Kansas Baseball Notes. Where the Hawks stand after half a season.
by James Quinn on Apr 6, 2009 8:39 AM CDT
in Baseball
21 comments
After winning their first three conference games Kansas lost five of their next six. This dropped them all the way down to a tie for 7th place in the Big-12. Only the top eight teams make the Big-12 tournament so Kansas has no saftey cushion left from their sweep of Texas. On the positive side all three teams Kansas has played had been predicted to finish near the top of the Big-12. Oklahoma State comes to Lawrence next weekend and the Cowboys are plenty tough, but after that the schedule should ease up a bit. OSU is tied with KU at 4-5 in the Big-12 but the Cowboys have the best RPI at #12 so don't let their conference record fool you into thinking they are not a terrifying team.
Current Big-12 Standings
| Big 12 | Pct | Overall | RPI | |
| Oklahoma | 6-3 | .667 | 25-7 | 28 |
| Baylor | 7-5 | .583 | 20-8 | 14 |
| Texas A&M | 7-5 | .583 | 20-11 | 25 |
| Kansas State | 5-4 | .556 | 24-8 | 40 |
| Texas | 6-6 | .500 | 20-8 | 17 |
| Texas Tech | 6-6 | .500 | 14-19 | 107 |
| Oklahoma State | 4-5 | .444 | 21-10 | 12 |
| Kansas | 4-5 | .444 | 18-12 | 60 |
| Missouri | 5-7 | .417 | 15-16 | 55 |
| Nebraska | 4-8 | .333 | 16-14-1 | 66 |
Right now Kansas is on the cold side of the NCAA bubble. Kansas will need to win about 13 Big-12 games and continue to take care of business during mid-week games to attract attention at the end of the season.
Check out Big-12 Hardball for weekly updates on all conference teams. You can take part in a weekly Pick 'em contest at the site. Leave your predictions each Friday, gather up praise or shame each Monday.
More KU Baseball notes after the jump. Former Jayhawks in Pro Ball, Nick Faunce's journal, a nice story about the Yips and KU pitching and defense.
No former Jayhawks will be on MLB opening day rosters this year. The Rangers designated Travis Metcalf for assignment to remove him from their 40 man roster on Saturday. During the next ten days the Rangers might trade him. If he is not traded he can be released or optioned to AAA. The Phillies placed Mike Zagurski on the 15-day disabled list. Hopefully Mike will be ready to pitch again before the all-star break. Earlier in the month the Pirates sent Tom Gorzelanny down to their AAA club.
Nick Faunce has been posting a journal throughout the season at the KU baseball home page. It is worth checking out. His March 31st entry about how he and some teammates had to help the grounds crew tame the field tarp on a windy Kansas day is a good read. The Hawks had to ask the visiting Northern Colorado players to lend a hand.
For local Lawrence baseball news, last year Lawrence High pitcher Andy Urban had the "Yips" so bad he could hardly play catch with his father in the back yard. On Friday he threw a no-hitter against Shawnee Mission North. Nice story here.
And in case you were wondering, the average score of an NCAA D-I baseball game this year is 9-4. On average NCAA D-I teams give up 6.8 runs per game. That number really brings KU's outstanding pitching and defense this year into context. Even after the massacre on Sunday Kansas is only surrendering 4.9 runs per game against D-I opponents, almost two runs under the national average.
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Based on projections
who is likely to move up or down in those current Big 12 standings? Tech looks like the first obvious choice.
by I need more Esteban on Apr 6, 2009 9:57 AM CDT reply actions
Hi Esteban,
It is a weird conference season. Somehow Tech beat aTm this weekend. I didn’t see that coming at all. And K-State seemed to have fallen into their annual collapse drive two weeks agao and then they swept Nebraska in Lincoln this weekend. No one, not even God, saw that coming.
Just my guess, but I think Nebraska, KU and TTU are the most likely to miss the tourney this year. I think Oklahoma is outperforming its talent and their season will even out. I think Texas A&M and Baylor are the top two teams. That is all I got right now.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
and
I think the Jayhawks have a legit chance at finishing above Tech, Mizzou and Nebraska
and i also think KSt. will come back to earth a bit but finish somewhere around 6th.
I think Baylor or A&M win the league this year
Ditto
I actually opened up a diary at B12HB on this topic. Then I came over here and saw your comments. Turns out we are pretty well together on these predictions. Although I am a bit more of a K-State believer now, and a bit less optimistic about the Hawks. I still like KU’s chances to make the conference tournament. I’d give them a 65% of chance of making the Big-12 tourny now, and about a 35% chance of making the big dance. But I am a bit down right now. Those numbers might change quite a bit by this time next week.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
my guess
here is my guess at this point for final Big 12 standings
Baylor will finish 17-10 or 18-9
Texas A&M will finish 16-11 or 17-10
Texas will finish 15-12 or 16-11
Oklahoma will finish 15-12 or 16-11
Oklahoma State will finish 14-13 or 13-14
Kansas State will finish 14-13 or 13-14
Kansas will finish 13-14 or 14-13
Texas Tech will finish 13-14 or 12-15
Missouri will finish 13-14 or 12-15
Nebraska will finish 9-18 or 8-19
these games against Okie St are very important this weekend. If we could sneak 2 it would help tremendously later in the year so we wont have so much dire pressure against Mizzou and K-State. I think Okie St, Tx Tech, Mizzou, Kansas and Kansas St. could all be in for a battle in the end.
Nice write-up JQ
Nick Faunce’s journal was worth checking out. Looks like the Big 12 will be very competitive. Let’s hope the hawks pitching holds up.
by hunter s. royal on Apr 6, 2009 12:24 PM CDT reply actions
Hi Hunter,
Yeah, he does publish some interesting stories. Seems like a smart guy. I understand he is going to medical school after this year.
Big-12 baseball is one slow walk through hell each year. I think the conference is tougher in baseball than it is in football and basketball even, and that says a lot.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Boyd's Nation RPI-needs list
Boyd’s World is a gold star web site. A guy, I do not know his real name, has maintained it for about seven or eight years. It is a gold mine for NCAA baseball statistics and analysis. Around this time each year he starts pumping out information of aid to college baseball fans trying to gage what the 64 team tournament field is likely to look like. Here is his first “RPI-needs” list for 2009.
Thanks Boyd! And God bless you. Seriously. You make the world a better place.
How to read this chart. The columns give the likely record needed over remaining games to reach certain RPI ranking levels.
The “8” column is the record likely needed to finish in the RPI top-8 and, presumably, host a super regional. Please note, apparently SEC teams only need a top-20 finish to get one of these highly advantageous slots. West Coast and North Eastern teams need a finish in the top three or four. That seems to be the pattern in my eyes. Yes, I am feed up enough with the selection committee’s pandering to the SEC that I make an issue of it to the point of an obsession. A super regional host slot gives the team home field advantage all the way through to the College World Series, a huge boost to a team’s chances of making it to Omaha.
The “16” column is to finish in the RPI top-16 and presumably, get a regional host slot. Regional host slots give a team home field advantage through the first round of the tournament when the field is reduced from 64 to 16.
Teams that finish in the RPI top-32 probably will get an at large. Teams that finish between 32 and 45 are bubble teams of varying strength.
Sorry, no fancy formatting here. Name – Current RPI – 8 – 16 – 32 – 45 – Remaining opponent’s winning %
Baylor 14 20-2 15-7 10-12 8-14 0.609
Kansas 58 -— -— 21-4 19-6 0.533
Kansas State 40 -— 21-3 16-8 14-10 0.566
Missouri 54 -— 26-0 20-6 18-8 0.561
Nebraska 57 -— 24-0 19-5 17-7 0.556
Oklahoma 22 22-2 16-8 11-13 9-15 0.618
Oklahoma State 12 22-3 16-9 11-14 9-16 0.605
Texas 17 22-1 17-6 12-11 10-13 0.605
Texas A&M 29 21-3 16-8 11-13 8-16 0.664
Texas Tech 106 -— -— 23-1 20-4 0.595
So, no Big-12 teams look good for a super regional. A&M, OSU, OU and BU all look okay for regional host duties.
UT – Looking good for an at-large.
KSU – About an even chance of dancing as long as they continue to play at current level.
NU, MU & KU – All with little margin left.
TTU – practically DOA for an NCAA bid. They will need to win in Bricktown if they want to dance.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
The skinny on KU
Kansas can only “safely” lose four more games this year. If they lose more than six games they will probably fall outside the RPI top-45 and thus have a less than even shot at a tournment invitation.
KU does not have an easy path to an at-large bid.
I could bring up my dislike of the RPI system here, and how KU’s remaining games vs. Iowa and Chicago State are going to really hurt the team’s chances of making the tournament win or lose. But the system is what it is and KU has to work within it to keep playing ball into June.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Can only lose 4-6 more games or they won't make it?
That is disappointing, didn’t the conference season just begin? Seems like the teams in great conferences should get more room for error than this.
by I need more Esteban on Apr 6, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions
It isn't quite as clear cut, but Boyd's chart paints a rough picture of the situation.
Kansas might be able to lose seven or eight games and sneak it. Or they might only lose five games and be left out. The baseball selection comittee makes some crazy choices each year. Last year they pandered to the SEC and let in four weak teams with “legacies.” I’m sure the great legacy of Arkansas and Mississippi baseball made the kids at Missouri State and Charlestown feel a lot better about getting screwed. Yeah, I still am unreasonably bitter about all this. I see it as part of the whole “good old boy” network rewarding “breeding” instead of merit. Didn’t the French Revolution settle most of that crap two hundred years ago?
Anyway, KU doesn’t have a lot of margin for error left. I think their best bet is to finish 5th or 6th in the conference and make a run in Bricktown. Even if they do not win the tournament a strong finish and an RPI in the 40’s will give them a good chance of getting an invite. KU has some nice wins over RPI top-50 teams already and that goes a long way with the comittee I understand.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
yes
if KU can only lose 4 more games then we have no chance
but im more interested in taking baby steps and i want us to play in bricktown
but then again, im a coach and very realistic about things
:)
Aman is a bit more pessimistic than I am.
But he is normally more right than I am as well. So there that is.
We both seem to agree that the 2010 Hawks are going to be fierce. Whatever the ’09 Hawks do will be an unexpected gift. I am loving this team six days out of seven.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
pessimism
I wouldnt say im a pessimist at all. Im a coach and an official.
I would say im more of a realist. Kansas isnt a historic program and we will be below the middle of the Big 12 so they usually leave bubble teams of our caliber out of the tourney.
BUT
in years past we dont even make the Big 12 tournament.
in which case we all know what can happen in that
:)
so baby steps of improvement
we are SOOOOOOOO close to being legit, we just gotta win the ones we play good enough to win!
which has been a LOT of our losses thus far.
Dreaming of a perfect 2010
Starting pitching options
Wally Marciel
Andy Marks
T. J. Walz
Lee Ridenhour
Shaeffer Hall
Bullpen
Cameron Selik
Brett Bochy
Travis Blankenship
Brett Bollman
Jordan Jakubov
Colton Murray
1B – Zac Elgie
2B – Robby Price
3B – Tony Thompson
SS – David Narodowski
OF – Brian Heere
OF – Jason Brunansky
OF – Jimmy Waters
OF – Jake Marasco
OF – Casey Lytle
C – Joe Lincoln
If Hall and Narodowski stay, and Marks, Marciel and Jakubov get healty, that team looks nasty as all hell on paper. There is just enough offense there and that pitching staff might be one of the ten best in the nation.
Okay, I’m a fan, but with a few breaks Omaha is not out of the question next year.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
This and next years baseball team
I think that this baseball team, being young like the KU basketball team, will have both great moments and disastrous moments this season. Next year our pitching could rival that of the Longhorns when Marciel, Jakubov, Taylor and Marks return from injury, Paul Smyth will graduate and the only other pitcher we might lose to the draft is Hall. Even he may stay on for 2010. I don’t know who all the new recruits are but I know there are a couple of strong arms coming in from high school. My biggest concern for next year is catcher. I would not like to lose Narodowski or Price either, but was pleased with how Stanfield jumped right in and had some good at bats considering his limited experience.
wow
yes, that is a nice squad, for sure!
but i wouldnt call out Omaha quite yet
maybe winning a regional would be something to make a goal
:)
we are still 1-2 years away from being competitive in our conference.
Any news on baseball recruits?
Not yet Sweed,
I forgot to ask Coach Price last week. I’ll pass on any news I gather on the incoming players.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
It's flowing
The testocerone is flowing for sure. Must be opening day feelings of optimism around Hoglund Park. The team is showing spunk and signs of brilliance but to have several seniors and juniors watching the rookies perform is not a good sign. The collar is tightening for some and we shall see how this affects this young team. It has come back from being down, a tribute to the coaches. Coach Szepf making a difference and an impact with younger players. The league clearly is not what it used to be. Parity is here. The teams are bunched up. Kansas and K State are not the doormats anymore. Each weekend tells us a little more of what we have. This is not a veteran ballclub and wont act like one. Six more series and six more big 12 wins is my bet.
I hope they beat that prediction.
Only six more Big-12 wins.
Kansas hosts OSU and NU plus two games with KSU still. I think they will get either 4 or 5 wins there.
Kansas travels to OU, TTU and MU, plus one more at KSU. I think they will get 3 or 4 still on the road.
So my hopes are for 7 to 9 more wins. Kansas probably will need 11 total wins to make the Big-12 tournament, so they need to win at least seven more there. I think if they only win six more they will not make Bricktown.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
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