	2
Average	23.00	9.71	3.65	7.82	0.47	0.59	0.82	0.71	1.82	5.06	0.36	3.53	1.12	0.53	0.65	1.06	2.24	4.18

And the per game averages side by side:

	Min	Pts	FGM	FGA	FG%	FTM	FTA	FT%	3PTM	3PTA	3PT%	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	Plus/Minus
Xavier Henry	27.88	15.06	5	10.59	47.22	2.88	3.76	77	2.18	4.94	44	4.06	2	1.59	0.53	2.06	2	7.71
JR Giddens	23	9.71	3.65	7.82	0.47	0.59	0.82	0.71	1.82	5.06	0.36	3.53	1.12	0.53	0.65	1.06	2.24	4.18

Conclusion: Xavier is a more complete player than Giddens through the first half of their freshman seasons (read: better). Xavier has the edge in points per game, FT%, 3 PT%, rebounds, assists, steals, and the plus/minus. Giddens has a slight advantage in turnovers and blocks. The difference in free throw attempts is a pretty clear indicator that these guys have different games, Xavier getting to the line four times as often as Giddens shows that he does go to the basket and draw fouls, something Giddens avoided like the plague unless it was a 1 on 0 fast break.

Now a quick comparison to someone we all hope to compare X with at the end of his career:

	Min	Pts	FGM	FGA	FG%	FTM	FTA	FT%	3PTM	3PTA	3PT%	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	Plus/Minus
Xavier Henry	27.88	15.06	5	10.59	47.22	2.88	3.76	77	2.18	4.94	44	4.06	2	1.59	0.53	2.06	2	7.71
Brandon Rush	29.18	13.29	4.94	9.71	51	2	2.71	74	1.41	2.76	51	5.47	2.47	0.65	0.82	2.47	1.18	8.65

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Comments

I dunno...

Lets not forget that Giddens played pretty damn well his frosh year, it was his soph year he didn’t progress and really fell apart. With X, we probably aren’t going to have a sophomore year so maybe its a mood point. Its like a cow’s opinion. Doesn’t matter.

by Andrew Clark on Jan 17, 2010 12:55 PM CST reply actions

those stats are both from their first 17 games in their freshman years,

Xavier has him beat.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 17, 2010 1:03 PM CST up reply actions

Xavier is also playing more minutes and taking more shots

Their field goal percentage is identical, although X shoots better from three. Overall, I think X is certainly a better player, but he is playing more and more involved with the offense, at least early on in the noncon he was.

by Andrew Clark on Jan 17, 2010 1:13 PM CST up reply actions

No.

Give this up. This is stupid. I will not stand for this. Comparing Giddens to X is like comparing David Dejesus to Ichiro Suzuki or Carlos Beltran.

"Here are our top priorities: recruit, beat Missouri, recruit, win the North, recruit, win the Big 12, and in most cases if you win the Big 12 then you're playing for a National Championship. And then we're going to recruit."

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Jan 18, 2010 3:31 AM CST up reply actions

I already said Xavier was a better player

My point, if you can step down from your eiffel-tower riviling high horse, is that Xavier is being asked to do a lot more in our offense than Giddens was too (and for good reason).

by Andrew Clark on Jan 18, 2010 8:35 AM CST up reply actions

I looked at their overall stats last night

and Giddens was actually a better shooter than X. Course, that was Giddens’s whole season, and only half a season for X.

Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog
The Olympics are coming!

by fetch9 on Jan 17, 2010 1:31 PM CST reply actions

No, he's not.

Look at that stats again. Especially notice Points Per Shot for their freshmen seasons. X is about 1.5 times the player that Giddens was at 18.

Stop this silliness now.

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Jan 18, 2010 3:32 AM CST up reply actions

Giddens: 59.9 eFG as a Frosh

Xavier: 57.5 eFG so far

Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog
The Olympics are coming!

by fetch9 on Jan 18, 2010 11:07 AM CST up reply actions

LOL, Kenny is gonna get pissed off.

lol can't have a CKC without KC - Nicholai Khabibulin (LN21)

by Andy Edwards on Jan 18, 2010 4:46 PM CST up reply actions

Xavier and Giddens

I made the comment about the two and I expect Xavier to be much better than Giddens but I was struck by how his game has digressed. Nice analysis here and a good reminder that Xavier is better than Giddens as a frosh.

"When you play happy, good things will happen"-Elvis Andrus

by pblack on Jan 17, 2010 7:12 PM CST reply actions

Damn work let you beat me to doing this.

I always find ideas in comments like that one.

Good stuff.

lol can't have a CKC without KC - Nicholai Khabibulin (LN21)

by Andy Edwards on Jan 17, 2010 7:51 PM CST reply actions

something you could do if you get bored is look at how much the schedules have expanded in the years since 2000.

I was shocked to see the 2003-04 team had only played 12 games through January 16. That’s five games behind this year’s team. It shouldn’t have been that shocking, considering there are teams entering the tournament with 34 or 35 games played already and those games have to fit in somewhere.

Just not sure if you can build a post around anything meaningful with that.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 17, 2010 8:03 PM CST up reply actions

I almost think...

that the late 90’s early 00’s were some of the biggest schedules ever if I remember right. That was back in the day when those early season Tourney’s were basically a free for all. Doesn’t seem too far off today, but it does seem that was at or near the peak.

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen on Jan 17, 2010 8:11 PM CST up reply actions

This is like saying Kevin Garnett was Lamar Odom 2.0.

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Jan 18, 2010 3:34 AM CST reply actions

You did read the conclusion, right?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 18, 2010 7:57 AM CST up reply actions

What are the chances Xavier stay at least another year?

I saw KU Grad said it probably isn’t going to happen, but if you had to but a number on it. KU has had good luck in the past. Just curious.

by WillieWannabe on Jan 19, 2010 3:38 PM CST reply actions

I'll say 50/50 if his current trend continues.

The thing with basketball is that I don’t think there is any sport in which you can make your stock skyrocket the way you can in the NCAA tourney. Players who have good tournaments often end up jumping up everybody’s draft board and making the jump.

If Xavier plays to the potential he has and his performance helps lead Kansas to a Final Four or further, then I think the odds of an early departure increase immensely.

The biggest thing with him that’s different from the guys we’ve been lucky with in the past is that he’s made it pretty clear he wants to go to the NBA as quickly as possible.

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen on Jan 19, 2010 3:51 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah, however

If his draft stock isn’t great this year and he would return for one more season at KU, the team will be without Collins and likely Aldrich. Henry will be asked to score more and will be the bona fide option A for the offense in terms of scoring.

I don’t think its likely and I’d say right meow his odds of staying are about 25%, but if his draft stock isn’t high I think the make-up of next year’s team would help entice him for one more year, because a strong performance in 10-11 would assuredly lead to a top-5 pick.

However based on this same reasoning I thought Chalmers was going to return for his senior year to be a bigger focal point in the offense (and I think he would have had he not made THE SHOT, that lifted his draft stock up at least 6 projected spots if not more). Can you imagine if last year we had Chalmers and Sherron both back in the backcourt? Our team very well could have been in the final 4 again

by Andrew Clark on Jan 19, 2010 7:42 PM CST up reply actions

I know he got hurt

But think about Griffin from Oklahomie. Despite the injury, he likely would have been a top20 pick out of OU his frosh year, maybe top 15 or higher (NBA execs are insane and will take shots on potential).

He returns for his sophomore year as the unquestionable offensive star, has a good year and is the unquestionable number one draft pick. Coming back likely made him another 20 million guaranteed dollars at the minimum. Ya never know…

by Andrew Clark on Jan 19, 2010 7:44 PM CST up reply actions

I'd agree with the 75/25 split

if he plays well enough to be assured a first-round draft spot, then i bet he’s gone.

the other thing to keep in mind is what the respective drafts look like. i don’t know, but there could hypothetically be a loaded draft one year and a watered-down one the next.

Conversation b/t Special baseball operations consultant Zapp Brannigan and GM Dayton Moore: "...but paper covers rock and rock crushes scissors...we have a conundrum. Get me some paper, a rock, and some scissors."

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 20, 2010 2:10 PM CST up reply actions