Rock Chalk Talk's Bracket Projection
Everyone else is doing it.
And, with my massive ego and obscene amount of basketball watched, I figure I'm just as qualified as any to put out my own opinion.
So, I figured I'd put my own bracket together. Now, I'm terrible at html table thing-a-ma-jigs, so it won't be anything like that. I'll just list them out. But, the information will be the same.
As always, disagreement and criticism is encouraged. The bracket and, more specifically, the bubble is one of the most hotly-contested debates in all of sport. Naturally, there is going to be massive disagreement. That's fine.
And, obviously, much of this can change. We've still got, at time of publishing, plenty of action to go. Mississippi State could come in and snatch away a bid in the SEC Final, which would change the bracket. Florida State's seeding depends on their ACC Championship finish, just as Ohio State's and Purdue's could change in the Big 10/11 Final.
But, as of Sunday morning, here is how I would do the Tournament if I was the one-man Selection Committee. Man, that'd be the life.
All actual content after the jump...
Just so all of you know, this is assuming the following end results on Sunday. None of the results should matter too much, although a Mississippi State win would take away an at-large bid. Here is what I am expecting:
Tennessee over Mississippi State
Duke over Florida State
Stephen F. Austin over UT-San Antonio
Purdue over Ohio State
With all of that said, here's the best I could come up with.
Seeds
Obviously, some of these will be wrong. Towards the end, I kind of just half-assed the difference between a 15-seed and a 16-seed. Hopefully I at least get some of them correct.
Note: Remember, there are certain rules any bracketologist must follow, most notably to avoid regular season matchups at all costs in the first two rounds, and to prohibit teams from the same conference meeting up until the Elite Eight.
| Seed | South | Midwest | East | West |
| 1 | Louisville (Big East) | Pittsburgh | UNC | UCONN |
| 2 | Duke (ACC) | Memphis (C-USA) | Michigan State | Oklahoma |
| 3 | Missouri (Big 12) | Syracuse | Kansas | Villanova |
| 4 | Wake | Florida State | Purdue (Big 10) | Washington |
| 5 | UCLA | Gonzaga (WCC) | Arizona State | Illinois |
| 6 | West Virginia | Tennessee (SEC) | LSU | Xavier |
| 7 | BYU | Texas | Utah (MWC) | Clemson |
| 8 | Ohio State | Cal | Marquette | Butler |
| 9 | Siena (MAAC) | Texas A&M | Oklahoma State | Boston College |
| 10 | Wisconsin | Michigan | Dayton | Minnesota |
| 11 | Temple (A-10) | San Diego State | USC (Pac 10) | Arizona |
| 12 | VCU (CAA) | Cleveland State (Horizon) | St. Mary's | Utah State (WAC) |
| 13 | Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) | Northern Iowa (MVC) | Akron (MAC) | North Dakota State (Summit) |
| 14 | Binghamton (A-East) | Cornell (Ivy) | Robert Morris (NEC) | American (Patriot) |
| 15 | Morgan State (MEAC) | East Tennessee State (A-Sun) | Stephen F. Austin (Southland) | Portland State (Big Sky) |
| 16 | Play-In Game | Morehead State (OVC) | Pacific/CS-Northridge (Big West) | Radford (Big South) |
Play-In Game will be: Alabama State (SWAC) vs. Chattanooga (Southern)
Pods
I'm not doing mileage trackers, or anything. This is just the best thing I can come up with. Hopefully nothing blows up in my face.
Dayton
(1) Pittsburgh vs. (16) Morehead State (OVC)
(8) California vs. (9) Texas A&M
(1) Louisville vs. (16) Play-In Game -- Chattanooga (Southern) vs. Alabama State (SWAC)
(8) Ohio State vs. (9) Siena (MAAC)
Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Pacific/CS-Northridge (Big West)
(8) Marquette vs. (9) Oklahoma State
(2) Duke (ACC) vs. (15) Morgan State (MEAC)
(7) BYU vs. (10) Wisconsin
Philadelphia
(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Radford (Big South)
(8) Butler vs. (9) Boston College
(3) Villanova vs. (14) American (Patriot)
(6) Xavier vs. (11) Arizona
Kansas City
(2) Memphis vs. (15) East Tennessee State (A-Sun)
(7) Texas vs. (10) Michigan
(2) Oklahoma vs. (15) Portland State (Big Sky)
(7) Clemson vs. (10) Minnesota
Boise
(3) Missouri vs. (14) Binghamton (America East)
(6) West Virginia vs. (11) Temple (A-10)
(3) Kansas vs. (14) Cornell (Ivy)
(6) LSU vs. (11) USC (Pac 10)
Portland
(4) Wake Forest vs. (13) Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
(5) UCLA vs. (12) VCU (CAA)
(4) Washington vs. (13) North Dakota State (Summit)
(5) Illinois vs. (12) Utah State (WAC)
Miami
(3) Syracuse vs. (14) Robert Morris (NEC)
(6) Tennessee (SEC) vs. (11) San Diego State
(4) Florida State vs. (13) Northern Iowa (MVC)
(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) Cleveland State (Horizon)
Minneapolis
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
(7) Utah (MWC) vs. (10) Dayton
(4) Purdue (Big 10) vs. (13) Akron (MAC)
(5) Arizona State vs. (12) St. Mary's
Bubble Talk
For most of the at-larges, it was a piece of cake deciding who went in and who went out. I was mostly just concerned with bracketing and seeding and not breaking any rules, until I hit a snag. There was 3 at-large bids to give out, and 6 just-about-equal teams. At least to me. Obviously, I had to make a decision, eventually. But, it took me about an hour to completely decide. In the end, as you could tell from above, here was what I said:
Last 3 In:
St. Mary's
Arizona
San Diego State
Last 4 Out:
Creighton
Maryland
Penn State
New Mexico
New Mexico wasn't seriously considered, but the other three were. Definitely. At times, I actually had Creighton and Maryland and Penn State as the three in, if only for a bfrief second. The actual teams in changed in my head at least 100 times before I eventually settled on the Aztecs, Gaels and Wildcats. In the end, I thought that those three were the three best teams left. If they were to play a round-robin, and play everyone else, I think that the three I put in would have the best records.
But that wasn't all. Maryland's despicable 7-9 record in the ACC, highlighted by their embarrassing loss to Virginia, along with their non-conference loss to Morgan State did them in, for me. Their wins over Michigan State and North Carolina are both awesome, sure, but they just lost too many games, and had very little depth beyond that. And if you compare them to Arizona, for example, the Wildcats dwarf them. Here is a quick comparison:
| Arizona | Maryland | |
| Record | 19-13 (9-9) | 20-12 (7-9) |
| 1-25 W's* | vs. Zaga^, vs. KU, vs. U-Dub, vs. UCLA | vs. Mich. St.^, vs. UNC, vs. Wake^ |
| 26-50 W's* | vs. USC, vs. SDSU, vs. USC, vs. Wazzu | vs. Michigan, vs. Miami, |
|
101+ L's* |
-- | vs. Morgan State |
| Road Record | 2-9 | 2-6 |
* All rankings are KenPom's rankings, not RPI.
^ Denotes neutral floor victory.
Why, again, is Maryland considered "in" over Arizona? Arizona has a better conference record. Arizona has more Top 25 wins (4 to 3), more 26-50 wins (4 to 2), which effectively mens that Top 50 wins favors the Wildcats 8 to 5. That is a large difference. Plus, Arizona doesn't have a bad loss, while Maryland has that ugly Morgan State L on their resume. And for all of the crap Arizona gets for not being able to win away from home, Maryland is only 2-6 in true road games. Not a whole lot better, folks. Arizona's non-conference SOS was 62nd, it's overall SOS 7th. Maryland's were 165th and 31st, respectively. Sure, Maryland's conference is probably tougher as a whole, but Arizona played the tougher schedule.
As for Saint Mary's, I really, really think that the Patty Mills-led Gaels squad is one of the 34 best at-large teams in the country. They don't have the resuem to back it up, because Mills got injured, but he's back, and he looked much better on Friday night in a game against Eastern Washington that was scheduled just two weeks ago. And San Diego State is a personal favorite of mine. I kind-of-sort-of wanted to put in Creighton instead, but I just couldn't do it. Just couldn't do it.
Closing Thoughts
First off, that was hella fun. Quite a bit of work, I ended up working on it for a solid 2 hours-or-so, plus another hour typing all of this into the computer, but it was fun. I reccommend you do it. If things change from my expectations, listed immediately preceding the seedings, I'll post a quick update of sorts tomorrow. But there's my bracket. I would go through and justify, but that'd take forever-and-ever, and that's just not efficient. If you have a question about a certain bubble team getting in or a certain seed, just post it in the comments and I'll respond with my reasoning. As always, completely intelligent and rational people can and will disagree, and this is just my opinion.
Editor's Note: There will be a OGT for the games tomorrow, then a separate one for the actual Selection Sunday proceedings. I'll try to add some other Selection Sunday preview-type pieces, just to add some flavor to the day, but I might not be able to sit down long enough to d oit. I swear, tomorrow, I jump up-and-down out of excitement for a solid, oh, I dunno, 8 hours straight. It's bad.
0 recs |
118 comments
|
Comments
Nice work.
I’m still hearing that Maryland in IN. I’m with you though, just don’t see it.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
For example from The Dagger,
here’s what MJD is saying on Yahoo.
Maryland is in the lock category. I DON"T get it.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
One more w/ Maryland
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/1087237.html
I just got back from your mom's basement.
Looks pretty reasonable to me...
I guess the million dollar question here is will OU get the 2 w/KU and MU the 3 as I think we all expect…or will Joe Lunardi actually be correct and KU somehow get the 2.
I’m assuming we’ve got an OGT for discussion this afternoon and best believe I’ll be here once the selection show kicks off!!!!!
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
I’d really like to see Creighton get in. I’m not looking up any numbers, but I want them to get in. If they don’t, I won’t stop hearing it from my girlfriends family and specifically her brother (they are from Omaha). Go Jays!
My cousin is a Jay right now.
And my uncle and aunt both went there, too.
So, I probably ‘want’ them to get in too. And they were a tough one. I just don’t see it. Their best wins were over Dayton and New Mexico, both of which lost early in their conference tournaments.
I won’t be surprised if the Jays do get in, but if I had to guess, I say they don’t.
What time is Selection Show?
I am Jack's unbridled optimism.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 10:40 AM CDT reply actions
6 EST
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
tyty
I am Jack's unbridled optimism.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions
ESPN analyzing things all day
It’s something I can’t help but watch but it seems so unnessessary
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 11:17 AM CDT reply actions
Flipping through the channels, on E!, I just found a show called
“Hot Girls in Scary Places”, “3 USC cheerleaders spend the night in an allegedly haunted hospital and conduct paranormal investigations in an attempt to win $10,000.”
They will put just about anything on TV these days…the sad thing is, I had to turn over and watch for a few minutes purely becaue USC cheerleaders are so hot
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 11:20 AM CDT reply actions
you can never tell on these "haunted" shows
what is real and what is production tricks
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Guess I'll have to research
to make sure there are no camera tricks going on.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
Also one of the greatest Arnold movies ever, "Commando", is on AMC
If you’ve never seen this, you have to, it is hillarious
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 11:28 AM CDT reply actions
oh a great scene in a mall is coming up where Arnold defies being a human
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions
speaking of defies being human,
I need to watch 24 from Monday.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
watched the first 4 seasons and loved them
since, though, haven’t watched….has this season been good?
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, it's a little farther out there than all previous season.
But still very good.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
Oh btw
good job rockchalk…looked like a lot of work to put that all together
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 11:49 AM CDT reply actions
Haven't watched FSU play
much this year, so I’ll go with Duke. However, if Duke doesn’t hit the 3 they are very vulnerable. We’ve all seen that.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
yeah I hadn't either
but FSU really impressed me yesterday against Carolina…Douglas is damn good
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
I've got a feeling this ACC game is going to be a good one
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:08 PM CDT reply actions
Hope so.
I’ve got the whole day pretty much set aside for basketball today.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
I'll switch over to the epic finish of Commando, though, here and there
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
is Commando the finish
where Arnold rescues his daughter? I think it is, but not positive. A lot of those movies all run together.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
yup
a young alissa milana I believe
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Arnold
just rolled up on the shore to begin his campaign. Man, what an aresenal he brought.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
seriously
he’s just carrying a rocket launcher in one hand
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
how could you guys be watching commando instead of hoops?
by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the question is how could you be watching
the anti-climactic first half of hoops when the amazing finish to Commando is about to unfold
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions
back and forth man,
the beauty of remote control technology.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
That was a hell of an explosion!
and she broke out of her room! Then, her captor just RUNS through the boards that were covering the window!
I just got back from your mom's basement.
haha I know
Why would htere be just a little panel of boards in the room that they are holding her in?
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Dude,
he’s taking on an army of 40 guys right now. You can’t really question much of anything here. Just go with it.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
haha and that grenade that just blew up next to him
seems to have made him stronger
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
why are the guys shooting at Arnold from the roof
standing up? Shouldn’t they be lying down so they would have more cover?
I just got back from your mom's basement.
I know
they don’t seem too bright
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
wait did you just see that?
That dude was getting electricuted on the fence and then came off of it and just started beating Arnold’s ass like nothing happened….he’s dead now, though…satisfying, not I can get back to bball
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions
seriously
one of those dudes on the roof couldn’t get one hit on him when he’s out in the open?
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
warden what does your wife say about all this nonsense
by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
No wife.
Makes days like today SO EASY.
Girlfriend is super pissed at me. Pretty much an ex girlfriend right now.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
Lunardi's got us as a 3 seed in Minneapolis today
that seems about right to me
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:12 PM CDT reply actions
i was interested to see where you had Cleveland State seeded
i love that team and i really hope we don’t have to play em, i’m heavily considering taking them with their vegas odds to pull a round one upset
I think
I’m going to be really nervous for our 1st game no matter what
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Also
there are some pretty damn good 6 seeds out there, really sucks we’re going to have to play one in the 2nd round when we win….Tennessee, West Virginia, Illinois, and LSU all at 6 seeds right now according to Lunardi, those are some good teams
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
i will guarantee kansas wins their first round game
knock on wood, but there’s no way self hasn’t whipped their asses enough by then to let em come out flat and lose to a shitty team
by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah I hope you're right
I’ve seen virtually no toughness from this team the last week and a half, though, just nervous right now
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
So,
12-11 almost 10 minutes into the game. What has happened to the offense in these tournaments?
I just got back from your mom's basement.
and,
nevermind about the offense. Singler just exploded for Duke.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
yeah c'mon FSU
I want a game or I can’t watch this and I’ll have to find some other crappy movie to watch and laugh at
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions
honestly never watched it
obviously heard about it many many times
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
no. enough of this movie bullshit
if i’m gonna be the only one watching basketball then i might as well watch it outside while its nice out
by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
If FSU will make this a game I'll be watching it all the way
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
hahha, right?
it’s getting to the point where i’m surprised when their possessions result in a field goal attempt
by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Where is everyone anyway?
I figured rockchalk would’ve been here at gametime
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:30 PM CDT reply actions
ummmm
ok I was wrong about a close game
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:31 PM CDT reply actions
SFA-UTSA is close!
I am Jack's unbridled optimism.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Great!
Resident Evil 5 is really fucking difficult, but a great time. Co-op is obviously amazing. I’ve already spent a few hundred bucks and haven’t even hit up the bars yet.
I am Jack's unbridled optimism.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
that needs to change
also, i was wondering if anybody played the game fallout? i heard that’s good but i rarely play any non-sports games anymore
by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm a Tiger
and Call of Duty fan. Outside of those, I’m clueless.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
It's not my bag personally.
It’s cut from the same mold as the Oblivion games, which are games I HATE. That being said, for me it’s really “meh”, but I know a lot of people who LOVED it. LOVED it. It was given Game of the Year by multiple publications last year, though I definitely disagreed with that distinction.
I am Jack's unbridled optimism.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions
SEC
Miss. State and Tennessee are tied up at 18, 10 minutes left in the first half.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
SEC basketball is hard for me to watch sometimes
don’t know why…not as bad as Big 10, though
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
agreed, big ten has been the most boring basketball i've seen in a long time
how the fuck did we get spanked up in east lansing like that? yikes
by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Mich St. is the one exception
I’d say
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
i think they were a better team when we played em
right now, they can’t score to save their lives
by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
i guarantee if we played them today we win by a dozen on a neutral court
by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
After watching the Baylor game,
I’m not ready to guarantee anything on a neutral court.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
i'm becoming less and less worried about that game
it would be nice if they coulda just coasted and won on talent alone, but they were a young, unmotivated, banged-up team, and 2 of those things will change by next weekend
by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions
OK whoa, basketball
If FSU can get this under 10 by half then they’ve got a chance
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:41 PM CDT reply actions
yeah they got a few quick buckets there
by I need more Esteban on Mar 15, 2009 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions
money in the bank
duke was givin 5.5 and theyre likely to win by 30 now
by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions

I am Jack's unbridled optimism.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I actually will put a quick FanShot up.
Kansas is in the ‘Next Four Out’ in most circles, so I will watch to see whether we can sneak in or not.
Woot!
SFA up 37-28 on UTSA at the half. Very awesome. C’mon Lumberjacks!
I am Jack's unbridled optimism.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:48 PM CDT reply actions
Hell yes
Eric Bell has scored, too. Victory. He’s a 5’3’’ PG. Awesome to see him out there.
I am Jack's unbridled optimism.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah
Though I completely forgot about it already. Thanks.
I am Jack's unbridled optimism.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh yeah
Me too. Usually by Day 3 my Final Four is wrecked.
I am Jack's unbridled optimism.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Mar 15, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions
this will be the nuttiest tournament of all-time
i can’t remember the last time there wasnt a dominant team like this year
by Danny Satan on Mar 15, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
is there another thread we don't know about or somethin?
it feels like there should be way more people on here for a sunday the day of the bracket
I wondered why you weren't commenting on the other thread.
It can be found here.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
New thread.
Sorry for getting up so late.
It’s a FanShot at the top of the page.
Oh, and thanks a billion for ruining my absolutely brilliant Bracket Projection… ;)
"CORNELL IS REALLY GOOD"
RockChalk…what on earth are you talking about? Cornell is 1 – 5 against the RPI TOP 150…and their RPI is like 115…they’re close to awful.

by 














