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Rock Chalk Talk's Bracket Projection

Everyone else is doing it.

And, with my massive ego and obscene amount of basketball watched, I figure I'm just as qualified as any to put out my own opinion.

So, I figured I'd put my own bracket together. Now, I'm terrible at html table thing-a-ma-jigs, so it won't be anything like that. I'll just list them out. But, the information will be the same.

As always, disagreement and criticism is encouraged. The bracket and, more specifically, the bubble is one of the most hotly-contested debates in all of sport. Naturally, there is going to be massive disagreement. That's fine.

And, obviously, much of this can change. We've still got, at time of publishing, plenty of action to go. Mississippi State could come in and snatch away a bid in the SEC Final, which would change the bracket. Florida State's seeding depends on their ACC Championship finish, just as Ohio State's and Purdue's could change in the Big 10/11 Final.

But, as of Sunday morning, here is how I would do the Tournament if I was the one-man Selection Committee. Man, that'd be the life.

All actual content after the jump...

 

Star-divide

Just so all of you know, this is assuming the following end results on Sunday. None of the results should matter too much, although a Mississippi State win would take away an at-large bid. Here is what I am expecting:

Tennessee over Mississippi State

Duke over Florida State

Stephen F. Austin over UT-San Antonio

Purdue over Ohio State

 

With all of that said, here's the best I could come up with.

 

Seeds

Obviously, some of these will be wrong. Towards the end, I kind of just half-assed the difference between a 15-seed and a 16-seed. Hopefully I at least get some of them correct.

Note: Remember, there are certain rules any bracketologist must follow, most notably to avoid regular season matchups at all costs in the first two rounds, and to prohibit teams from the same conference meeting up until the Elite Eight.

Seed South Midwest East West
1 Louisville (Big East) Pittsburgh UNC UCONN
2 Duke (ACC) Memphis (C-USA) Michigan State Oklahoma
3 Missouri (Big 12) Syracuse Kansas Villanova
4 Wake Florida State Purdue (Big 10) Washington
5 UCLA Gonzaga (WCC) Arizona State Illinois
6 West Virginia Tennessee (SEC) LSU Xavier
7 BYU Texas Utah (MWC) Clemson
8 Ohio State Cal Marquette Butler
9 Siena (MAAC) Texas A&M Oklahoma State Boston College
10 Wisconsin Michigan Dayton Minnesota
11 Temple (A-10) San Diego State USC (Pac 10) Arizona
12 VCU (CAA) Cleveland State (Horizon) St. Mary's Utah State (WAC)
13 Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) Northern Iowa (MVC) Akron (MAC) North Dakota State (Summit)
14 Binghamton (A-East) Cornell (Ivy) Robert Morris (NEC) American (Patriot)
15 Morgan State (MEAC) East Tennessee State (A-Sun) Stephen F. Austin (Southland) Portland State (Big Sky)
16 Play-In Game Morehead State (OVC) Pacific/CS-Northridge (Big West) Radford (Big South)

Play-In Game will be: Alabama State (SWAC) vs. Chattanooga (Southern)

Pods

I'm not doing mileage trackers, or anything. This is just the best thing I can come up with. Hopefully nothing blows up in my face.

 

Dayton

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (16) Morehead State (OVC)

(8) California vs. (9) Texas A&M

(1) Louisville vs. (16) Play-In Game -- Chattanooga (Southern) vs. Alabama State (SWAC)

(8) Ohio State vs. (9) Siena (MAAC)

Greensboro

(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Pacific/CS-Northridge (Big West)

(8) Marquette vs. (9) Oklahoma State

(2) Duke (ACC) vs. (15) Morgan State (MEAC)

(7) BYU vs. (10) Wisconsin

Philadelphia

(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Radford (Big South)

(8) Butler vs. (9) Boston College

(3) Villanova vs. (14) American (Patriot)

(6) Xavier vs. (11) Arizona

Kansas City

(2) Memphis vs. (15) East Tennessee State (A-Sun)

(7) Texas vs. (10) Michigan

(2) Oklahoma vs. (15) Portland State (Big Sky)

(7) Clemson vs. (10) Minnesota

Boise

(3) Missouri vs. (14) Binghamton (America East)

(6) West Virginia vs. (11) Temple (A-10)

(3) Kansas vs. (14) Cornell (Ivy)

(6) LSU vs. (11) USC (Pac 10)

Portland

(4) Wake Forest vs. (13) Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

(5) UCLA vs. (12) VCU (CAA)

(4) Washington vs. (13) North Dakota State (Summit)

(5) Illinois vs. (12) Utah State (WAC)

Miami

(3) Syracuse vs. (14) Robert Morris (NEC)

(6) Tennessee (SEC) vs. (11) San Diego State

(4) Florida State vs. (13) Northern Iowa (MVC)

(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) Cleveland State (Horizon)

Minneapolis

(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

(7) Utah (MWC) vs. (10) Dayton

(4) Purdue (Big 10) vs. (13) Akron (MAC)

(5) Arizona State vs. (12) St. Mary's

 

Bubble Talk

For most of the at-larges, it was a piece of cake deciding who went in and who went out. I was mostly just concerned with bracketing and seeding and not breaking any rules, until I hit a snag. There was 3 at-large bids to give out, and 6 just-about-equal teams. At least to me. Obviously, I had to make a decision, eventually. But, it took me about an hour to completely decide. In the end, as you could tell from above, here was what I said:

 

Last 3 In:

St. Mary's

Arizona

San Diego State

 

Last 4 Out:

Creighton

Maryland

Penn State

New Mexico

 

New Mexico wasn't seriously considered, but the other three were. Definitely. At times, I actually had Creighton and Maryland and Penn State as the three in, if only for a bfrief second. The actual teams in changed in my head at least 100 times before I eventually settled on the Aztecs, Gaels and Wildcats. In the end, I thought that those three were the three best teams left. If they were to play a round-robin, and play everyone else, I think that the three I put in would have the best records.

But that wasn't all. Maryland's despicable 7-9 record in the ACC, highlighted by their embarrassing loss to Virginia, along with their non-conference loss to Morgan State did them in, for me. Their wins over Michigan State and North Carolina are both awesome, sure, but they just lost too many games, and had very little depth beyond that. And if you compare them to Arizona, for example, the Wildcats dwarf them. Here is a quick comparison:

Arizona Maryland
Record 19-13 (9-9) 20-12 (7-9)
1-25 W's* vs. Zaga^, vs. KU, vs. U-Dub, vs. UCLA vs. Mich. St.^, vs. UNC, vs. Wake^
26-50 W's* vs. USC, vs. SDSU, vs. USC, vs. Wazzu vs. Michigan, vs. Miami,

101+ L's*

-- vs. Morgan State
Road Record 2-9 2-6

* All rankings are KenPom's rankings, not RPI.

^ Denotes neutral floor victory.

Why, again, is Maryland considered "in" over Arizona? Arizona has a better conference record. Arizona has more Top 25 wins (4 to 3), more 26-50 wins (4 to 2), which effectively mens that Top 50 wins favors the Wildcats 8 to 5. That is a large difference. Plus, Arizona doesn't have a bad loss, while Maryland has that ugly Morgan State L on their resume. And for all of the crap Arizona gets for not being able to win away from home, Maryland is only 2-6 in true road games. Not a whole lot better, folks. Arizona's non-conference SOS was 62nd, it's overall SOS 7th. Maryland's were 165th and 31st, respectively. Sure, Maryland's conference is probably tougher as a whole, but Arizona played the tougher schedule.

As for Saint Mary's, I really, really think that the Patty Mills-led Gaels squad is one of the 34 best at-large teams in the country. They don't have the resuem to back it up, because Mills got injured, but he's back, and he looked much better on Friday night in a game against Eastern Washington that was scheduled just two weeks ago. And San Diego State is a personal favorite of mine. I kind-of-sort-of wanted to put in Creighton instead, but I just couldn't do it. Just couldn't do it.

Closing Thoughts

First off, that was hella fun. Quite a bit of work, I ended up working on it for a solid 2 hours-or-so, plus another hour typing all of this into the computer, but it was fun. I reccommend you do it. If things change from my expectations, listed immediately preceding the seedings, I'll post a quick update of sorts tomorrow. But there's my bracket. I would go through and justify, but that'd take forever-and-ever, and that's just not efficient. If you have a question about a certain bubble team getting in or a certain seed, just post it in the comments and I'll respond with my reasoning. As always, completely intelligent and rational people can and will disagree, and this is just my opinion.

Editor's Note: There will be a OGT for the games tomorrow, then a separate one for the actual Selection Sunday proceedings. I'll try to add some other Selection Sunday preview-type pieces, just to add some flavor to the day, but I might not be able to sit down long enough to d oit. I swear, tomorrow, I jump up-and-down out of excitement for a solid, oh, I dunno, 8 hours straight. It's bad.

 

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Comments

Display:

Nice work.

I’m still hearing that Maryland in IN. I’m with you though, just don’t see it.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 8:49 AM CDT reply actions  

For example from The Dagger,

here’s what MJD is saying on Yahoo.

Maryland is in the lock category. I DON"T get it.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions  

Looks pretty reasonable to me...

I guess the million dollar question here is will OU get the 2 w/KU and MU the 3 as I think we all expect…or will Joe Lunardi actually be correct and KU somehow get the 2.

I’m assuming we’ve got an OGT for discussion this afternoon and best believe I’ll be here once the selection show kicks off!!!!!

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen Kemp on Mar 15, 2009 9:21 AM CDT reply actions  

I’d really like to see Creighton get in. I’m not looking up any numbers, but I want them to get in. If they don’t, I won’t stop hearing it from my girlfriends family and specifically her brother (they are from Omaha). Go Jays!

by SweedishHamma on Mar 15, 2009 9:57 AM CDT reply actions  

My cousin is a Jay right now.

And my uncle and aunt both went there, too.

So, I probably ‘want’ them to get in too. And they were a tough one. I just don’t see it. Their best wins were over Dayton and New Mexico, both of which lost early in their conference tournaments.

I won’t be surprised if the Jays do get in, but if I had to guess, I say they don’t.

by rockchalk on Mar 15, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don’t think they deserve to get in by any means, I just want them in for selfish reasons. In no way should Arizona be left out for Maryland or Creighton.

by SweedishHamma on Mar 15, 2009 10:28 AM CDT reply actions  

6 EST

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen Kemp on Mar 15, 2009 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

tyty

I am Jack's unbridled optimism.

by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

ESPN analyzing things all day

It’s something I can’t help but watch but it seems so unnessessary

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 11:17 AM CDT reply actions  

Flipping through the channels, on E!, I just found a show called

“Hot Girls in Scary Places”, “3 USC cheerleaders spend the night in an allegedly haunted hospital and conduct paranormal investigations in an attempt to win $10,000.”

They will put just about anything on TV these days…the sad thing is, I had to turn over and watch for a few minutes purely becaue USC cheerleaders are so hot

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 11:20 AM CDT reply actions  

Is it still on?

Sounds interesting.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

Guess I'll have to research

to make sure there are no camera tricks going on.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

Oh btw

good job rockchalk…looked like a lot of work to put that all together

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 11:49 AM CDT reply actions  

Haven't watched FSU play

much this year, so I’ll go with Duke. However, if Duke doesn’t hit the 3 they are very vulnerable. We’ve all seen that.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah I hadn't either

but FSU really impressed me yesterday against Carolina…Douglas is damn good

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hope so.

I’ve got the whole day pretty much set aside for basketball today.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

is Commando the finish

where Arnold rescues his daughter? I think it is, but not positive. A lot of those movies all run together.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

Arnold

just rolled up on the shore to begin his campaign. Man, what an aresenal he brought.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

seriously

he’s just carrying a rocket launcher in one hand

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think the question is how could you be watching

the anti-climactic first half of hoops when the amazing finish to Commando is about to unfold

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

great point.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

back and forth man,

the beauty of remote control technology.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

That was a hell of an explosion!

and she broke out of her room! Then, her captor just RUNS through the boards that were covering the window!

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

haha I know

Why would htere be just a little panel of boards in the room that they are holding her in?

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

Dude,

he’s taking on an army of 40 guys right now. You can’t really question much of anything here. Just go with it.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

why are the guys shooting at Arnold from the roof

standing up? Shouldn’t they be lying down so they would have more cover?

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

wait did you just see that?

That dude was getting electricuted on the fence and then came off of it and just started beating Arnold’s ass like nothing happened….he’s dead now, though…satisfying, not I can get back to bball

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

This is so awesome.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

seriously

one of those dudes on the roof couldn’t get one hit on him when he’s out in the open?

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

No wife.

Makes days like today SO EASY.

Girlfriend is super pissed at me. Pretty much an ex girlfriend right now.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

i was interested to see where you had Cleveland State seeded

i love that team and i really hope we don’t have to play em, i’m heavily considering taking them with their vegas odds to pull a round one upset

by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:20 PM CDT reply actions  

I think

I’m going to be really nervous for our 1st game no matter what

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

Also

there are some pretty damn good 6 seeds out there, really sucks we’re going to have to play one in the 2nd round when we win….Tennessee, West Virginia, Illinois, and LSU all at 6 seeds right now according to Lunardi, those are some good teams

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

i will guarantee kansas wins their first round game

knock on wood, but there’s no way self hasn’t whipped their asses enough by then to let em come out flat and lose to a shitty team

by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah I hope you're right

I’ve seen virtually no toughness from this team the last week and a half, though, just nervous right now

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

So,

12-11 almost 10 minutes into the game. What has happened to the offense in these tournaments?

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:21 PM CDT reply actions  

and,

nevermind about the offense. Singler just exploded for Duke.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah c'mon FSU

I want a game or I can’t watch this and I’ll have to find some other crappy movie to watch and laugh at

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think Roadhouse is

on after Commando.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

no. enough of this movie bullshit

if i’m gonna be the only one watching basketball then i might as well watch it outside while its nice out

by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm watching some hoops,

just some badass Commando also.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

29-14,

they don’t want any part of this game right now.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

hahha, right?

it’s getting to the point where i’m surprised when their possessions result in a field goal attempt

by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Where is everyone anyway?

I figured rockchalk would’ve been here at gametime

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:30 PM CDT reply actions  

ummmm

ok I was wrong about a close game

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:31 PM CDT reply actions  

Funk!

How’s the trip going so far?

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Great!

Resident Evil 5 is really fucking difficult, but a great time. Co-op is obviously amazing. I’ve already spent a few hundred bucks and haven’t even hit up the bars yet.

I am Jack's unbridled optimism.

by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

that needs to change

also, i was wondering if anybody played the game fallout? i heard that’s good but i rarely play any non-sports games anymore

by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm a Tiger

and Call of Duty fan. Outside of those, I’m clueless.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's not my bag personally.

It’s cut from the same mold as the Oblivion games, which are games I HATE. That being said, for me it’s really “meh”, but I know a lot of people who LOVED it. LOVED it. It was given Game of the Year by multiple publications last year, though I definitely disagreed with that distinction.

I am Jack's unbridled optimism.

by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

SEC

Miss. State and Tennessee are tied up at 18, 10 minutes left in the first half.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:32 PM CDT reply actions  

After watching the Baylor game,

I’m not ready to guarantee anything on a neutral court.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

i'm becoming less and less worried about that game

it would be nice if they coulda just coasted and won on talent alone, but they were a young, unmotivated, banged-up team, and 2 of those things will change by next weekend

by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

OK whoa, basketball

If FSU can get this under 10 by half then they’ve got a chance

by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:41 PM CDT reply actions  

17 now,

that’s a tall order for FSU.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Woot!

SFA up 37-28 on UTSA at the half. Very awesome. C’mon Lumberjacks!

I am Jack's unbridled optimism.

by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:48 PM CDT reply actions  

Hell yes

Eric Bell has scored, too. Victory. He’s a 5’3’’ PG. Awesome to see him out there.

I am Jack's unbridled optimism.

by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah

Though I completely forgot about it already. Thanks.

I am Jack's unbridled optimism.

by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yep.

I suck at brackets though.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh yeah

Me too. Usually by Day 3 my Final Four is wrecked.

I am Jack's unbridled optimism.

by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

this will be the nuttiest tournament of all-time

i can’t remember the last time there wasnt a dominant team like this year

by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

is there another thread we don't know about or somethin?

it feels like there should be way more people on here for a sunday the day of the bracket

by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 1:03 PM CDT reply actions  

New thread.

Sorry for getting up so late.

It’s a FanShot at the top of the page.

Oh, and thanks a billion for ruining my absolutely brilliant Bracket Projection… ;)

by rockchalk on Mar 15, 2009 1:10 PM CDT reply actions  

"CORNELL IS REALLY GOOD"

RockChalk…what on earth are you talking about? Cornell is 1 – 5 against the RPI TOP 150…and their RPI is like 115…they’re close to awful.

by mpfische on Mar 15, 2009 7:48 PM CDT reply actions  

hey

when you post something on one thread, it doesn’t need to copied and pasted to another.

Cool?

Where the Devil Don't Stay.

by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

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